Tuesday Sharp Report: Pros Taking Advantage of Windy Totals
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Weather can have a huge influence on baseball totals. When the wind is blowing in it can knock down potential homers and turn them into warning-track outs. In the same vein, wind blowing out can push deep fly balls into first-row souvenirs. With heavy winds (and cold temperatures) expected throughout much of April, sharp bettors will be focusing on how to turn inclement weather and soft totals into units won.
After analyzing Tuesday’s 14-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 4:05, 4:35, 7:10 and 10:10 p.m. ET.
All data as of 2:15 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay Rays-New York Yankees Under 7.5
4:05 p.m. ET
Wiseguys have been in love with this Under ever since the line came out. Last night they hammered Under 8.5 at Pinnacle and then came back moments later and hit Under 8. Earlier this afternoon, sharps tripled down on Under 8 at Pinnacle. The total is down to 7.5 and the Under is still getting juiced up (-120), so it may drop even further to 7. Why are sharps steaming the Under so hard? Because of the weather. Yesterday’s game was snowed out. And today’s forecast calls for light rain, low 40s and wind blowing in from center field.
Seattle Mariners-San Francisco Giants Over 8.5
4:35 p.m. ET
We’re seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes bet split with this Interleague total. With Ty Blach coming off a shutout win over Clayton Kershaw, more than 60% of bets are taking the Under. However, nearly 50% of dollars are taking the Over, largely because it’s a beautiful day (clear, low 60s) with the wind blowing straight out to center. Earlier this morning, sharps at Pinnacle triggered a pair of steam and reverse line moves on Over 8.5.
Philadelphia Phillies-New York Mets Under 7.5
7:10 p.m. ET
Recreational bettors see a low total and automatically think it has to go Over. Not the sharps. They’re eying another cold, windy East Coast Under. Only 39% are taking the Under but it accounts for nearly 80% of dollars, signaling big sharp money. Wiseguys hit Under 8 at Pinnacle and ABC, causing the line to fall to 7.5. The forecast calls for low 40s and the wind is blowing in from right to left, another benefit to sharp Under bettors.
Colorado Rockies-San Diego Padres Under 8
10:10 p.m. ET
Average Joe bettors see the name “Rockies” and automatically think Over. But this game isn’t at Coors Field, it’s at Petco Park where the elevation is low and the wind is blowing in from left to right. More than 60% are going Over but it only accounts for 44% of dollars, signaling predominant Average Joe money. Wiseguys triggered a trio of Under 8.5 moves across the market, first at CRIS, then Pinnacle and ABC. These moves are notable because they come from three of the sharpest offshore books.
Notable Reverse Line Movement
Cincinnati Reds (22% bets, 41% dollars) +165 to +155
Baltimore Orioles (17% bets, 25% dollars) +223 to +197
Arizona Diamondbacks (19% bets, 35% dollars) +156 to +146
Oakland Atheltics (41% bets, 50% dollars) -107 to -137
San Diego Padres (37% bets, 64% dollars) +107 to -104
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
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Pictured: Colorado Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon takes batting practice at Petco Park