The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox on August 24, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Yankees will look to avoid an embarrassing four-game sweep at home versus the rival Red Sox on this week's edition of Sunday Night Baseball. Boston has outscored New York 19- 4 in the first three games of this series and owns a record of 8-1 versus the Yankees this season.
The Yankees are heavily favoured to win Sunday's matchup, though, as Dustin May (4.59 ERA, 119 and 2/3 IP) will face off against Carlos Rodon (3.24 ERA, 152 and 2/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction
- Red Sox vs Yankees pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (+130) (Bet365, Play to +120)
My Red Sox vs Yankees best bet is Yankees -1.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Yankees Odds, Spread, Best Bet
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +145 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -175 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (-150); Yankees -1.5 (+125)
Red Sox vs Yankees Totals: 8.5 ( O -115 / U -105)
Red Sox vs Yankees Moneyline: Red Sox +145; Yankees -175
Red Sox vs Yankees Best Bet: Yankees -1.5
Red Sox vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| Dustin May (BOS) | Stat | Carlos Rodon (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-9 | W-L | 13-7 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 4.59/4.81 | ERA /xERA | 3.24/3.17 |
| 4.48/4.30 | FIP / xFIP | 3.81/3.82 |
| 1.36 | WHIP | 1.07 |
| 12.8 | K-BB% | 17.6 |
| 43.9 | GB% | 42.3 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 96 | Location+ | 96 |
Nick Martin's Red Sox vs Yankees Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Slumping Sox in Tough Spot
May has stabilized with a pair of high-quality starts after a shaky showing in his Red Sox debut and now holds an ERA of 2.87 throughout his first 15 and 2/3 innings with his new side. He has allowed a batting average of .292 and been hard-hit 52% of the time, but found success in stranding 84.7% of base-runners since joining the Red Sox.
Throughout his last ten starts, May has struggled to an ERA of 5.12 and holds an xFIP of 4.90. May's pitch metrics are down considerably relative to his career numbers, as over the last ten starts, he holds a Stuff+ of 105 and a Pitching+ of 97, and he has recorded a strikeout minus walk rate of just 9.9% in those outings.
Rodon made back-to-back starts versus the Red Sox in June, and Boston hit the dominant lefty well in those outings, as he allowed eight earned runs across ten innings of work. While they did find success in those two outings versus Rodon, since July 1, the Red Sox hold a wRC+ of 93 versus lefties, rank 19th in hard-hit rate, and 22nd in BB/K ratio.
Boston will remain without Wilyer Abreu in this matchup, who has slugged .486 and generated 2.7 WAR this season.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Rodon to Bounce Back Against Rivals
While Yankee Stadium has played as the 12th most favorable ballpark for run creation over the last two seasons, Rodon has fared quite well pitching in front of the Yankee faithful. He holds an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 0.86 in 73 innings of work this season and pitched to an ERA of 3.11 at home in 2024.
Rodon's current 3.24 ERA seems to be an accurate depiction of his season, as he's pitched to an xERA of 3.17 and an xFIP of 3.82 across 152 and 2/3 innings this season. He's struck out 27.3% of batters and ranks in the 88th percentile in whiff rate, and he continues to find success using his elite slider as a put-away pitch.
Rodon enters this start off of a pair of strong outings, as he's allowed only three earned runs throughout 13 innings over his last two starts, with a Stuff+ of 104.
While it can be foolish to overrate motivation angles as a handicapper, this high-profile matchup will certainly draw some extra attention in the Yankee clubhouse as they look to bounce back from a 12-1 loss versus a Red Sox side that has owned them this season.
The Yankees hold the second-best wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season and have remained in strong form versus righties since July 1 with a wRC+ of 113. They also hold the second-highest hard-hit rate versus RHP since July 1 and rank ninth in BB/K ratio.
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
It's been a lethargic start to the series for the Yankees offensively, but they will have a good opportunity to bounce back versus May in this matchup. May's velocity is down considerably compared to earlier on in his career, and it seems unlikely that he will continue to offer improved results with his new side.
The Red Sox have found success against Rodon so far this season, but it's still hard to dispute that Rodon offers a significant edge over May when he is at his best. The Yankees' bullpen still projects to be among the best in the league on paper and should be capable of offering better results than we have seen recently in the near future.
This pitching matchup offers the Yankees a good opportunity to show some pride at home versus their greatest rival and avoid a rare four-game sweep. At a long price of +130, I'm happy to back the Yankees getting right and earning a comfortable win in this spot.
Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 +130 (Bet365, Play to +120)
Moneyline
Backing the Yankees to win at -165 also looks to provide value and is another good option for bettors willing to lay more juice.
Run Line (Spread)
As outlined, backing the Yankees to cover the run-line is my favorite play from this matchup.
Over/Under
A total of 8.5 seems fair for this matchup.
