MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (July 24): Our Bets for Angels vs. Athletics
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Chapman
Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics Betting Odds
|Angels odds||+130 [BET NOW]|
|Athletics odds||-150 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||8.5 (-115/-105) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Friday, 10:10 p.m. ET|
Odds above as of Friday at 3:25 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Bet this game at DraftKings and win an extra $250 if Mike Trout gets at least 1 hit tonight.
Is it really a true baseball betting slate without a West Coast matchup going off after 10 p.m. ET? Of course not.
Friday’s nightcap comes by way of the American League West, as the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics will open their seasons with a 10:10 p.m. ET first pitch (Andrew Heaney vs. Frankie Montas).
PICK: Athletics Moneyline (-140) vs. Angels
Following analysis published Friday morning.
The A’s have been one of the most productive and profitable teams against left-handed pitching over the past couple of seasons — and it shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Since July 1, 2018, the Athletics are 53-23 (69.7%, +21.6 units) when facing a left-handed starter, including a 34-14 record (71%) last season.
The A’s can run out a full lineup of right-handed hitters whenever they desire, and their only regular lefty, first baseman Matt Olson, is a league-average hitter against same-sided pitching.
Over the past two years, the remainder of their lineup has featured eight above-average bats against southpaw pitching: Mark Canha (135 wRC+), Stephen Piscotty (133 wRC+), Khris Davis (130 wRC+), Marcus Semien (128 wRC+), Matt Chapman (125 wRC+), Ramon Laureano (121 wRC+), Chad Pinder (115 wRC+) and second-year Catcher Sean Murphy (103 wrC+).
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
As a team, they have posted a 118 wRC+ against lefties over that same span – the third-best mark in baseball behind the Astros (129 wRC+) and Yankees (121 wRC+).
Angels starter Andrew Heaney (4.18 xFIP in 2019) has been pretty effective against Oakland over six career outings (38.1 IP, 3.99 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7 BB, 43 K), but I do show the marvelous Frankie Montas (3.47 xFIP in 2019) leading the A’s to victory 62.2% of the time on Opening Day — implied odds of -164.
I would bet Oakland up to -145 (implied 59.2%), at a 3% edge.
It should not be a shocker that I’m starting off my 2020 MLB season with a bet on the Athletics, a team I’m very high on this season.
I like what Montas did during the break to stay sharp, while Heaney could be limited tonight after missing his last warmup start with back stiffness. And like Zerillo mentioned, I just love this A’s lineup against lefty starters. They have the entire core of their lineup back from last year, a season in which they mashed southpaws from start to finish.
The A’s finished sixth in the league with an .811 OPS against LHP — almost 50 points higher than their number against righties — and that was with a horrid year from slugger Khris Davis.
Give me the A’s here at -140 or better.