Zerillo’s Daily MLB Betting Model Projections (Updated September 27)
Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Westgate SuperBook
Last updated: Sunday, September 27
This season, I’m publishing my projections for every MLB game right here. This page will be updated each morning.
Download the spreadsheet below to compare odds from your sportsbook to my projections to see if there’s an edge. My projections include moneylines totals and team totals, both full game, and First 5 innings.
You can also find my full-game projections within individual game pages in the Gameday Edge section in the Action App.
Daily MLB Projections
Note: This works best if you’re on a computer. If you’re in the Action app, refer to the Gameday EDGE module on each game page for my projections. You can also email this article to yourself to view it on a desktop, where downloading the sheet is much easier.
An example of one of the sheets is below:
Note: Please check my Twitter for any updates if there are lineup/pitching changes.
How Should I Use These?
Download the spreadsheet daily and input the best odds from your sportsbooks. It will automatically calculate your edge on each bet type and recommend a potential bet if there is a significant edge.
Note: The Bet Rec function does not work in some older versions of Excel. However, the function is currently set to trigger at 3.5% in the edge columns for moneylines and totals, and at 5% for team totals.
How Do These Projections Work?
Use these numbers as a guide, rather than as gospel.
While my model does account for many things, I put these numbers out well in advance of starting lineup and umpire announcements – so there are certain late adjustments that I cannot fully account for.
Want to learn more about my model? Check out my deep dive on how it works, and how to best leverage these daily projections.