Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 9: Will Shane Bieber Shut Down the Angels?
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Shane Bieber
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Monday's slate of games, including how to bet the New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
After their 10-5 win over the Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball, the Yankees have all but put a nail through Boston’s 2019 title hopes.
The Red Sox are now eight games back of Oakland for the second AL Wild Card spot; with 18 games left to play in their season – and the organization also dismissed General Manager Dave Dombrowski following Sunday’s loss.
It has been a bit of an unlucky year for the reigning World Series champions, who own a +100 run differential and have an expected record that is three wins better than their actual record – but Dombrowski also signed Chris Sale to a five year, $145 million extension in March; and the lefty was clearly less than 100% at the time of the deal.
Boston also owes David Price $32 million per year through 2022 – potentially leaving the team over-extended on pitching payroll going into next season if either or both lefties are unable to bounce back from their injuries.
The Yankees lead the season series 13-5, so who will get the win in the 19th, and final 2019 clash in baseball’s biggest rivalry?
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 3-2 against full-game moneylines and 4-2-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Marlins, Rays, Padres, Pirates and Tigers as full-game plays. The model also likes those teams, in addition to the Astros and Brewers as F5 plays.
My plays went 4-2, and I finished up 1.48 units for the day.
It was a mostly positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained five cents against the sides that I played but also gained an additional 60 cents against the three teams that I included in my parlays – with Oakland’s moneyline moving from -275 to -330 (+55).
MLB Betting Model for Monday, Sept. 9
Today, the model recommends four full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels, Marlins, Padres and Yankees as full-game plays. The model also likes Angels and Marlins as F5 plays.
The Yankees offense rank seconds in MLB with a 126 wRC+ since the All-Star break, and first with a 149 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. They have a .302 batting average with 43 doubles and 42 homers, in 605 at-bats over that span.
In the pitching matchup, Eduardo Rodriguez has the better ERA, but James Paxton has the advantage in the underlying metrics:
Rodriguez allows weaker contact, but Paxton owns better control over the strike zone. Rodriguez ranks in the top 8% amongst all pitchers in exit velocity, and in the top four percent for hard-hit rate allowed.
Meanwhile, Paxton ranked in the top 6% of the league for strikeout rate in 2018 – but in the bottom three percent amongst pitchers for hard-hit rate.
The higher that Paxton’s fly-ball rate has climbed, the more home runs he has allowed:
Paxton allowed 23 homers in 28 starts (160.1 IP) last season and has already allowed 22 in 25 starts (132 IP) in 2019 – so he should easily set a new career-high.
He’s also been significantly better at home (.290 wOBA) than on the road (.354 wOBA), which is interesting as the opposite held true in 2018 (.377 wOBA at home in Seattle, .268 wOBA on the road), and I’ll continue to keep an eye on that split.
As for Eduardo Rodriguez, the Red Sox lefty has increased his groundball rate by 10% over 2018:
His pitch mix has remained relatively stable with 2018 – though he has expanded his combined rate of changeups and sinkers by over six percent.
But Eduardo has experienced an increase in groundball rate across his entire arsenal:
He’s honed his focus on one area of the strike zone in 2019 – low and inside to lefties (or low and away to righties).
Compare his heat map from 2018:
With a much more refined focus in 2019:
That sinker that dives in towards the hands of a lefty completely eats them up – causing whiffs or weak contact on the ground:
In the 10 p.m. ET slate, I like Patrick Sandoval and the Angels going against Shane Bieber and the Indians.
For one, they’re a relatively small dog, taking considerable public action against them, while coming off of a loss:
That system is 58-62 in 2019, but a consistent $100 bettor would have generated a profit of $2,454 this year by playing these contrarian teams in every game.
Sandoval owns a 27% strikeout rate through his first three starts, and his slow curve looks to be an above-average to plus offering:
The lefty has the ceiling of a future No. 4 starter, and he has drastically improved his changeup quality in the past couple of seasons.
He throws the off-speed pitch over one-third of the time, his second most frequently used offering:
It will be a tall task to get past Shane Bieber (3.24 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.13 xFIP), but there is considerable line value on the Angels on Monday night.
Bets (so far) for Sept. 9
- Los Angeles Angels (+144) Game Moneyline
- Miami Marlins (+178) Game Moneyline
- New York Yankees (-112) Game Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (+127) Game Moneyline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 9/9
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.