Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 9: Will Shane Bieber Shut Down the Angels?


Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Shane Bieber

Sep 09, 2019, 07:20 PM EDT
  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes Monday's slate of games, including how to bet the New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET).
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

After their 10-5 win over the Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball, the Yankees have all but put a nail through Boston’s 2019 title hopes.

The Red Sox are now eight games back of Oakland for the second AL Wild Card spot; with 18 games left to play in their season – and the organization also dismissed General Manager Dave Dombrowski following Sunday’s loss.

It has been a bit of an unlucky year for the reigning World Series champions, who own a +100 run differential and have an expected record that is three wins better than their actual record – but Dombrowski also signed Chris Sale to a five year, $145 million extension in March; and the lefty was clearly less than 100% at the time of the deal.

Boston also owes David Price $32 million per year through 2022 – potentially leaving the team over-extended on pitching payroll going into next season if either or both lefties are unable to bounce back from their injuries.

The Yankees lead the season series 13-5, so who will get the win in the 19th, and final 2019 clash in baseball’s biggest rivalry?

Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 3-2 against full-game moneylines and 4-2-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Marlins, Rays, Padres, Pirates and Tigers as full-game plays. The model also likes those teams, in addition to the Astros and Brewers as F5 plays.

My plays went 4-2, and I finished up 1.48 units for the day.

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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