For Thursday, July 3, I'm on 4 MLB home run props: Jazz Chisholm, Trent Grisham, Taylor Ward and Mike Trout.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Thursday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Thursday, July 3
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for July 3
Jazz Chisholm (+575)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Chris Bassitt)
I'm going heavy on the Yankees' lefties today.
Chris Bassitt has been an entirely different pitcher by month this season. He started off as one of the best in the league and has slowly seen his xFIP rise each month. He's had some of the largest home run splits of any pitcher over the past few years, allowing 2.03 HR/9 to lefties in 2023, 1.54 HR/9 in 2024 and 1.26 HR/9 in 2025.
This ballpark has also been one of the best in the league for lefty power this season, ranking third according to park factors.
Additionally, Jazz Chisholm has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the past week with four homers in his past six games. I have the true odds of Chisholm homering today at around +400, making this a great EV bet.
Trent Grisham (+575)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Chris Bassitt)
Everything I wrote about Chris Bassitt above applies here as well.
As for Trent Grisham, he got injured the other night, but played a few innings last night so I won't be surprised to see him play tonight. Grisham's underlying numbers have been great this season and I have the true odds of him homering over 100 points lower, making this a great EV bet.
Taylor Ward (+500)
at Braves (SP: RHP Bryce Elder)
I'm going heavy on the Angels' righties today.
Bryce Elder has been absolutely crushed this season by righty power, giving up a 2.17 HR/9. Elder doesn't give up a ton of fly balls, but in his career he's always had a large HR/FB rate to righties due to the near 40% hard-contact rate he allows.
Additionally, the Angels' righties hit a ton of fly balls between Mike Trout (41.1% FB), Taylor Ward (51.8% FB), Logan O'Hoppe (41.7% FB) and Jo Adell (41.6% FB). Ward is having a career year with 20 homers over 83 games and the underlying numbers have been fantastic.
I have the true odds around +400 for Ward to homer today, making this a great EV bet.
Mike Trout (+390)
at Braves (SP: RHP Bryce Elder)
Mike Trout, as mentioned above, hits a ton of fly balls and Bryce Elder has been vulnerable to righties throughout his career. Everything I wrote about Elder above applies here as well.
Trout has been a bit underwhelming recently, but the underlying numbers are still good with a 16.3% barrel rate and a 44% hard-contact rate. I have the true odds of Trout homering today at under +300, which makes this a good EV bet.
