There are 10 games on the MLB calendar for Thursday, July 3, and our MLB betting experts have already dug through the odds to make their picks and find the best value on the board.
Today's MLB best bets include a pair of first five-inning moneyline plays, a player prop, and a team total pick. So, continue reading for today's MLB predictions.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:10 p.m. | |
  | 6:45 p.m. | |
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Derek Carty's Twins vs Marlins Pick: Perez Showing Value
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 1.44 walks allowed for Eury Perez compared to 1.94 walks allowed implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 57% of the time, resulting in a 43% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $42.90.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Eury Perez Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+150)
| | | |
Kyle Murray's Tigers vs Nationals Best Bet: Matchup Favors Detroit
By Kyle Murray
This is a higher team total, but I think the Tigers are more than deserving of it. They clearly have a top-five offense, and now they get a great matchup against Jake Irvin and then a bad and depleted Nationals bullpen.
Irvin is an excellent matchup for the Tigers, as their projected lineup has five lefties to go along with a couple of their better hitters, who happen to be right-handed. Irvin has struggled against both sides this season and has allowed a .210 ISO and a .339 wOBA on a 56.7% hard-contact rate and a 13.5% barrel rate.
Pick: Detroit Tigers Over 5.5 Team Total (+112)
| | | |
Charlie Wright's Angels vs Braves Best Bet: Is the Wrong Team Favored?
I’m surprised we’re getting José Soriano and the Angels as F5 'dogs. Soriano had a miserable start last time out, allowing eight earned runs against Washington, but he was coming off a dominant three-start stretch of two earned runs allowed over 20 2/3 innings. Soriano’s SIERA is a solid 3.82, and his xFIP is down at 3.47. He even showed some strikeout upside in June, with 35 strikeouts over 28 1/3 innings.
Bryce Elder was pounded last month, posting an 8.25 ERA over five starts. He’s allowed 18 earned runs over his past three starts, including five homers. Elder had an 8:8 K:BB in that span. He’d probably be back in the minors if Atlanta’s rotation wasn’t so banged up.
Atlanta has struggled mightily on offense recently, ranking bottom five in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the start of June. The Angels have been middling vs. right-handed pitching, but there’s plenty of power in the lineup and tonight’s projected group has five hitters with ISOs of .188 or higher against right-handed pitching this season.
Pick: Angels First 5 Innings Moneyline (+105)
| | | |
Kyle Murray's Giants vs Diamondbacks Best Bet: Back Ray Against Former Team
By Kyle Murray
Robbie Ray is set to take the bump for the Giants against his former team, and I will happily back him as he has been very good this season. Ray has allowed just a .131 ISO and a .278 wOBA, while also striking out 27.6% of hitters. On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a ton of hard contact and barrels, which has led to him a 5.38 ERA on the season.
Pick: Giants First 5 Innings Moneyline (-125)
| | | |
