Tuesday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Indians-Red Sox, Four Other Games
Francisco Lindor and Andrew Benintendi. Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
- Sharps are betting five of Monday's MLB games, headlined by Cleveland Indians-Boston Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET) with Boston listed as a -151 favorite and an over/under of 9.
- Wiseguys have also taken sides in Astros-Mariners and Twins-White Sox while playing over/unders in Yankees-Marlins and Braves-Pirates.
Wiseguys kept their winning streak alive last night, losing with the Pirates (-125) but cashing with the Giants (+109) and White Sox (+146), earning +1.55 units overall.
Remember: flat betting, always bet to risk, not bet to win! With a loaded Tuesday board, pro players will look to pick their spots and keep the good vibes going.
After analyzing Tuesday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed five MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:10 p.m., 8:10 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
- Sharp angle: Under 7.5
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
The Braves beat the Pirates, 1-0, last night, handing contrarian Under backers a sweatless win. Tonight, we’re seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes disagreement with the total.
Nearly 60% of bets are going Over, but more than 80% of dollars are on the Under. Sharps at Pinnacle and YouWager got down hard on the Under 8, causing it to fall to 7.5 .
Even though the total fell, sharps at 5Dimes hit the Under 7.5. That signals increased confidence in the Under.
Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox
- Sharp angle: Under 9
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
In the most heavily bet game of the night, public players see the vaunted Red Sox lineup at home against Justin Bieber, I mean, Shane Bieber (4.37 ERA) and say easy Over.
However, despite 75% of bets going Over, the total has fallen from 9.5 to 9 .
This reverse line movement was caused by a pair of bet signals on the Under 9.5 at Sportsbook and Carib. This Under also fits the profitable Bet Labs system: Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+186.96 units since 2005).
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New York Yankees at Miami Marlins
- Sharp angle: Under 7.5
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
In Giancarlo Stanton’s return to Miami, more than 80% of bets are taking the Over. However, the total has fallen from 8 to 7.5.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the total to give public Over backers a better number? Because sharps have been hitting the Under all day, creating big liability .
Pros at GTBets, 5Dimes, Sportsbook and SIA all got down hard on the Under. Not only did the total fall to 7.5, but the 7.5 Under is being juiced to -115, indicating it may even go to 7.
As of now, the roof is open, and the wind is blowing straight in at 5-8 mph. If the roof is closed, that’s also good for the Under.
Since 2005, Unders in domes or retractable-roof stadiums have produced +74.15 units won.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
- Sharp angle: White Sox +103
- First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
The South Siders can’t possibly win three in a row, can they? Yes they can, say the sharps.
With Michael Kopech making his MLB debut, Chicago is getting pnly 45% of bets but 67% of dollars and has moved from +125 to +101.
This combination of smart money and reverse line movement is a clear indication that Goodfellas are loading up on the ChiSox.
Pros at CRIS and Carib hammered CHW +126, +115 and +112. Chicago also fits the profitable Bet Labs system: Bad Team After Win (+163.47 units since 2005).
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
- Sharp angle: Mariners +120
- First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
The Mariners came up huge for the sharps last night, winning, 7-4, as +153 dogs, garnering only 25% of bets. The public says there’s no way the mighty Astros can lose two in a row, but wiseguys aren’t buying the Gambler’s Fallacy.
Seattle is getting only 38% of bets but 62% of dollars, signaling smart money in its favor. The line has also plummeted in its direction, going from +129 to +115 .
This massive reverse line movement was caused by sharps at BetOnline and 5Dimes getting down hard on Seattle. The M’s are also a divisional dog with a high total, a profitable spot since 2005.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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