The Detroit Tigers host the Houston Astros on August 19, 2025. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Astros will look to respond Tuesday after suffering a 10-0 beatdown in Monday's series opener, but are heavy underdogs as Detroit native Hunter Brown (2.45 ERA, 143 IP) will face off against reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (2.42 ERA, 152 and 1/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Astros vs Tigers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Astros vs Tigers Prediction
- Astros vs Tigers pick: Under 7 (-105, play to -110)
My Astros vs Tigers best bet is under 7 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Tigers Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 7 -116o / -105u | +134 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 7 -116o / -105u | -164 |
Astros vs Tigers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Hunter Brown (HOU) | Stat | LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-5 | W-L | 11-3 |
| 4.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 5.5 |
| 2.45/3.05 | ERA /xERA | 2.42/2.68 |
| 2.92/3.07 | FIP / xFIP | 2.26/2.51 |
| 1.00 | WHIP | 0.87 |
| 21.7% | K-BB% | 28.7% |
| 46.1% | GB% | 40.8% |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 116 |
| 96 | Location+ | 105 |
Nick Martin’s Astros vs Tigers Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Facing a Tough Lefty Matchup
If there is ever a good time to face off against Skubal, it could be right now, as the dominant lefty has allowed more than two earned runs in three straight starts for the first time over the last two seasons entering this matchup. While Skubal has not been at his best recently, the Astros have had shaky splits versus lefties recently and may struggle to generate quality contact in this matchup.
Since the All-Star break, Houston owns a wRC+ of 98 versus left-handed pitching and has struck out 23.7% of the time. It also ranks 26th in hard-hit rate versus lefties in that span and has batted just .251 despite holding the sixth-highest BABIP in MLB. Yordan Alvarez is expected to return sometime in the next week and could provide a much-needed boost given his 1.028 OPS versus lefties in 2024, but will remain sidelined for Tuesday's matchup.
While Houston's offense faces a tough get-right spot versus Skubal, the Astros are certainly capable of winning a low-scoring affair with Brown on the mound. Brown ranks third among qualified AL pitchers with an ERA of 2.46 and will have the potential to move atop the leaderboard with a strong outing.
Brown finished the 2024 season in elite form, pitching to an ERA of 2.27 in 71 and 2/3 innings following the All-Star break, and has remained comparably dominant throughout the 2025 season. He holds a 3.07 xFIP and a 21.7% strikeout minus walk rate and has been hard-hit only 32.1% of the time.
Brown has pitched to an ERA of 2.57 across his last five starts and allowed a WHIP of 1.18. He has faced a tough schedule of opponents in that span, as all five matchups have come against teams ranking inside the top ten in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching since July 1st.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Skubal Looks to Keep AL Cy Young Hopes Alive
While Skubal enters this matchup in the midst of a rare rough patch, there does not appear to be any real cause for concern following his last three outings. His average fastball velocity has still sat at 97.3, right at his regular average this season, and he holds a Stuff+ rating of 114 in those three matchups.
Over the last month of play, the Tigers rank 21st in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching and rank 28th in on-base percentage. They have struck out at the second-highest rate in baseball during that span and rank 20th in hard-hit rate.
Astros vs Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis
While a flat seven is a notably low total, as you would expect in a game featuring two of the three favorites to win the AL Cy Young, there still appears to be room to bet the under in this matchup at Comerica Park, which has played at league average in terms of run creation this season.
Skubal has shown no real cause for concern of late and could be poised to bounce back with a dominant outing versus an Astros side in poor form versus lefties.
Brown has allowed two earned runs or less in four straight starts and will be highly motivated to keep that streak alive, pitching in his hometown versus Skubal. Though it seems odd to imagine a matchup versus a Tigers side sporting a 74-53 record as overly good, Detroit has been striking out a ton while not managing much hard contact versus righties recently.
It seems fair to expect this matchup to live up to the hype as a pitcher's duel, and at -105 I see value betting the game to feature under 7 runs.
Pick: Under 7 (-105, play to -110)
Moneyline
In what will likely be a low-event game where runs are at a premium, my lean would be with backing the Astros at a long price of +134 with Brown on the mound.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Astros at -164 to cover the run-line would be my preferred option if I were forced to bet on the run-line.
Over/Under
As outlined, backing this game to have less than seven runs is my favorite play.
Astros vs Tigers Betting Trends
