For Tuesday, August 19, I'm on four MLB home run props: Pete Alonso, Junior Caminero, Nick Kurtz and Corey Seager.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Tuesday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Tuesday, August 19
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:45 p.m. | |
| 7:35 p.m. | |
| 6:45 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for August 19
Pete Alonso (+315)
at Nationals (SP: RHP Jake Irvin)
Alonso is in a plus spot, and these odds are a bit too high. Opposing pitcher Jake Irvin has been worse against lefties compared to righties this season, but he's still allowed a high 1.39 HR/9 to righties.
Alonso has been in good form this month, with 6 bombs, and I have the true odds here around +275, making this a good bet.
Junior Caminero (+330)
vs Yankees (SP: RHP Carlos Rodon)
Caminero is in a good spot, and these odds are a bit too high.
Opposing pitcher Carlos Rodon has been much better this season than the rest of his tenure with the Yankees, but he's still been a plus matchup for righty power, giving up a 1.22 HR/9.
The weather should be good for hitting, with temps in the mid-80s, and Caminero has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball this month, with eight bombs in 15 games. I have the true odds here under +300, making this a great bet..
Corey Seager (+410)
at Royals (SP: RHP Seth Lugo)
I don't love the ballpark for Seager today, but the matchup is far too good to pass up.
Lugo has been absolutely crushed by lefty power this season, allowing a massive 2.09 HR/9 with a massive 40.6% hard contact rate.
The weather is good for hitting today with temps around 90 and high humidity. I have the true odds on Seager today around +325, making this a great EV bet.
Nick Kurtz (+245)
at Twins (SP: RHP Joe Ryan)
Going hard on the A's, as they're in a good spot and priced far too high.
Opposing pitcher Joe Ryan has been hit hard by lefty power this season, giving up a high 1.31 HR/9, and with a 52% fly-ball rate and 32% hard-contact rate, he's due for some negative regression.
The weather should be good for hitting, with a high dew point and temperatures in the 80s during game time.
Kurtz has been one of the best hitters in the league this season, and I have the true odds here around +230, making this a great bet..
