MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Twins-Mariners, 2 Other Thursday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Twins-Mariners, 2 Other Thursday Games article feature image
Credit:

Seattle Mariners center fielder Mitch Haniger and teammates. Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are getting down on three MLB games on Thursday, headlined by Twins-Mariners (10:10 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also betting Orioles-Yankees (6:10 p,m. ET) and Cubs-Reds (6:40 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys suffered their first losing day of the week yesterday, going 1-2 with their Wednesday plays. Giving a unit back to the books is never fun, but the key is limiting losing days to a 1-2 record, not 0-3.

Nothing changes for the sharps today. It’s business as usual: search for value, locate an edge and get down hard. Flat betting. Grinders with Blinders.

After analyzing Thursday’s short 10-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on three MLB games.


>> All odds as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians

6:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 8.5 to 9)

Sharps and squares (casual bettors who bet for fun) are largely on the same page when it comes to this over/under, but likely for different reasons.

The total opened at 8.5. Average Joes see Dan Straily and his 8.24 ERA and that’s all they need to know. Hammer the over to infinity.

But wiseguys love this game more because of the weather. The wind is howling out to right-center at 11-13 mph. According to our Bet Labs software, the over has cashed 58.7% of the time with a 13.6% ROI when the wind blows out at least 10 mph and the total rises at least one-half run.

Currently 62% of bets are taking the over but it also accounts for a whopping 85% of dollars, indicating moderate public support but heavy smart money. This influx of big money caused the total to rise from 8.5 to 9.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we also tracked three steam moves on the over, with two coming on the Over 8.5 and one more on the Over 9.

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

6:40 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Reds (moved from -110 to -140) and Over (8.5)

There are only a handful of games tonight, but this one is by far the favorite of the sharps. They love it so much that they’re hammering both the moneyline and the over/under.

Let’s start with the moneyline.

This game opened with Cincinnati listed at -110. The public takes one look at the won-loss records (Cubs 25-15 vs Reds 19-24) and says grab the Cubbies all day. However, despite Chicago receiving 60% of bets, the line has absolutely skyrocketed away from the Cubs (+102 to +125) and toward the Red Legs (-110 to -140).

What caused this massive line movement? Sharp action, of course.

The Reds are receiving only 40% of bets but 61% of dollars, a clear indication that big bets are in their favor. We’ve also triggered two steam moves on CIN at -124 and -127. This overload of smart money created big liability for the books and forced them to move the line bigly to the Red Legs so they could entice betting on the Cubs to limit risk.

Wiseguys are also targeting the over/under. It opened at 8.5. With Jose Quintana (3.88 ERA) facing ace Luis Castillo (1.76 ERA), the public expects a low-scoring game and is hammering the under to the tune of 75% of bets.

However, sharps are eyeing a contrarian over. They’ve hit the over five separate times, triggering a plethora of steam and reverse line moves. We haven’t seen a single conflicting under move (or buyback).

And the juice on the Over 8.5 is up to -120, which means it may even rise to 9 despite the massively lopsided under betting.

Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners

10:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Mariners (sharp line freeze at -103)

The Twins have been massive money-makers for bettors this season. They boast the second-best record in the American League (27-15). A $100 bettor backing the Twinkies every game would be up $837 thus far.

So of course the public is backing Minnesota at a virtual pick’em price.

Not the Goodfellas. They’re buying low on the Mariners to steal a series-opening win at home.

This game opened with Minnesota listed as a short -110 road favorite. Currently 64% of bets are taking the Twins, yet the line has remained frozen or even dipped slightly away from Minnesota (-110 to -107).

Normally a team receiving this type of public support would see the line move further in its favor (think -110 to -120). The fact that it stayed the same or moved slightly toward the M’s (-102 to -101) is a dead giveaway that the books are worried about handing out a better line to sharps on Seattle.

The Mariners are getting only 36% of bets but 48% of dollars, a positive smart money discrepancy. We’ve also noticed two steam and reverse line moves on Seattle at +100 and -105, without a single conflicting move on Minnesota.