MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: White Sox vs. Indians Preview (June 2)
Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: Lance Lynn
- The White Sox are favored over the Indians on Wednesday afternoon, with the total at 8.5.
- Lance Lynn has been stellar to start the season, but will enter this outing on three days rest.
- Get our Indians vs. White Sox pick and updated odds below.
Editor’s Note: Wednesday’s game between the White Sox and Indians has been postponed because of rain. It will be made up as part of a doubleheader on Sept. 23.
White Sox vs. Indians Odds
|White Sox Odds||-166|
|Time||1:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Wednesday morning and via FanDuel.|
After a doubleheader on Monday, the Cleveland Indians took the third game of this series at home on Tuesday night by the score of 6-5.
The Indians were paced offensively by Austin Hedges, Jose Ramirez and Harold Ramirez, all of whom drove in runs in the victory. Both Ramirez’s contributed multi-hit games, while Hedges supplied a two-two home run in the fourth inning off starter Dylan Cease.
The White Sox, meanwhile, had 10 hits on the day, including RBI knocks by Billy Hamilton, Zach Collins and Nick Madrigal.
In the first three games of this series, we’ve seen these two teams combine for an impressive 29 runs. Should we expect more fireworks on Wednesday afternoon, or can we count on the bats to finally slow down a bit in this division battle?
Can Lynn Continue Stellar Season for White Sox on Short Rest?
Lance Lynn will take the hill for the White Sox on Wednesday on just three days rest for the series finale against the Indians. Lynn has been spectacular for the White Sox so far in 2021. In 52 2/3 innings, he’s pitched to a 2.85 FIP and struck out batters at an impressive 9.75 K/9 clip. His numbers in May were especially remarkable — in six starts last month, Lynn compiled a 5-0 record, 1.64 ERA and struck out 30 batters in 33 innings.
That said, he has been a bit lucky to keep those numbers so low. His 3.76 FIP, while still solid, was more than two runs higher than his ERA, indicating that we should expect to see some negative regression heading his way. On just three days rest, that could come in a hurry.
The matchup, however, is a good one. He’ll take on an Indians team that has struggled against right-handed pitching, collectively hitting to just a .292 wOBA against them so far (seventh-worst in all of baseball).
If Lynn struggles, the White Sox can turn to one of the best bullpens in the league. Over 162 2/3 innings, Chicago’s relievers have pitched to a 3.37 FIP, the third best mark in baseball thus far.
Indians’ Meija Unproven at Major League Level
Jean Carlos Meija will make his first start of the season for the Indians this afternoon after pitching just five innings thus far for the team out of the bullpen. He’s been effective in those innings, however, pitching to an impressive 0.96 FIP and striking out batters at a 12.6 K/9 clip.
There may be a bit of noise in that sample size, however. While his 2.00 ERA from AAA this season looks good on paper, his 5.79 FIP indicates that number should be a whole lot higher. He also only logged nine total innings in AAA before his call up this season and hadn’t pitched above A+ ball prior to that.
Given the fact that Meija isn’t fully stretched out (he hasn’t pitched more than 2 1/3 innings in an outing yet for the big-league squad), it’s likely this will become a bullpen game sooner rather than later. That said, 2+ innings is plenty of time for this White Sox offense to make some noise. They’ve been very good against right-handed pitching so far this season, combining for a .323 wOBA thus far, the eighth-best mark in all of baseball.
Regardless of when he has to look to the bullpen, manager Terry Francona will be comfortable going to a unit that has been one of the better groups in baseball so far this season. Over 183 innings pitched, they’ve compiled a 3.68 FIP, the 10th-best mark amongst all teams.
White Sox-Indians Pick
There’s no denying that Lance Lynn has had a strong start to the 2021 season. In fact, his May numbers have put him adjacent to the Cy Young award conversation at this point in the year.
Despite the early success, the ERA-to-FIP variance signals that he’s due for some negative regression sometime in the near future. This afternoon, he’ll be pitching on three days rest against an Indians team that has improved significantly at the plate over the past week.
On the other side, the Indians will be starting a rookie that has less than 15 total innings pitched above the high-A minor league level. He’ll also get the unfortunate task of taking on a White Sox team that has excelled against right-handed pitching this season.
Given the above, I expect plenty of run scoring opportunities in the early innings. Both bullpens are capable of shutting the door as the game progresses, so I’m looking to take the over on the first five innings at anything -125 or less.
Pick: First 5 innings over 5 runs (-125 or better)