The Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins on on April 29, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on CLEG.
Find my MLB betting preview and Twins vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Twins vs Guardians Prediction
- Twins vs Guardians picks: Twins Team Total Under 3.5
My Twins vs Guardians best bet is on the Twins team total under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Guardians Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8.5 -102 / -118 | +110 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8.5 -102 / -118 | -135 |
Twins vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| Chris Paddack (MIN) | Stat | Tanner Bibee (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | W-L | 2-2 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.6 |
| 6.45 / 4.24 | ERA /xERA | 5.19 / 4.74 |
| 5.93 / 4.90 | FIP / xFIP | 7.26 / 5.03 |
| 1.61 | WHIP | 1.46 |
| 6.7 | K-BB% | 5.4 |
| 41.2 | GB% | 47.4 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 113 | Location+ | 93 |
Feltman’s Twins vs Guardians Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: Why to Avoid This Team
I was skeptical about the Twins' offense on Monday against Gavin Williams, but they took care of business right out of the gate. Bailey Ober's good fortune was bound to implode, but his excellent numbers against these Cleveland hitters again came to fruition.
The offense did most of the damage last night, but thanks to Ober's performance, the unit didn't need much. The Twins had 17 hits and 11 runs last night, but on Tuesday, they face a tough matchup against Tanner Bibee.
Bibee hasn't been as sharp as last season, but the Twins are batting .179 against him over 67 plate appearances.
I'm also not fond of Chris Paddack, who gets the nod on Tuesday. Paddack enters tonight with an ERA over 6.00 and a 1.61 WHIP. His metrics suggest his numbers shouldn't be as rough, but his strikeout numbers continue declining as the year progresses.
Paddack has only faced these Guardians' hitters 13 times, and Gabriel Arias is the only player with a hit off him. I'm not putting too much stock into the small sample size of these numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him cruise through the batting order the first time around.
Paddack keeps the ball on the ground a decent amount, but he doesn't miss many bats. He needs to limit the hard contact if he wants to be successful on Tuesday.
It's not the best matchup for the Twins' offense, and there's a lot of uncertainty about what version of Chris Paddack we will see on Tuesday, so it's best to avoid the Twins from a betting perspective.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Offense Needs to Be Better
The Guardians were in too deep of a hole early on Monday to envision any comeback, and they ended up scoring only one run. Despite the struggles offensively, they only struck out twice against Ober.
That tells me they were putting a lot of balls in play and suggests that their offense should've scored more runs. Regardless, Williams was clobbered and didn't give his team any chance to get back into the game.
I was surprised to see Williams' poor performance, but on Tuesday, I'm more sure Bibee will deliver a much-needed strong outing.
Bibee's low strikeout numbers are a bit concerning, but I'll chalk that up to a slow start. He was much sharper in his last outing against the Yankees, so I hope he's turned a corner.
He has excellent numbers against the Twins in the past, which makes me even more confident that he will deliver on Tuesday.
The Guardians' offense needs to be better, but considering they do a solid job putting the ball in play, I like their chances for a bounce back against Paddack.
Twins vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
I like the Guardians to bounce back on Tuesday night, but I'm not crazy about laying a juiced moneyline.
Instead, I'll fade the Twins' offense here and take their team total under.
I realize Bibee hasn't been as sharp as last season, but I liked what I saw in his previous start against the Yankees. His strikeout stuff was back alive, and he's carved up this Minnesota lineup.
This is also a pure fade of the Twins after winning four straight games. They're coming off of an 11-run performance on Monday night, and I can't envision them scoring a bunch of runs once again on Tuesday night.
Pick: Twins Team Total Under 3.5
Moneyline
I don't want to lay a juiced moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I don't have a play on the run line.
Over/Under
I'm taking the Twins to go under their team total.
