Timberwolves vs. Lakers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 23, 2024

J. Randle ⬆️ 29.5 PRA (-125 @DK)(+100 w/ 25% boost) Randle's first game as a Wolve tonight! He surely wouldn't hog the ball on a brand new team, would he? 😂 All jokes aside, I'm expecting a big opening performance from Randy tonight. I think Randle brings some much needed offensive aggression to this MIN team. Firstly, someone has to fill the void of KAT, who was the 2nd leading scorer behind Edwards last season. He can score from all over the court and averaged 24 points per game, 9.2 rebounds and 5 assists. He shot over 30% from 3-point range and should shoot around 75-80% from the FT line. People will immediately shy away form thinking of him as a rebounder with Gobert there, but he's aggressive on the boards and that's going to matter. TBH Gobert can be a lazy rebounder at times so don't be surprised to see Randle snatch some away. For as much as I like to slam him for taking a bunch of shots he shouldn't, he's still a solid distributor. After the trade to MIN, he said that "he was more of a passer than a scorer," which is slightly comical, but seeing an uptick is distribution is not out of the question. Ultimately, I think Randle shows up tonight and gives MIN an aggressiveness outside of Edwards. LAL presents as a good matchup. They allowed the 3rd most points to opposing forwards last season, 2nd highest 3-pointers made per game, 2nd highest assists and 4th highest rebounds. Gobert will be busy battling with AD and there's no reason Randle shouldn't be very involved.

Rolling with DDV tonight on his new team as the T-Wolves 6th man. HC Chris Finch said that DDV has "been outstanding with the ball in his hands as a playmaker." and because of him, they are "very comfortable with what [they] will do going forward at the point guard spot." In preseason we saw him rack up 5,7,4 assists and we all know that he is a great 3 point shooter, so I am liking his PRA line tonight. The matchup also fits him as the Lakers allowed the 5th most asts per game last year and now he will play with Naz Reid on the 2nd unit. I would expect him to mix in with the starters as well since he will be in rotation for Edwards and Conley, so I would expect him to play around 25-30 mins. In games where he played at least 25 mins last season, DDV hit this line in 85% of games and 2/L3 vs LAL.

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Obligatory LeBron opening night fade, can’t go 82-0 unless you win the first one

Opening night kicks off with the Timberwolves coming into LA to take on the Lakers. All offseason long we heard new Lakers head coach JJ Redick talk about how he wants AD to be a pivotal piece in this offense and on opening night he gets one of his favorite matchups. It's not clear if we will see AD at the 4 or the 5, although Redick has mentioned he prefers him at PF. Either way, in his career, he has been dominant against Gobert and Randle. AD has hit this line in 3/3 games vs MIN last season (had 1 game with 4 pts, but he played just 12 mins due to injury). AD has hit this line in 5/L6 and 4 straight vs Gobert, with 31+ pts in all 5. Against Randle, he has hit this line in 3/L4 with a career average of 28.3 pts. Davis hit this line in 57% of games last season at home, but that was in a Ham offense that made him into an inside only big. This year, Redick has expressed how skilled AD is and how he wants to utilize him in more ways than just in the post. AD mentioned that Redick had texted him during the Olympics' this year expressing his love for AD shooting more 3's. “He’s been on me all summer about shooting 3s,” Davis said. “Even [in] the Olympics when I [made] a 3, he’ll text me ‘That’s what I wanna see,’ things like that. So for him, it’s definitely gonna be just shooting more 3s.” We saw this in the preseason with AD attempting 13 3's and shooting 5-13 (38%) with a game high of 9 attempts vs the Suns. AD appeared in 3 preseason games scoring 17 pts in 18 mins, 24 pts in 26 mins and 35 pts in 34 mins. Redick wants the offense to flow through AD and I think we see that on opening night. AD averaged 32.5 minutes last season and in games where he has at least 32 mins, he has hit this line in 71% of home games and 5/6 vs Minnesota with an average of 31.8 PPG.

Let’s get some early szn magic

@HPBasketball

Adding another .5u

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Reaves was under this line in 38/55 last season with LBJ, AD and DLo playing. Brutal spot vs the TWolves who have a bunch of plus wing defenders (McDaniels, Ant, Conley, DDV, NAW). AD has thrived in this matchup since Gobert came to Minnesota (30+ in 4 full games), and LBJ always comes out of the gates hot. Plus, Knecht looms off the bench - not saying he eats into Reaves’ minutes, but AR could wind up facilitating more.

7.91% ev

Bob

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⭐️ NBA Play of the Day Naz Reid has played extremely well vs this Lakers team. In his last 5 games against them: •6 for 8 (35 Minutes) •5 for 10 (42 Minutes) •2 for 5 (27 Minutes) •3 for 6 (21 Minutes) •3 for 6 (21 Minutes) -The Lakers bench is pretty thin and not great defensively right now with Jaxson Hayes as the only true big likely to get minutes. -The Lakers allowed the 5th Most 3s to PFs & Most 3s to Centers last season and their lineup is the same. -The Lakers also allowed the 2nd Most 3s above the break last season which is where most of Naz Reid’s 3s were taken last season

Opening Night NBA Prop Sneaky spot here with Divincenzo now coming off the bench for MIN. He’s been being used as the PG when Mike Conley is off the court. Chris Finch recently said a lot of questions about the PG position were answered by Donte’s play in the preseason: “he’s been outstanding with the ball in his hands and as a playmaker…” Divincenzo last 3 preseason games: • 27 min, 5 ast • 26 min, 7 ast • 23 min, 4 ast Should be a good fast paced matchup against the Lakers (#4 in pace last season). They were a good team to target for assists last season, 5th most assists allowed and a bottom 10 C&S defense. Obviously this is a new season so take these stats with a grain of salt, but worth noting.

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Fliff