Brandon Anderson

I've been riding the Seahawks train week after week, and I really wanted to bet Seattle -6.5 here. This team sits atop my current power ratings, and I make this game north of -10. Five of six Seattle wins this season are by at least seven points, covering this number — but the one miss was a field goal win against these Cardinals, a game which Seattle dominated through three quarters before a goofy finish. That's been Arizona's modus operandi this season. The Cards haven't lost by more than four all season, making them a perfect 8-0 against this spread. There are too many trends and people I trust eyeing Arizona to need Seattle as a big favorite this week. The other thing holding me back is that I'm starting to believe in this Hunter Rallis defense. Arizona is now top 10 in DVOA overall and against the pass, and the Cardinals rank 6th in EPA per play against the run. Seattle wants to run; the Seahawks rank 4th in run-heaviest teams. But Arizona wants opponents to run too, and Seattle isn't actually good at rushing. That's arguably the worst thing Seattle does, ranking 24th by DVOA. They just want you to match their heavy personnel so Klint Kubiak can dial up the playaction and let Sam Darnold attack deep. Rallis is stubborn though, and he might just invite the run all game — and Seattle tends to accept that invitation. That's why I like Kenneth Walker over 12.5 rushing attempts (-120, DraftKings). Arizona has allowed six straight RB1s to top that number, and that includes 19 carries by Walker in the previous meeting. Heck, Zach Charbonnet had 12 himself in that one, almost going over too! Charbonnet is consistently around 10-to-12 carries, but any fantasy football manager knows Walker's workload has been wildly inconsistent. He has 10 or 11 carries in four games but 16-to-19 in three others. Against the Cardinals in his career, Walker has 21, 26, 26, 17, 16 and 19 rushing attempts. That's an average of 20.8 carries a game, and Arizona has allowed 15, 17, 19, and 21 rushing attempts to the opposing RB1 in four of the last six games. I'm not playing the yardage — I don't actually trust Walker to produce. But playing the rushing attempts gives us multiple scripts to win. Maybe Seattle wins as expected, with Walker logging big carries to run out the clock. Or maybe Seattle's offense stalls because the Seahawks keep feeding Walker and can't move the ball. Either way we win. Can I interest you in a Kenneth Walker rushing attempts escalator? Play 18+ carries at +379, along with 20+ at +650 (DraftKings). Those are right in line with Walker's usual workload against Arizona. We're obliged to touch 24+ carries too at +1740 at the top of the escalator (DraftKings). Walker did that once each of the last two seasons and five times in his young career — including twice against Arizona!

I've been riding the Seahawks train week after week, and I really wanted to bet Seattle -6.5 here. This team sits atop my current power ratings, and I make this game north of -10. Five of six Seattle wins this season are by at least seven points, covering this number — but the one miss was a field goal win against these Cardinals, a game which Seattle dominated through three quarters before a goofy finish. That's been Arizona's modus operandi this season. The Cards haven't lost by more than four all season, making them a perfect 8-0 against this spread. There are too many trends and people I trust eyeing Arizona to need Seattle as a big favorite this week. The other thing holding me back is that I'm starting to believe in this Hunter Rallis defense. Arizona is now top 10 in DVOA overall and against the pass, and the Cardinals rank 6th in EPA per play against the run. Seattle wants to run; the Seahawks rank 4th in run-heaviest teams. But Arizona wants opponents to run too, and Seattle isn't actually good at rushing. That's arguably the worst thing Seattle does, ranking 24th by DVOA. They just want you to match their heavy personnel so Klint Kubiak can dial up the playaction and let Sam Darnold attack deep. Rallis is stubborn though, and he might just invite the run all game — and Seattle tends to accept that invitation. That's why I like Kenneth Walker over 12.5 rushing attempts (-120, DraftKings). Arizona has allowed six straight RB1s to top that number, and that includes 19 carries by Walker in the previous meeting. Heck, Zach Charbonnet had 12 himself in that one, almost going over too! Charbonnet is consistently around 10-to-12 carries, but any fantasy football manager knows Walker's workload has been wildly inconsistent. He has 10 or 11 carries in four games but 16-to-19 in three others. Against the Cardinals in his career, Walker has 21, 26, 26, 17, 16 and 19 rushing attempts. That's an average of 20.8 carries a game, and Arizona has allowed 15, 17, 19, and 21 rushing attempts to the opposing RB1 in four of the last six games. I'm not playing the yardage — I don't actually trust Walker to produce. But playing the rushing attempts gives us multiple scripts to win. Maybe Seattle wins as expected, with Walker logging big carries to run out the clock. Or maybe Seattle's offense stalls because the Seahawks keep feeding Walker and can't move the ball. Either way we win. Can I interest you in a Kenneth Walker rushing attempts escalator? Play 18+ carries at +379, along with 20+ at +650 (DraftKings). Those are right in line with Walker's usual workload against Arizona. We're obliged to touch 24+ carries too at +1740 at the top of the escalator (DraftKings). Walker did that once each of the last two seasons and five times in his young career — including twice against Arizona!

I've been riding the Seahawks train week after week, and I really wanted to bet Seattle -6.5 here. This team sits atop my current power ratings, and I make this game north of -10. Five of six Seattle wins this season are by at least seven points, covering this number — but the one miss was a field goal win against these Cardinals, a game which Seattle dominated through three quarters before a goofy finish. That's been Arizona's modus operandi this season. The Cards haven't lost by more than four all season, making them a perfect 8-0 against this spread. There are too many trends and people I trust eyeing Arizona to need Seattle as a big favorite this week. The other thing holding me back is that I'm starting to believe in this Hunter Rallis defense. Arizona is now top 10 in DVOA overall and against the pass, and the Cardinals rank 6th in EPA per play against the run. Seattle wants to run; the Seahawks rank 4th in run-heaviest teams. But Arizona wants opponents to run too, and Seattle isn't actually good at rushing. That's arguably the worst thing Seattle does, ranking 24th by DVOA. They just want you to match their heavy personnel so Klint Kubiak can dial up the playaction and let Sam Darnold attack deep. Rallis is stubborn though, and he might just invite the run all game — and Seattle tends to accept that invitation. That's why I like Kenneth Walker over 12.5 rushing attempts (-120, DraftKings). Arizona has allowed six straight RB1s to top that number, and that includes 19 carries by Walker in the previous meeting. Heck, Zach Charbonnet had 12 himself in that one, almost going over too! Charbonnet is consistently around 10-to-12 carries, but any fantasy football manager knows Walker's workload has been wildly inconsistent. He has 10 or 11 carries in four games but 16-to-19 in three others. Against the Cardinals in his career, Walker has 21, 26, 26, 17, 16 and 19 rushing attempts. That's an average of 20.8 carries a game, and Arizona has allowed 15, 17, 19, and 21 rushing attempts to the opposing RB1 in four of the last six games. I'm not playing the yardage — I don't actually trust Walker to produce. But playing the rushing attempts gives us multiple scripts to win. Maybe Seattle wins as expected, with Walker logging big carries to run out the clock. Or maybe Seattle's offense stalls because the Seahawks keep feeding Walker and can't move the ball. Either way we win. Can I interest you in a Kenneth Walker rushing attempts escalator? Play 18+ carries at +379, along with 20+ at +650 (DraftKings). Those are right in line with Walker's usual workload against Arizona. We're obliged to touch 24+ carries too at +1740 at the top of the escalator (DraftKings). Walker did that once each of the last two seasons and five times in his young career — including twice against Arizona!

I've been riding the Seahawks train week after week, and I really wanted to bet Seattle -6.5 here. This team sits atop my current power ratings, and I make this game north of -10. Five of six Seattle wins this season are by at least seven points, covering this number — but the one miss was a field goal win against these Cardinals, a game which Seattle dominated through three quarters before a goofy finish. That's been Arizona's modus operandi this season. The Cards haven't lost by more than four all season, making them a perfect 8-0 against this spread. There are too many trends and people I trust eyeing Arizona to need Seattle as a big favorite this week. The other thing holding me back is that I'm starting to believe in this Hunter Rallis defense. Arizona is now top 10 in DVOA overall and against the pass, and the Cardinals rank 6th in EPA per play against the run. Seattle wants to run; the Seahawks rank 4th in run-heaviest teams. But Arizona wants opponents to run too, and Seattle isn't actually good at rushing. That's arguably the worst thing Seattle does, ranking 24th by DVOA. They just want you to match their heavy personnel so Klint Kubiak can dial up the playaction and let Sam Darnold attack deep. Rallis is stubborn though, and he might just invite the run all game — and Seattle tends to accept that invitation. That's why I like Kenneth Walker over 12.5 rushing attempts (-120, DraftKings). Arizona has allowed six straight RB1s to top that number, and that includes 19 carries by Walker in the previous meeting. Heck, Zach Charbonnet had 12 himself in that one, almost going over too! Charbonnet is consistently around 10-to-12 carries, but any fantasy football manager knows Walker's workload has been wildly inconsistent. He has 10 or 11 carries in four games but 16-to-19 in three others. Against the Cardinals in his career, Walker has 21, 26, 26, 17, 16 and 19 rushing attempts. That's an average of 20.8 carries a game, and Arizona has allowed 15, 17, 19, and 21 rushing attempts to the opposing RB1 in four of the last six games. I'm not playing the yardage — I don't actually trust Walker to produce. But playing the rushing attempts gives us multiple scripts to win. Maybe Seattle wins as expected, with Walker logging big carries to run out the clock. Or maybe Seattle's offense stalls because the Seahawks keep feeding Walker and can't move the ball. Either way we win. Can I interest you in a Kenneth Walker rushing attempts escalator? Play 18+ carries at +379, along with 20+ at +650 (DraftKings). Those are right in line with Walker's usual workload against Arizona. We're obliged to touch 24+ carries too at +1740 at the top of the escalator (DraftKings). Walker did that once each of the last two seasons and five times in his young career — including twice against Arizona!

WEEK 10 LOOKAHEAD If this pick looks familiar, it should — it's almost identical to the angle we played on last week's Lookahead. That was Seahawks -2.5 at Washington, and sure enough, that line flipped all the way past the key number to -3.5, giving us some juicy Sunday night CLV. But if Seattle is -3.5 at Washington, how in the world are the Lions -3? I've been as high as anyone on Seattle, but pricing them ahead of Detroit is pretty aggressive. I'm happy to keep fading Washington. WR Terry McLaurin is hurt again and probably won't play in this one, and stud LT Laremy Tunsil is dealing with a hamstring injury. It looks like QB Jayden Daniels will play this week, but who knows how healthy Daniels will be? We've already seen him re-injured once this season, trying to return. If Daniels looks subpar, or if Washington loses Sunday night in front of a national audience, this team will appear to be in free fall on a four-game losing streak, and there's no way this line stays at -3. Besides, this is a game HC Dan Campbell and the Lions have been waiting for all year. Do you remember the last time these two teams played? Campbell does. It was 45-31 Washington in the playoffs, and it was a humiliating early playoff exit for the NFC 1-seed. Campbell is old school, and he loves his revenge spots. Remember when the Lions lost 20-19 to the Cowboys in December 2023 when OL Dan Skipper caught a two-point conversion that was erroneously ruled out? Campbell and the Lions remember. They played Dallas the following season and pummeled the Cowboys, 47-9, in Dallas. I promise you, Campbell and the Lions have been waiting on this one. Play Lions -3 (DraftKings) while it's still there.

🔥 Week 10 Hot Read 🔥

We took Rams -3 on the Hot Read as our first pick Sunday night. We've got some good value there now that the line is up to -4.5 and rising. There's not much value left on a Rams spread now, but we can still invest in this elite offense against what might be the worst defense in the league. San Francisco has been demolished by injuries. The 49ers rank 31st in EPA per play against the middle of the field too, so Puka Nacua should eat, and Matthew Stafford had his biggest game of the season in the first meeting. Usually with Nacua, I just want receptions, but books are steering us away by pricing 8+ receptions at -130 juiced. But when Nacua does catch at least eight passes, as he's done 15 times in his career, he also racks up yardage — at least 85 yards in all but one game, with 100+ yards in 11 of 15 (73%). The 49ers allow the seventh-most yards to opposing WRs. Nacua had 10 catches for 85 yards in the first meeting this year, and the similarly-styled Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 9/124. The 49ers also rank bottom 10 in EPA per play against deep passes while the Rams rank top four passing deep and go there often, leaving the possibility of a big chunk play. Play Nacua 100+ receiving yards at +116 (DraftKings). He averages 126 YPG in his 15 games with 8+ catches, and he topped 150 yards in 40% of them, so play the yardage escalator at 120 yards for +223 and 150+ at +600 (both at DraftKings).

We took Rams -3 on the Hot Read as our first pick Sunday night. We've got some good value there now that the line is up to -4.5 and rising. There's not much value left on a Rams spread now, but we can still invest in this elite offense against what might be the worst defense in the league. San Francisco has been demolished by injuries. The 49ers rank 31st in EPA per play against the middle of the field too, so Puka Nacua should eat, and Matthew Stafford had his biggest game of the season in the first meeting. Usually with Nacua, I just want receptions, but books are steering us away by pricing 8+ receptions at -130 juiced. But when Nacua does catch at least eight passes, as he's done 15 times in his career, he also racks up yardage — at least 85 yards in all but one game, with 100+ yards in 11 of 15 (73%). The 49ers allow the seventh-most yards to opposing WRs. Nacua had 10 catches for 85 yards in the first meeting this year, and the similarly-styled Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 9/124. The 49ers also rank bottom 10 in EPA per play against deep passes while the Rams rank top four passing deep and go there often, leaving the possibility of a big chunk play. Play Nacua 100+ receiving yards at +116 (DraftKings). He averages 126 YPG in his 15 games with 8+ catches, and he topped 150 yards in 40% of them, so play the yardage escalator at 120 yards for +223 and 150+ at +600 (both at DraftKings).

We took Rams -3 on the Hot Read as our first pick Sunday night. We've got some good value there now that the line is up to -4.5 and rising. There's not much value left on a Rams spread now, but we can still invest in this elite offense against what might be the worst defense in the league. San Francisco has been demolished by injuries. The 49ers rank 31st in EPA per play against the middle of the field too, so Puka Nacua should eat, and Matthew Stafford had his biggest game of the season in the first meeting. Usually with Nacua, I just want receptions, but books are steering us away by pricing 8+ receptions at -130 juiced. But when Nacua does catch at least eight passes, as he's done 15 times in his career, he also racks up yardage — at least 85 yards in all but one game, with 100+ yards in 11 of 15 (73%). The 49ers allow the seventh-most yards to opposing WRs. Nacua had 10 catches for 85 yards in the first meeting this year, and the similarly-styled Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 9/124. The 49ers also rank bottom 10 in EPA per play against deep passes while the Rams rank top four passing deep and go there often, leaving the possibility of a big chunk play. Play Nacua 100+ receiving yards at +116 (DraftKings). He averages 126 YPG in his 15 games with 8+ catches, and he topped 150 yards in 40% of them, so play the yardage escalator at 120 yards for +223 and 150+ at +600 (both at DraftKings).

The Colts were the talk of the league this week after trading for Sauce Gardner, so it's only appropriate that we start Sunday morning with the Colts too. Gardner is a huge pickup for this team. Adding him next to nickel back Kenny Moore and, once he's healthy, Charvarius Ward should give Indy one of the league's best trio of corners. It's also just in time for Sauce to cover Drake London as much as possible this week. Don't worry too much about the Colts loss to Pittsburgh last week. Indianapolis turned it over six times but otherwise moved the ball well as usual, and the Colts finished +10% in net Success Rate, typically a good indicator that the team was better. Football is hard, and the ball is oblong. It happens. The Colts defense is probably a bit overrated but still better than this inconsistent Falcons offense, which doesn't seem to have many answers when it can't dictate things. Everyone knows about Atlanta's star weapons on offense, but the line has been a hidden strength in recent years. But now both starting guards are a question for Berlin, and the Falcons are already without last year's C and RT. This line is struggling. By contrast, the Colts have had arguably the best offensive line in the league this season. The line was embarrassed last week by Pittsburgh, but that should mean a focused, spirited effort to rebound against the Falcons. Atlanta's defense feels overrated, and it's certainly not been good against the run, just 24th in DVOA. The Falcons built their defense around small, speedy pass rushers, and that works in some matchups but it's going to be a problem against this Colts rushing attack. The Colts also have a big special teams edge, and this is a significant coaching mismatch. Shane Steichen is the Coach of the Year favorite, pulling all the right levers for Indy, while Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson are increasingly getting a lot of questions. Steichen is 12-7 ATS as a favorite (63%), while Morris is 44% ATS as an underdog. Morris is also 44% ATS against teams over .500, while Daniel Jones is 20-12 ATS (63%) against teams below .500 like Atlanta. When in doubt, just back the favorite in these international games. Removing Jaguars games since they play overseas so often, the favorite in all other international games is 27-13 ATS (68%). When the total is at least 44, that improves to 18-6 ATS (75%), and the underdog hadn't won in the last 20 meetings until the Chargers beat the Chiefs in Brazil in this year's opener. Per Evan Abrams, teams coming off a loss as a favorite before an international game like the Colts are 15-9 ATS (63%); they're 12-5 ATS when both are in that spot. Play Colts -6.5 below the key number of seven, and if you like, this is a nice setup for a Sunday teaser. I like Seattle as a teaser pairing, or the Lions or Bills look like good options. The Colts have scored at least 29 points in all seven wins this season, averaging 35.7 PPG in wins with at least 38 in over half. Place a portion of your bet on Indianapolis team total over 37.5 points at +440 (DraftKings) in case the Colts hang a crooked number on Atlanta in Berlin.

I probably don't need too much convincing to sell you on the Bills being better than the Dolphins. This is the No. 2 DVOA offense against the 29th-ranked defense, and the Bills have owned this division rivalry, winning 14 of the last 15 with an average margin of victory of 15.0 PPG. Tua Tagovailoa is 1-9 against Buffalo with as many interceptions as touchdowns. But despite those lopsided numbers, Josh Allen is just 7-7-1 ATS against Miami in the regular season. That's why we have to bet against the number, not just moneylines! It's also why we're betting Bills 2H at a much more reasonable -3.5 (-110, bet365). You always want Bills 2H, especially in games with bigger spreads — and especially in this matchup. The Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in the second half this season, hanging for awhile but not til the end. The Bills are 6-2 ATS 2H, and that's been a consistent spot to back Josh Allen. Allen is 67% ATS for his career against the second-half spread; $100 bettors blindly backing Allen every second half of his career would be up around $3200, almost four times as profitable as the next best active QB. Any idea which team Allen has been best against the second-half number? You guessed it — Allen is 12-3 ATS (80%) against Miami, nearly as profitable in the second half against just the Dolphins as every other second-half QB is in their entire career. The Bills cover by 6.8 PPG in those Dolphins game, so place a bit of your bet on Bills to win the second half by 10 at +200 (bet365). And for all that Allen talk, if the Bills do have a big second half, it'll almost definitely mean a heavy dose of James Cook. Miami's run defense has been, pardon the pun, absolutely cooked in losses this season. The Dolphins allow an average of 19.0 rushing attempts to opposing RB1s in losses for 109 yards. That includes 119 yards to Derrick Henry, 124 to Kimani Vidal, and 206 to Rico Dowdle, and six of seven RB1s have at least 18 carries in Miami losses. Cook himself ran 19 times for 108 yards and a score in the first meeting. He's had at least 19 carries in five straight Bills wins, and he's gone over 100 rushing yards in each of those five too, averaging 137 YPG. Play Cook to go over 17.5 rushing attempts (-116, DraftKings) and that volume makes 100+ yards a good play at +155, along with 120 at +320 (both bet365). Keep an eye on Cook's injury status as Sunday approaches.

I probably don't need too much convincing to sell you on the Bills being better than the Dolphins. This is the No. 2 DVOA offense against the 29th-ranked defense, and the Bills have owned this division rivalry, winning 14 of the last 15 with an average margin of victory of 15.0 PPG. Tua Tagovailoa is 1-9 against Buffalo with as many interceptions as touchdowns. But despite those lopsided numbers, Josh Allen is just 7-7-1 ATS against Miami in the regular season. That's why we have to bet against the number, not just moneylines! It's also why we're betting Bills 2H at a much more reasonable -3.5 (-110, bet365). You always want Bills 2H, especially in games with bigger spreads — and especially in this matchup. The Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in the second half this season, hanging for awhile but not til the end. The Bills are 6-2 ATS 2H, and that's been a consistent spot to back Josh Allen. Allen is 67% ATS for his career against the second-half spread; $100 bettors blindly backing Allen every second half of his career would be up around $3200, almost four times as profitable as the next best active QB. Any idea which team Allen has been best against the second-half number? You guessed it — Allen is 12-3 ATS (80%) against Miami, nearly as profitable in the second half against just the Dolphins as every other second-half QB is in their entire career. The Bills cover by 6.8 PPG in those Dolphins game, so place a bit of your bet on Bills to win the second half by 10 at +200 (bet365). And for all that Allen talk, if the Bills do have a big second half, it'll almost definitely mean a heavy dose of James Cook. Miami's run defense has been, pardon the pun, absolutely cooked in losses this season. The Dolphins allow an average of 19.0 rushing attempts to opposing RB1s in losses for 109 yards. That includes 119 yards to Derrick Henry, 124 to Kimani Vidal, and 206 to Rico Dowdle, and six of seven RB1s have at least 18 carries in Miami losses. Cook himself ran 19 times for 108 yards and a score in the first meeting. He's had at least 19 carries in five straight Bills wins, and he's gone over 100 rushing yards in each of those five too, averaging 137 YPG. Play Cook to go over 17.5 rushing attempts (-116, DraftKings) and that volume makes 100+ yards a good play at +155, along with 120 at +320 (both bet365). Keep an eye on Cook's injury status as Sunday approaches.

I probably don't need too much convincing to sell you on the Bills being better than the Dolphins. This is the No. 2 DVOA offense against the 29th-ranked defense, and the Bills have owned this division rivalry, winning 14 of the last 15 with an average margin of victory of 15.0 PPG. Tua Tagovailoa is 1-9 against Buffalo with as many interceptions as touchdowns. But despite those lopsided numbers, Josh Allen is just 7-7-1 ATS against Miami in the regular season. That's why we have to bet against the number, not just moneylines! It's also why we're betting Bills 2H at a much more reasonable -3.5 (-110, bet365). You always want Bills 2H, especially in games with bigger spreads — and especially in this matchup. The Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in the second half this season, hanging for awhile but not til the end. The Bills are 6-2 ATS 2H, and that's been a consistent spot to back Josh Allen. Allen is 67% ATS for his career against the second-half spread; $100 bettors blindly backing Allen every second half of his career would be up around $3200, almost four times as profitable as the next best active QB. Any idea which team Allen has been best against the second-half number? You guessed it — Allen is 12-3 ATS (80%) against Miami, nearly as profitable in the second half against just the Dolphins as every other second-half QB is in their entire career. The Bills cover by 6.8 PPG in those Dolphins game, so place a bit of your bet on Bills to win the second half by 10 at +200 (bet365). And for all that Allen talk, if the Bills do have a big second half, it'll almost definitely mean a heavy dose of James Cook. Miami's run defense has been, pardon the pun, absolutely cooked in losses this season. The Dolphins allow an average of 19.0 rushing attempts to opposing RB1s in losses for 109 yards. That includes 119 yards to Derrick Henry, 124 to Kimani Vidal, and 206 to Rico Dowdle, and six of seven RB1s have at least 18 carries in Miami losses. Cook himself ran 19 times for 108 yards and a score in the first meeting. He's had at least 19 carries in five straight Bills wins, and he's gone over 100 rushing yards in each of those five too, averaging 137 YPG. Play Cook to go over 17.5 rushing attempts (-116, DraftKings) and that volume makes 100+ yards a good play at +155, along with 120 at +320 (both bet365). Keep an eye on Cook's injury status as Sunday approaches.

I probably don't need too much convincing to sell you on the Bills being better than the Dolphins. This is the No. 2 DVOA offense against the 29th-ranked defense, and the Bills have owned this division rivalry, winning 14 of the last 15 with an average margin of victory of 15.0 PPG. Tua Tagovailoa is 1-9 against Buffalo with as many interceptions as touchdowns. But despite those lopsided numbers, Josh Allen is just 7-7-1 ATS against Miami in the regular season. That's why we have to bet against the number, not just moneylines! It's also why we're betting Bills 2H at a much more reasonable -3.5 (-110, bet365). You always want Bills 2H, especially in games with bigger spreads — and especially in this matchup. The Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in the second half this season, hanging for awhile but not til the end. The Bills are 6-2 ATS 2H, and that's been a consistent spot to back Josh Allen. Allen is 67% ATS for his career against the second-half spread; $100 bettors blindly backing Allen every second half of his career would be up around $3200, almost four times as profitable as the next best active QB. Any idea which team Allen has been best against the second-half number? You guessed it — Allen is 12-3 ATS (80%) against Miami, nearly as profitable in the second half against just the Dolphins as every other second-half QB is in their entire career. The Bills cover by 6.8 PPG in those Dolphins game, so place a bit of your bet on Bills to win the second half by 10 at +200 (bet365). And for all that Allen talk, if the Bills do have a big second half, it'll almost definitely mean a heavy dose of James Cook. Miami's run defense has been, pardon the pun, absolutely cooked in losses this season. The Dolphins allow an average of 19.0 rushing attempts to opposing RB1s in losses for 109 yards. That includes 119 yards to Derrick Henry, 124 to Kimani Vidal, and 206 to Rico Dowdle, and six of seven RB1s have at least 18 carries in Miami losses. Cook himself ran 19 times for 108 yards and a score in the first meeting. He's had at least 19 carries in five straight Bills wins, and he's gone over 100 rushing yards in each of those five too, averaging 137 YPG. Play Cook to go over 17.5 rushing attempts (-116, DraftKings) and that volume makes 100+ yards a good play at +155, along with 120 at +320 (both bet365). Keep an eye on Cook's injury status as Sunday approaches.

I was all set to back the Bears when I saw this line at Chicago -3 on Sunday morning, but it reopened above the key number and has continued to steadily rise all week. Chicago has a pair of two-point wins and that last-second Bengals win, and the Giants have two losses by three or less, so that makes it tough to pay such a steep price to back the Bears. The Giants have allowed 22 PPG in their last three second halves and are 2-7 ATS in the 2H, and Bears -1.5 2H gets under the key number. But the reason I was looking to back Chicago in the first place was one key matchup, so let's just go straight to the source and play a bunch of rushing overs. Last week, I really wanted D'Andre Swift overs. I even had the whole thing written up and gave out Swift overs on The Action Network podcast, but we had to kill the pick when Swift was a late injury scratch. In his place, rookie replacement Kyle Monangai ran rampant with 176 yards on 26 carries. Somehow, this matchup might be even tastier. The Giants rank dead last in rushing defense both by DVOA and EPA per play. This also looks like a blustery Chicago game, with heavy winds and a chance of freezing rain or snow — more reason to look at the ground game. Since the bye week, Chicago's rushing attack has been absolutely unstoppable. The Bears are up from 3.8 yards per carry in four games before the bye to 5.9 YPC after, leading the league at 187 yards per game. Chicago ranks fourth in rushing Success Rate since the bye and second in EPA per run. It's clear Ben Johnson found some answers in the week away, and this offensive line is playing well. This is also a great matchup under the hood. Chicago prefers to play under center and run outside, each among the Giants' worst defensive metrics. New York allows the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. The Giants have already allowed seven backs to rush for at least 81 yards. If you look at just "Bears RB1" in wins since the bye, you see rushing lines of 14/108, 19/124, and 26/176. The question is which Bears runner is RB1. Is it Swift now that he's back on the field, or has rookie Monangai stolen the job? Even worse, could it be a split? Which one should we play? How about both? I still think Swift gets more of the carries for now. He's more of a workhorse type, the Knuckles to Monangai's Sonic in this pairing. Take Swift over 50.5 rushing yards (-115, Fanatics). He's gone over that in four of seven games, and he's averaging 16.5 carries for 116 yards in Bears wins since the bye week change. That means we're placing a real chunk of the bet on 100+ yards at +900 too, and it makes sense to tack on 100+ Swift yards in a Bears cover at +1200 (both at bet365). With Monangai, I'm less looking to play his standard lines and more looking for alts. Maybe he did take the lead job, in which case we want high outcomes, or maybe he gets clean-up duty or busts a long one against a tired, bad run defense. Play Monangai to hit 50+ rushing yards at +180 (bet365). That can hit even with Swift doing well, and it also offers some insurance in case we're wrong and Swift doesn't get the carries, meaning Monangai probably does. Play 100+ yards at +1500 too, in case the volume is there. It's hard to know which back to trust, but what's interesting is that books don't seem to know either. Some are pricing Swift higher; others are boosting Monangai's lines. That means shopping around buys us value. There's also a good opportunity here to build some fun combination parlays. If you bet both Swift and Monangai yards together, books will likely price in negative correlation, assuming one runner hitting means the other doesn't. I'm not sure that's the case, though, not in this matchup. I like Swift 80+ yards and Monangai 50+ yards as a +1150 SGP together (bet365), and are you ready for a bomb? How about Swift 100+ rushing yards and Monangai 70+ in a Bears win? That's +6500 at bet365, but that just hit in Chicago's last win with both backs on the field against the Saints!

I was all set to back the Bears when I saw this line at Chicago -3 on Sunday morning, but it reopened above the key number and has continued to steadily rise all week. Chicago has a pair of two-point wins and that last-second Bengals win, and the Giants have two losses by three or less, so that makes it tough to pay such a steep price to back the Bears. The Giants have allowed 22 PPG in their last three second halves and are 2-7 ATS in the 2H, and Bears -1.5 2H gets under the key number. But the reason I was looking to back Chicago in the first place was one key matchup, so let's just go straight to the source and play a bunch of rushing overs. Last week, I really wanted D'Andre Swift overs. I even had the whole thing written up and gave out Swift overs on The Action Network podcast, but we had to kill the pick when Swift was a late injury scratch. In his place, rookie replacement Kyle Monangai ran rampant with 176 yards on 26 carries. Somehow, this matchup might be even tastier. The Giants rank dead last in rushing defense both by DVOA and EPA per play. This also looks like a blustery Chicago game, with heavy winds and a chance of freezing rain or snow — more reason to look at the ground game. Since the bye week, Chicago's rushing attack has been absolutely unstoppable. The Bears are up from 3.8 yards per carry in four games before the bye to 5.9 YPC after, leading the league at 187 yards per game. Chicago ranks fourth in rushing Success Rate since the bye and second in EPA per run. It's clear Ben Johnson found some answers in the week away, and this offensive line is playing well. This is also a great matchup under the hood. Chicago prefers to play under center and run outside, each among the Giants' worst defensive metrics. New York allows the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. The Giants have already allowed seven backs to rush for at least 81 yards. If you look at just "Bears RB1" in wins since the bye, you see rushing lines of 14/108, 19/124, and 26/176. The question is which Bears runner is RB1. Is it Swift now that he's back on the field, or has rookie Monangai stolen the job? Even worse, could it be a split? Which one should we play? How about both? I still think Swift gets more of the carries for now. He's more of a workhorse type, the Knuckles to Monangai's Sonic in this pairing. Take Swift over 50.5 rushing yards (-115, Fanatics). He's gone over that in four of seven games, and he's averaging 16.5 carries for 116 yards in Bears wins since the bye week change. That means we're placing a real chunk of the bet on 100+ yards at +900 too, and it makes sense to tack on 100+ Swift yards in a Bears cover at +1200 (both at bet365). With Monangai, I'm less looking to play his standard lines and more looking for alts. Maybe he did take the lead job, in which case we want high outcomes, or maybe he gets clean-up duty or busts a long one against a tired, bad run defense. Play Monangai to hit 50+ rushing yards at +180 (bet365). That can hit even with Swift doing well, and it also offers some insurance in case we're wrong and Swift doesn't get the carries, meaning Monangai probably does. Play 100+ yards at +1500 too, in case the volume is there. It's hard to know which back to trust, but what's interesting is that books don't seem to know either. Some are pricing Swift higher; others are boosting Monangai's lines. That means shopping around buys us value. There's also a good opportunity here to build some fun combination parlays. If you bet both Swift and Monangai yards together, books will likely price in negative correlation, assuming one runner hitting means the other doesn't. I'm not sure that's the case, though, not in this matchup. I like Swift 80+ yards and Monangai 50+ yards as a +1150 SGP together (bet365), and are you ready for a bomb? How about Swift 100+ rushing yards and Monangai 70+ in a Bears win? That's +6500 at bet365, but that just hit in Chicago's last win with both backs on the field against the Saints!

I was all set to back the Bears when I saw this line at Chicago -3 on Sunday morning, but it reopened above the key number and has continued to steadily rise all week. Chicago has a pair of two-point wins and that last-second Bengals win, and the Giants have two losses by three or less, so that makes it tough to pay such a steep price to back the Bears. The Giants have allowed 22 PPG in their last three second halves and are 2-7 ATS in the 2H, and Bears -1.5 2H gets under the key number. But the reason I was looking to back Chicago in the first place was one key matchup, so let's just go straight to the source and play a bunch of rushing overs. Last week, I really wanted D'Andre Swift overs. I even had the whole thing written up and gave out Swift overs on The Action Network podcast, but we had to kill the pick when Swift was a late injury scratch. In his place, rookie replacement Kyle Monangai ran rampant with 176 yards on 26 carries. Somehow, this matchup might be even tastier. The Giants rank dead last in rushing defense both by DVOA and EPA per play. This also looks like a blustery Chicago game, with heavy winds and a chance of freezing rain or snow — more reason to look at the ground game. Since the bye week, Chicago's rushing attack has been absolutely unstoppable. The Bears are up from 3.8 yards per carry in four games before the bye to 5.9 YPC after, leading the league at 187 yards per game. Chicago ranks fourth in rushing Success Rate since the bye and second in EPA per run. It's clear Ben Johnson found some answers in the week away, and this offensive line is playing well. This is also a great matchup under the hood. Chicago prefers to play under center and run outside, each among the Giants' worst defensive metrics. New York allows the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. The Giants have already allowed seven backs to rush for at least 81 yards. If you look at just "Bears RB1" in wins since the bye, you see rushing lines of 14/108, 19/124, and 26/176. The question is which Bears runner is RB1. Is it Swift now that he's back on the field, or has rookie Monangai stolen the job? Even worse, could it be a split? Which one should we play? How about both? I still think Swift gets more of the carries for now. He's more of a workhorse type, the Knuckles to Monangai's Sonic in this pairing. Take Swift over 50.5 rushing yards (-115, Fanatics). He's gone over that in four of seven games, and he's averaging 16.5 carries for 116 yards in Bears wins since the bye week change. That means we're placing a real chunk of the bet on 100+ yards at +900 too, and it makes sense to tack on 100+ Swift yards in a Bears cover at +1200 (both at bet365). With Monangai, I'm less looking to play his standard lines and more looking for alts. Maybe he did take the lead job, in which case we want high outcomes, or maybe he gets clean-up duty or busts a long one against a tired, bad run defense. Play Monangai to hit 50+ rushing yards at +180 (bet365). That can hit even with Swift doing well, and it also offers some insurance in case we're wrong and Swift doesn't get the carries, meaning Monangai probably does. Play 100+ yards at +1500 too, in case the volume is there. It's hard to know which back to trust, but what's interesting is that books don't seem to know either. Some are pricing Swift higher; others are boosting Monangai's lines. That means shopping around buys us value. There's also a good opportunity here to build some fun combination parlays. If you bet both Swift and Monangai yards together, books will likely price in negative correlation, assuming one runner hitting means the other doesn't. I'm not sure that's the case, though, not in this matchup. I like Swift 80+ yards and Monangai 50+ yards as a +1150 SGP together (bet365), and are you ready for a bomb? How about Swift 100+ rushing yards and Monangai 70+ in a Bears win? That's +6500 at bet365, but that just hit in Chicago's last win with both backs on the field against the Saints!

I was all set to back the Bears when I saw this line at Chicago -3 on Sunday morning, but it reopened above the key number and has continued to steadily rise all week. Chicago has a pair of two-point wins and that last-second Bengals win, and the Giants have two losses by three or less, so that makes it tough to pay such a steep price to back the Bears. The Giants have allowed 22 PPG in their last three second halves and are 2-7 ATS in the 2H, and Bears -1.5 2H gets under the key number. But the reason I was looking to back Chicago in the first place was one key matchup, so let's just go straight to the source and play a bunch of rushing overs. Last week, I really wanted D'Andre Swift overs. I even had the whole thing written up and gave out Swift overs on The Action Network podcast, but we had to kill the pick when Swift was a late injury scratch. In his place, rookie replacement Kyle Monangai ran rampant with 176 yards on 26 carries. Somehow, this matchup might be even tastier. The Giants rank dead last in rushing defense both by DVOA and EPA per play. This also looks like a blustery Chicago game, with heavy winds and a chance of freezing rain or snow — more reason to look at the ground game. Since the bye week, Chicago's rushing attack has been absolutely unstoppable. The Bears are up from 3.8 yards per carry in four games before the bye to 5.9 YPC after, leading the league at 187 yards per game. Chicago ranks fourth in rushing Success Rate since the bye and second in EPA per run. It's clear Ben Johnson found some answers in the week away, and this offensive line is playing well. This is also a great matchup under the hood. Chicago prefers to play under center and run outside, each among the Giants' worst defensive metrics. New York allows the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. The Giants have already allowed seven backs to rush for at least 81 yards. If you look at just "Bears RB1" in wins since the bye, you see rushing lines of 14/108, 19/124, and 26/176. The question is which Bears runner is RB1. Is it Swift now that he's back on the field, or has rookie Monangai stolen the job? Even worse, could it be a split? Which one should we play? How about both? I still think Swift gets more of the carries for now. He's more of a workhorse type, the Knuckles to Monangai's Sonic in this pairing. Take Swift over 50.5 rushing yards (-115, Fanatics). He's gone over that in four of seven games, and he's averaging 16.5 carries for 116 yards in Bears wins since the bye week change. That means we're placing a real chunk of the bet on 100+ yards at +900 too, and it makes sense to tack on 100+ Swift yards in a Bears cover at +1200 (both at bet365). With Monangai, I'm less looking to play his standard lines and more looking for alts. Maybe he did take the lead job, in which case we want high outcomes, or maybe he gets clean-up duty or busts a long one against a tired, bad run defense. Play Monangai to hit 50+ rushing yards at +180 (bet365). That can hit even with Swift doing well, and it also offers some insurance in case we're wrong and Swift doesn't get the carries, meaning Monangai probably does. Play 100+ yards at +1500 too, in case the volume is there. It's hard to know which back to trust, but what's interesting is that books don't seem to know either. Some are pricing Swift higher; others are boosting Monangai's lines. That means shopping around buys us value. There's also a good opportunity here to build some fun combination parlays. If you bet both Swift and Monangai yards together, books will likely price in negative correlation, assuming one runner hitting means the other doesn't. I'm not sure that's the case, though, not in this matchup. I like Swift 80+ yards and Monangai 50+ yards as a +1150 SGP together (bet365), and are you ready for a bomb? How about Swift 100+ rushing yards and Monangai 70+ in a Bears win? That's +6500 at bet365, but that just hit in Chicago's last win with both backs on the field against the Saints!

We've been a hot streak with upsets, hitting both the Dolphins and Jets two weeks ago, then Panthers +750 ML last week. This week, we're picking against those Panthers, now hefty favorites this time around. Carolina has not won a game as favorites since September 2021. The Panthers have lost 10 times in a row as favorites, the longest such losing streak since the 1970 merger. Just like last week when we backed Carolina, the matchup here is key — but this time, some of the same things we liked about the Panthers as an underdog now work against them as the favorite. We liked Carolina last week because they can run and stop the run. That matched up well against a run-heavy Packers squad with a beatable run defense. But the one real strength on this Saints team is their run defense. Carolina leads the league in inside runs but comes into the game with a banged-up C-RG-RT combo along with Rico Dowdle, and the Saints rank 26th in EPA per play defending outside runs but 5th inside. And for as good as Carolina's run defense has been, the Panthers rank 29th in EPA per play against inside runs themselves, where New Orleans prefers to run the ball and may find some surprising success. This looks like an ugly, low scoring game. The total is below 40 and it looks windy with plenty of trends pointing under. Low scoring means a close game late and a chance for the underdog to steal. Since 2019, underdogs that have scored 16 or less in each of the last three games are 62% ATS — that's the Saints. By contrast, favorites that have scored 16 or less in each of their last three are 33% since 2018 — that's Carolina. We only have four matchups since 2018 where both of those things are true. The underdog is 3-1 ATS in those games, winning twice outright and losing another one by a single point. Tyler Shough didn't look too bad in his first start as a pro. Let's bet him to get his first NFL win at +215 on Saints ML (FanDuel).

This looks like one of the ugliest games of the year — two bad, tanking teams that probably both prefer to lose in a windy, rainy game with a line that flipped from Jets -2.5 to Browns -2.5 after New York traded away its two best defensive players. Both offenses have been terrible all season, and both teams are coming out of the bye. Typically, trends tell us to bet the under there, and this thing screams ugly, rainy, unwatchable 13-9 game at first glance. Surprise! We're going over, and we're taking the escalator. When both teams are rested in a game with a total under 40, games are actually 8-2 to the over in the last two decades, going over by 6.8 PPG, almost a full touchdown. When the total is 38 or below like this one, they're 5-0 to the over with at least 44 points in every game and an average of 50.6 PPG. That's a tiny sample, but dig a little deeper and you find some glimmers of hope. As ugly as Browns games have been, they've still hit at least 37 points all but three times this season, including three at 44+ and a 58. And though the Jets have memorably awful games with 19 and 24 total points, the rest of their games are at 40 or higher, and the average total in those games finished at 57.7 PPG with total scores of 56, 59, 66, and 77 — forgot about those weird Jets shootouts, didn't you? The Jets defense has been terrible, so that's part of it. New York ranks 30th in DVOA defensively, and that was before trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. The Browns enter this game with a new play caller in OC Tommy Rees too. That's an unknown, but it can hardly get worse for this Browns offense, so maybe Rees has some magic up his sleeve against a beatable defense. The other side of the ball is a tougher sell, since the Browns defense has looked so good. But check the home-road splits. Cleveland has allowed 11.0 PPG in three home games, and not exactly easy opposition: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Mike McDaniel's Dolphins. But on the road, the Browns have allowed 32.5 PPG, a massive difference. Weird, right? But here's what's weirder. Two years ago, when Jim Schwartz's defense was elite, it had the exact same splits: 13.9 PPG allowed at home but 31.3 PPG on the road. Jets games are also 11-4 to the over in their last 15. I've seen enough. Give me the over 37.5 — but we're not stopping there. Ugly unders are a sweat, because any score at any time threatens our total. But those games can go way over, because when the scoring does start, it can fly over the number in a hurry. That's right, we're taking an ugly Browns-Jets over escalator. Start with over 43.5 at +220, right below that key totals number. Even the Browns have hit that number four times already this season in games. Then keep going all the up — and I do mean all the way. Sprinkle over 49.5 at +390, over 55.5 at +830, over 59.5 at +1300, and over 65.5 at +2500, all at FanDuel. With any luck, this will turn into one of those goofy 39-38 shootouts that leads the Sunday recap. Everyone else will be shocked. We'll just be counting our winnings.

This looks like one of the ugliest games of the year — two bad, tanking teams that probably both prefer to lose in a windy, rainy game with a line that flipped from Jets -2.5 to Browns -2.5 after New York traded away its two best defensive players. Both offenses have been terrible all season, and both teams are coming out of the bye. Typically, trends tell us to bet the under there, and this thing screams ugly, rainy, unwatchable 13-9 game at first glance. Surprise! We're going over, and we're taking the escalator. When both teams are rested in a game with a total under 40, games are actually 8-2 to the over in the last two decades, going over by 6.8 PPG, almost a full touchdown. When the total is 38 or below like this one, they're 5-0 to the over with at least 44 points in every game and an average of 50.6 PPG. That's a tiny sample, but dig a little deeper and you find some glimmers of hope. As ugly as Browns games have been, they've still hit at least 37 points all but three times this season, including three at 44+ and a 58. And though the Jets have memorably awful games with 19 and 24 total points, the rest of their games are at 40 or higher, and the average total in those games finished at 57.7 PPG with total scores of 56, 59, 66, and 77 — forgot about those weird Jets shootouts, didn't you? The Jets defense has been terrible, so that's part of it. New York ranks 30th in DVOA defensively, and that was before trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. The Browns enter this game with a new play caller in OC Tommy Rees too. That's an unknown, but it can hardly get worse for this Browns offense, so maybe Rees has some magic up his sleeve against a beatable defense. The other side of the ball is a tougher sell, since the Browns defense has looked so good. But check the home-road splits. Cleveland has allowed 11.0 PPG in three home games, and not exactly easy opposition: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Mike McDaniel's Dolphins. But on the road, the Browns have allowed 32.5 PPG, a massive difference. Weird, right? But here's what's weirder. Two years ago, when Jim Schwartz's defense was elite, it had the exact same splits: 13.9 PPG allowed at home but 31.3 PPG on the road. Jets games are also 11-4 to the over in their last 15. I've seen enough. Give me the over 37.5 — but we're not stopping there. Ugly unders are a sweat, because any score at any time threatens our total. But those games can go way over, because when the scoring does start, it can fly over the number in a hurry. That's right, we're taking an ugly Browns-Jets over escalator. Start with over 43.5 at +220, right below that key totals number. Even the Browns have hit that number four times already this season in games. Then keep going all the up — and I do mean all the way. Sprinkle over 49.5 at +390, over 55.5 at +830, over 59.5 at +1300, and over 65.5 at +2500, all at FanDuel. With any luck, this will turn into one of those goofy 39-38 shootouts that leads the Sunday recap. Everyone else will be shocked. We'll just be counting our winnings.

This looks like one of the ugliest games of the year — two bad, tanking teams that probably both prefer to lose in a windy, rainy game with a line that flipped from Jets -2.5 to Browns -2.5 after New York traded away its two best defensive players. Both offenses have been terrible all season, and both teams are coming out of the bye. Typically, trends tell us to bet the under there, and this thing screams ugly, rainy, unwatchable 13-9 game at first glance. Surprise! We're going over, and we're taking the escalator. When both teams are rested in a game with a total under 40, games are actually 8-2 to the over in the last two decades, going over by 6.8 PPG, almost a full touchdown. When the total is 38 or below like this one, they're 5-0 to the over with at least 44 points in every game and an average of 50.6 PPG. That's a tiny sample, but dig a little deeper and you find some glimmers of hope. As ugly as Browns games have been, they've still hit at least 37 points all but three times this season, including three at 44+ and a 58. And though the Jets have memorably awful games with 19 and 24 total points, the rest of their games are at 40 or higher, and the average total in those games finished at 57.7 PPG with total scores of 56, 59, 66, and 77 — forgot about those weird Jets shootouts, didn't you? The Jets defense has been terrible, so that's part of it. New York ranks 30th in DVOA defensively, and that was before trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. The Browns enter this game with a new play caller in OC Tommy Rees too. That's an unknown, but it can hardly get worse for this Browns offense, so maybe Rees has some magic up his sleeve against a beatable defense. The other side of the ball is a tougher sell, since the Browns defense has looked so good. But check the home-road splits. Cleveland has allowed 11.0 PPG in three home games, and not exactly easy opposition: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Mike McDaniel's Dolphins. But on the road, the Browns have allowed 32.5 PPG, a massive difference. Weird, right? But here's what's weirder. Two years ago, when Jim Schwartz's defense was elite, it had the exact same splits: 13.9 PPG allowed at home but 31.3 PPG on the road. Jets games are also 11-4 to the over in their last 15. I've seen enough. Give me the over 37.5 — but we're not stopping there. Ugly unders are a sweat, because any score at any time threatens our total. But those games can go way over, because when the scoring does start, it can fly over the number in a hurry. That's right, we're taking an ugly Browns-Jets over escalator. Start with over 43.5 at +220, right below that key totals number. Even the Browns have hit that number four times already this season in games. Then keep going all the up — and I do mean all the way. Sprinkle over 49.5 at +390, over 55.5 at +830, over 59.5 at +1300, and over 65.5 at +2500, all at FanDuel. With any luck, this will turn into one of those goofy 39-38 shootouts that leads the Sunday recap. Everyone else will be shocked. We'll just be counting our winnings.

This looks like one of the ugliest games of the year — two bad, tanking teams that probably both prefer to lose in a windy, rainy game with a line that flipped from Jets -2.5 to Browns -2.5 after New York traded away its two best defensive players. Both offenses have been terrible all season, and both teams are coming out of the bye. Typically, trends tell us to bet the under there, and this thing screams ugly, rainy, unwatchable 13-9 game at first glance. Surprise! We're going over, and we're taking the escalator. When both teams are rested in a game with a total under 40, games are actually 8-2 to the over in the last two decades, going over by 6.8 PPG, almost a full touchdown. When the total is 38 or below like this one, they're 5-0 to the over with at least 44 points in every game and an average of 50.6 PPG. That's a tiny sample, but dig a little deeper and you find some glimmers of hope. As ugly as Browns games have been, they've still hit at least 37 points all but three times this season, including three at 44+ and a 58. And though the Jets have memorably awful games with 19 and 24 total points, the rest of their games are at 40 or higher, and the average total in those games finished at 57.7 PPG with total scores of 56, 59, 66, and 77 — forgot about those weird Jets shootouts, didn't you? The Jets defense has been terrible, so that's part of it. New York ranks 30th in DVOA defensively, and that was before trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. The Browns enter this game with a new play caller in OC Tommy Rees too. That's an unknown, but it can hardly get worse for this Browns offense, so maybe Rees has some magic up his sleeve against a beatable defense. The other side of the ball is a tougher sell, since the Browns defense has looked so good. But check the home-road splits. Cleveland has allowed 11.0 PPG in three home games, and not exactly easy opposition: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Mike McDaniel's Dolphins. But on the road, the Browns have allowed 32.5 PPG, a massive difference. Weird, right? But here's what's weirder. Two years ago, when Jim Schwartz's defense was elite, it had the exact same splits: 13.9 PPG allowed at home but 31.3 PPG on the road. Jets games are also 11-4 to the over in their last 15. I've seen enough. Give me the over 37.5 — but we're not stopping there. Ugly unders are a sweat, because any score at any time threatens our total. But those games can go way over, because when the scoring does start, it can fly over the number in a hurry. That's right, we're taking an ugly Browns-Jets over escalator. Start with over 43.5 at +220, right below that key totals number. Even the Browns have hit that number four times already this season in games. Then keep going all the up — and I do mean all the way. Sprinkle over 49.5 at +390, over 55.5 at +830, over 59.5 at +1300, and over 65.5 at +2500, all at FanDuel. With any luck, this will turn into one of those goofy 39-38 shootouts that leads the Sunday recap. Everyone else will be shocked. We'll just be counting our winnings.

This looks like one of the ugliest games of the year — two bad, tanking teams that probably both prefer to lose in a windy, rainy game with a line that flipped from Jets -2.5 to Browns -2.5 after New York traded away its two best defensive players. Both offenses have been terrible all season, and both teams are coming out of the bye. Typically, trends tell us to bet the under there, and this thing screams ugly, rainy, unwatchable 13-9 game at first glance. Surprise! We're going over, and we're taking the escalator. When both teams are rested in a game with a total under 40, games are actually 8-2 to the over in the last two decades, going over by 6.8 PPG, almost a full touchdown. When the total is 38 or below like this one, they're 5-0 to the over with at least 44 points in every game and an average of 50.6 PPG. That's a tiny sample, but dig a little deeper and you find some glimmers of hope. As ugly as Browns games have been, they've still hit at least 37 points all but three times this season, including three at 44+ and a 58. And though the Jets have memorably awful games with 19 and 24 total points, the rest of their games are at 40 or higher, and the average total in those games finished at 57.7 PPG with total scores of 56, 59, 66, and 77 — forgot about those weird Jets shootouts, didn't you? The Jets defense has been terrible, so that's part of it. New York ranks 30th in DVOA defensively, and that was before trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. The Browns enter this game with a new play caller in OC Tommy Rees too. That's an unknown, but it can hardly get worse for this Browns offense, so maybe Rees has some magic up his sleeve against a beatable defense. The other side of the ball is a tougher sell, since the Browns defense has looked so good. But check the home-road splits. Cleveland has allowed 11.0 PPG in three home games, and not exactly easy opposition: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Mike McDaniel's Dolphins. But on the road, the Browns have allowed 32.5 PPG, a massive difference. Weird, right? But here's what's weirder. Two years ago, when Jim Schwartz's defense was elite, it had the exact same splits: 13.9 PPG allowed at home but 31.3 PPG on the road. Jets games are also 11-4 to the over in their last 15. I've seen enough. Give me the over 37.5 — but we're not stopping there. Ugly unders are a sweat, because any score at any time threatens our total. But those games can go way over, because when the scoring does start, it can fly over the number in a hurry. That's right, we're taking an ugly Browns-Jets over escalator. Start with over 43.5 at +220, right below that key totals number. Even the Browns have hit that number four times already this season in games. Then keep going all the up — and I do mean all the way. Sprinkle over 49.5 at +390, over 55.5 at +830, over 59.5 at +1300, and over 65.5 at +2500, all at FanDuel. With any luck, this will turn into one of those goofy 39-38 shootouts that leads the Sunday recap. Everyone else will be shocked. We'll just be counting our winnings.

This looks like one of the ugliest games of the year — two bad, tanking teams that probably both prefer to lose in a windy, rainy game with a line that flipped from Jets -2.5 to Browns -2.5 after New York traded away its two best defensive players. Both offenses have been terrible all season, and both teams are coming out of the bye. Typically, trends tell us to bet the under there, and this thing screams ugly, rainy, unwatchable 13-9 game at first glance. Surprise! We're going over, and we're taking the escalator. When both teams are rested in a game with a total under 40, games are actually 8-2 to the over in the last two decades, going over by 6.8 PPG, almost a full touchdown. When the total is 38 or below like this one, they're 5-0 to the over with at least 44 points in every game and an average of 50.6 PPG. That's a tiny sample, but dig a little deeper and you find some glimmers of hope. As ugly as Browns games have been, they've still hit at least 37 points all but three times this season, including three at 44+ and a 58. And though the Jets have memorably awful games with 19 and 24 total points, the rest of their games are at 40 or higher, and the average total in those games finished at 57.7 PPG with total scores of 56, 59, 66, and 77 — forgot about those weird Jets shootouts, didn't you? The Jets defense has been terrible, so that's part of it. New York ranks 30th in DVOA defensively, and that was before trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. The Browns enter this game with a new play caller in OC Tommy Rees too. That's an unknown, but it can hardly get worse for this Browns offense, so maybe Rees has some magic up his sleeve against a beatable defense. The other side of the ball is a tougher sell, since the Browns defense has looked so good. But check the home-road splits. Cleveland has allowed 11.0 PPG in three home games, and not exactly easy opposition: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Mike McDaniel's Dolphins. But on the road, the Browns have allowed 32.5 PPG, a massive difference. Weird, right? But here's what's weirder. Two years ago, when Jim Schwartz's defense was elite, it had the exact same splits: 13.9 PPG allowed at home but 31.3 PPG on the road. Jets games are also 11-4 to the over in their last 15. I've seen enough. Give me the over 37.5 — but we're not stopping there. Ugly unders are a sweat, because any score at any time threatens our total. But those games can go way over, because when the scoring does start, it can fly over the number in a hurry. That's right, we're taking an ugly Browns-Jets over escalator. Start with over 43.5 at +220, right below that key totals number. Even the Browns have hit that number four times already this season in games. Then keep going all the up — and I do mean all the way. Sprinkle over 49.5 at +390, over 55.5 at +830, over 59.5 at +1300, and over 65.5 at +2500, all at FanDuel. With any luck, this will turn into one of those goofy 39-38 shootouts that leads the Sunday recap. Everyone else will be shocked. We'll just be counting our winnings.

🔥 Week 10 Hot Read 🔥

This is such a fascinating game. Neither team is probably quite as good as its record, and this is an interesting test for Drake Maye against Todd Bowles' rested defense since the Patriots have played such a soft schedule. It's an intriguing matchup of coaching styles and personnel groupings. Neither team should run much given the strength of both run defenses, but both offenses look likely to be missing key names. The Bucs are still not sure to get Bucky Irving or Chris Godwin back even after the bye, and the Patriots may be without Kayshon Boutte and Rhamondre Stevenson. Both defenses have been good against base 11 personnel, but both offenses prefer to play in 12, with multiple tight ends on the field. The Bucs have leapt from 19% in 12 personnel the first five games to 39% the last three games with so many WRs hurt. That means Cade Otton as usual, but it's also meant an increase in Payne Durham snaps,from around 25% to almost half over the last three games. You're forgiven if you haven't noticed, though. Durham has one single target all season and didn't catch it, so he's yet to have a reception, despite all that time on the field. The Patriots are tied for sixth in most TDs allowed to opposing TEs, and it's not exactly a murderer's row — guys like Tommy Tremble, Mitchell Evans, and Taysom Hill. Could Payne Durham join the list? Let's find out at +1000 for an Anytime TD (bet365) for a guy that should be on the field around half the time in what should be a high-scoring game. The truth, though, is that I stumbled onto the Durham price while looking for Otton props, because he gets almost the entire TE workload for this team in the passing game. The Patriots allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. They've already allowed at least four receptions to eight different TEs, four in the last three games alone. They've also allowed TE reception games of 8, 9, 10, and 10. Those are usually split up among a few guys, but in Tampa, it's usually just Otton catching passes at TE! Otton had only six catches the first four games of the season, but he's had 20 in the last four, with 4+ catches in all of them and 5.0 per game. He has at least four catches in over half of his last 20 games, including games with 7, 8, 8, and 9 receptions. I was hoping to play Otton over 3.5 receptions, but his line posted at 4.5, so I'll skip the median outcome and go for the high-end numbers with Tampa Bay so shorthanded and lacking pass catching options. Play the Otton receptions escalator: seven catches for +350, eight for +700, and 9+ for +1200, all at bet365.

This is such a fascinating game. Neither team is probably quite as good as its record, and this is an interesting test for Drake Maye against Todd Bowles' rested defense since the Patriots have played such a soft schedule. It's an intriguing matchup of coaching styles and personnel groupings. Neither team should run much given the strength of both run defenses, but both offenses look likely to be missing key names. The Bucs are still not sure to get Bucky Irving or Chris Godwin back even after the bye, and the Patriots may be without Kayshon Boutte and Rhamondre Stevenson. Both defenses have been good against base 11 personnel, but both offenses prefer to play in 12, with multiple tight ends on the field. The Bucs have leapt from 19% in 12 personnel the first five games to 39% the last three games with so many WRs hurt. That means Cade Otton as usual, but it's also meant an increase in Payne Durham snaps,from around 25% to almost half over the last three games. You're forgiven if you haven't noticed, though. Durham has one single target all season and didn't catch it, so he's yet to have a reception, despite all that time on the field. The Patriots are tied for sixth in most TDs allowed to opposing TEs, and it's not exactly a murderer's row — guys like Tommy Tremble, Mitchell Evans, and Taysom Hill. Could Payne Durham join the list? Let's find out at +1000 for an Anytime TD (bet365) for a guy that should be on the field around half the time in what should be a high-scoring game. The truth, though, is that I stumbled onto the Durham price while looking for Otton props, because he gets almost the entire TE workload for this team in the passing game. The Patriots allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. They've already allowed at least four receptions to eight different TEs, four in the last three games alone. They've also allowed TE reception games of 8, 9, 10, and 10. Those are usually split up among a few guys, but in Tampa, it's usually just Otton catching passes at TE! Otton had only six catches the first four games of the season, but he's had 20 in the last four, with 4+ catches in all of them and 5.0 per game. He has at least four catches in over half of his last 20 games, including games with 7, 8, 8, and 9 receptions. I was hoping to play Otton over 3.5 receptions, but his line posted at 4.5, so I'll skip the median outcome and go for the high-end numbers with Tampa Bay so shorthanded and lacking pass catching options. Play the Otton receptions escalator: seven catches for +350, eight for +700, and 9+ for +1200, all at bet365.

This is such a fascinating game. Neither team is probably quite as good as its record, and this is an interesting test for Drake Maye against Todd Bowles' rested defense since the Patriots have played such a soft schedule. It's an intriguing matchup of coaching styles and personnel groupings. Neither team should run much given the strength of both run defenses, but both offenses look likely to be missing key names. The Bucs are still not sure to get Bucky Irving or Chris Godwin back even after the bye, and the Patriots may be without Kayshon Boutte and Rhamondre Stevenson. Both defenses have been good against base 11 personnel, but both offenses prefer to play in 12, with multiple tight ends on the field. The Bucs have leapt from 19% in 12 personnel the first five games to 39% the last three games with so many WRs hurt. That means Cade Otton as usual, but it's also meant an increase in Payne Durham snaps,from around 25% to almost half over the last three games. You're forgiven if you haven't noticed, though. Durham has one single target all season and didn't catch it, so he's yet to have a reception, despite all that time on the field. The Patriots are tied for sixth in most TDs allowed to opposing TEs, and it's not exactly a murderer's row — guys like Tommy Tremble, Mitchell Evans, and Taysom Hill. Could Payne Durham join the list? Let's find out at +1000 for an Anytime TD (bet365) for a guy that should be on the field around half the time in what should be a high-scoring game. The truth, though, is that I stumbled onto the Durham price while looking for Otton props, because he gets almost the entire TE workload for this team in the passing game. The Patriots allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. They've already allowed at least four receptions to eight different TEs, four in the last three games alone. They've also allowed TE reception games of 8, 9, 10, and 10. Those are usually split up among a few guys, but in Tampa, it's usually just Otton catching passes at TE! Otton had only six catches the first four games of the season, but he's had 20 in the last four, with 4+ catches in all of them and 5.0 per game. He has at least four catches in over half of his last 20 games, including games with 7, 8, 8, and 9 receptions. I was hoping to play Otton over 3.5 receptions, but his line posted at 4.5, so I'll skip the median outcome and go for the high-end numbers with Tampa Bay so shorthanded and lacking pass catching options. Play the Otton receptions escalator: seven catches for +350, eight for +700, and 9+ for +1200, all at bet365.

This is such a fascinating game. Neither team is probably quite as good as its record, and this is an interesting test for Drake Maye against Todd Bowles' rested defense since the Patriots have played such a soft schedule. It's an intriguing matchup of coaching styles and personnel groupings. Neither team should run much given the strength of both run defenses, but both offenses look likely to be missing key names. The Bucs are still not sure to get Bucky Irving or Chris Godwin back even after the bye, and the Patriots may be without Kayshon Boutte and Rhamondre Stevenson. Both defenses have been good against base 11 personnel, but both offenses prefer to play in 12, with multiple tight ends on the field. The Bucs have leapt from 19% in 12 personnel the first five games to 39% the last three games with so many WRs hurt. That means Cade Otton as usual, but it's also meant an increase in Payne Durham snaps,from around 25% to almost half over the last three games. You're forgiven if you haven't noticed, though. Durham has one single target all season and didn't catch it, so he's yet to have a reception, despite all that time on the field. The Patriots are tied for sixth in most TDs allowed to opposing TEs, and it's not exactly a murderer's row — guys like Tommy Tremble, Mitchell Evans, and Taysom Hill. Could Payne Durham join the list? Let's find out at +1000 for an Anytime TD (bet365) for a guy that should be on the field around half the time in what should be a high-scoring game. The truth, though, is that I stumbled onto the Durham price while looking for Otton props, because he gets almost the entire TE workload for this team in the passing game. The Patriots allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. They've already allowed at least four receptions to eight different TEs, four in the last three games alone. They've also allowed TE reception games of 8, 9, 10, and 10. Those are usually split up among a few guys, but in Tampa, it's usually just Otton catching passes at TE! Otton had only six catches the first four games of the season, but he's had 20 in the last four, with 4+ catches in all of them and 5.0 per game. He has at least four catches in over half of his last 20 games, including games with 7, 8, 8, and 9 receptions. I was hoping to play Otton over 3.5 receptions, but his line posted at 4.5, so I'll skip the median outcome and go for the high-end numbers with Tampa Bay so shorthanded and lacking pass catching options. Play the Otton receptions escalator: seven catches for +350, eight for +700, and 9+ for +1200, all at bet365.

The Ravens feel like the right side here, but paying above the key number of three feels hefty. The Vikings offense looks like the weakest unit of the four. It's too soon to trust J.J. McCarthy yet, though the Ravens defense is also a question mark but seems to be getting healthy and improving with Kyle Hamilton in a new role. The question is what the best unit is — Ravens offense or Vikings defense? Brian Flores had some tricks up his sleeve the last time his defense faced Lamar Jackson, blitzing him into oblivion and really blowing up Jackson's season, but Lamar has grown since then and will be ready now, especially with Baltimore on extra rest. Minnesota's defense was outstanding last week but has been subpar against the run and inconsistent bringing pressure. The Vikings have also been hurt by scrambling QBs this season like Caleb Williams and Justin Herbert, and it's always tough for an NFC opponent to stop Lamar Jackson when it just hasn't seen him much before. If you want a side, I prefer Ravens but the number isn't there. You can duck under the key number with Ravens 1H, since Jackson is 63% ATS 1H for his career and the Vikings are 2-6 ATS 1H, though one of those two Minnesota wins just came last week. Instead, I prefer to avoid the unknowns when Minnesota's offense attacks Baltimore's defense and just attack the Ravens offense. Baltimore averages 33.8 PPG with Jackson this season, and the Ravens have scored at least 28 points in all five games with him on the field. In fact, they've scored 28+ in nine straight with Jackson and in all 15 Baltimore wins since the start of last season. That makes a Ravens team total over 26.5 something of a proxy (-115, BetRivers) for a much more juiced Ravens moneyline. The Vikings have faced two backup QBs this season but allow 26.5 PPG against starting QBs this year. That's right at that number, but the Ravens are no average offense with Jackson healthy. In 15 wins since the start of last season, the Ravens average 34.3 PPG and have scored 34+ in over half of them. Put a bit of your bet on Ravens over 33.5 points too at +270 (DraftKings).

The Ravens feel like the right side here, but paying above the key number of three feels hefty. The Vikings offense looks like the weakest unit of the four. It's too soon to trust J.J. McCarthy yet, though the Ravens defense is also a question mark but seems to be getting healthy and improving with Kyle Hamilton in a new role. The question is what the best unit is — Ravens offense or Vikings defense? Brian Flores had some tricks up his sleeve the last time his defense faced Lamar Jackson, blitzing him into oblivion and really blowing up Jackson's season, but Lamar has grown since then and will be ready now, especially with Baltimore on extra rest. Minnesota's defense was outstanding last week but has been subpar against the run and inconsistent bringing pressure. The Vikings have also been hurt by scrambling QBs this season like Caleb Williams and Justin Herbert, and it's always tough for an NFC opponent to stop Lamar Jackson when it just hasn't seen him much before. If you want a side, I prefer Ravens but the number isn't there. You can duck under the key number with Ravens 1H, since Jackson is 63% ATS 1H for his career and the Vikings are 2-6 ATS 1H, though one of those two Minnesota wins just came last week. Instead, I prefer to avoid the unknowns when Minnesota's offense attacks Baltimore's defense and just attack the Ravens offense. Baltimore averages 33.8 PPG with Jackson this season, and the Ravens have scored at least 28 points in all five games with him on the field. In fact, they've scored 28+ in nine straight with Jackson and in all 15 Baltimore wins since the start of last season. That makes a Ravens team total over 26.5 something of a proxy (-115, BetRivers) for a much more juiced Ravens moneyline. The Vikings have faced two backup QBs this season but allow 26.5 PPG against starting QBs this year. That's right at that number, but the Ravens are no average offense with Jackson healthy. In 15 wins since the start of last season, the Ravens average 34.3 PPG and have scored 34+ in over half of them. Put a bit of your bet on Ravens over 33.5 points too at +270 (DraftKings).

I see very little value betting the spread or moneyline in this one. Predicting coin flips is a losing endeavor. We know this game will likely be back-and-forth, so can we predict the ebbs and flows? The Bills have been much worse early in games. Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in the first half this season, but they're 5-2 ATS in the second half, and Josh Allen is 67% ATS in the second half for his career. Could that mean a Chiefs 1H & Bills 2H SGP? Perhaps, but that feels like threading the needle and hoping halftime lands at the right moment. These teams have met nine times with Allen and Mahomes. The Bills have led at some point in all nine matchups. In fact, both teams have had the lead in all but one of those matchups. At DraftKings under Team Props > Comeback, we can bet on the Chiefs to win from behind at +215. That's my preferred way to bet on a Chiefs win — and it's hit in all five Mahomes wins against Buffalo. If you like the Bills to win, history says that's a profitable way to bet Buffalo too. Heck, you could even just bet both together for either team to win from behind and profit historically.

If we think this is back-and-forth and close late, we can bet on that too. We almost always get fireworks late in this rivalry. Both teams have scored in the fourth quarter in all but one matchup, a playoff game. And at most books, we can bet that! You can bet "Both teams to score in the fourth quarter" at -190 at bet365. That may feel steep but an implied 65% is well short of the actual hit rate of 89% so far in the rivalry. If you don't like betting the juice standalone, that's also addable as a parlay leg at many books. There's another way to bet on a close game late. The last six Chiefs-Bills matchups were decided by three, nine, three, three, four, and six points. The six came in overtime, meaning regulation ended at zero. The nine was actually a two-point game with two minutes left until Allen ripped off an incredible 26-yard TD run through the entire defense to win MVP and put the game away. Basically, history tells us this is a tie or field goal game late and likely ends that way — so let's bet it! Build an SGP of Chiefs +6.5 and Bills +6.5 to play neither team to win by at least seven points. You can bet that at +107 at FanDuel. If you're a regular reader and you think these bets sound familiar, it's because they should! We bet them almost every Chiefs-Bills game because they hit almost every time. And that brings us to my favorite prop on the board: Josh Allen rushing overs.

If we think this is back-and-forth and close late, we can bet on that too. We almost always get fireworks late in this rivalry. Both teams have scored in the fourth quarter in all but one matchup, a playoff game. And at most books, we can bet that! You can bet "Both teams to score in the fourth quarter" at -190 at bet365. That may feel steep but an implied 65% is well short of the actual hit rate of 89% so far in the rivalry. If you don't like betting the juice standalone, that's also addable as a parlay leg at many books. There's another way to bet on a close game late. The last six Chiefs-Bills matchups were decided by three, nine, three, three, four, and six points. The six came in overtime, meaning regulation ended at zero. The nine was actually a two-point game with two minutes left until Allen ripped off an incredible 26-yard TD run through the entire defense to win MVP and put the game away. Basically, history tells us this is a tie or field goal game late and likely ends that way — so let's bet it! Build an SGP of Chiefs +6.5 and Bills +6.5 to play neither team to win by at least seven points. You can bet that at +107 at FanDuel.

The Bills consistently save Josh Allen's legs for the biggest games. The numbers don't lie. You can go back through the game log any year, circle the big games on the schedule, and voila, Allen's rushing numbers magically spike in those games. It's happened already this season. Look at Buffalo's schedule. What are its biggest games so far? Baltimore in the opener, before the Ravens crashed, and the big division game against New England. Allen averaged 11.5 rushing attempts per game in those two matchups — and just 5.2 against the rest of the schedule. That's pretty close to what we've seen against the Chiefs through nine games: Allen averages 10.3 rushing attempts per game for 45 yards, a significant boost from 6.8 attempts per game for his career (and even higher in playoff matchups). These teams rank second and third in rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs this season, behind only Dallas. Buffalo has already faced Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and TyRod Taylor, so that may not mean much. Patrick Mahomes has gone over his posted 26.5 rushing yards line in six of eight games this season, but his rushing stats have been inconsistent in these Buffalo games. I don't mind it but don't need it. The Chiefs have allowed the most rushing attempts to quarterbacks of any team in the NFL at 50 already, 6.3 per game. Five QBs have rushed at least six times, and five have run for at least 27 yards. They've also allowed three short TD runs to QBs. So do we bet Allen for rushing attempts, yards, or any anytime touchdown… how about all three?! At 35.5 rushing yards (-114, BetRivers), Allen's line is bumped from its usual but still not high enough. He's run for at least 32 yards in all nine Chiefs games, giving us an incredible floor. Allen has at least 50 rushing yards in over half of his Chiefs matchups (5 of 9), so that's worth playing too at +190 (bet365). I like rushing attempts even better. Allen has at least eight rushing attempts in all but one Chiefs game, and he had seven in that one. We're getting plus money on over 7.5 rushing attempts (+102, FanDuel) so that's a no brainer, and 10+ attempts at +375 (bet365) may be my favorite bet of the entire bunch. Allen has double-digit rushing attempts in seven of nine Chiefs games (78%)! And when Allen does run eight times, he almost always finds the endzone as a runner too. Since the start of last season, Allen has an Anytime TD in 15 of 19 games (79%) when he has at least eight rushing attempts, and he's had multiple scores in eight of those 15. In a game with a total in the 50s, an Anytime TD bet at +115 (Fanatics) is an easy click, and 2+ TDs is even juicier at +800 (FanDuel).

My favorite side of the week. Was hoping we might get a +3.5 but moving the other way and don’t want to lose the 3. Last week was a great Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot. We knew it but sat it out anyway, and the Steelers came through with their best game of the season. The Steel Curtain finally showed up, dominating what had been the league's best offensive line and forcing six turnovers. Now they get to play the Chargers, who are on pretty much the other end of the spectrum of offensive lines. Los Angeles lost Rashawn Slater before the season, and now Joe Alt is out for the year too. That's the league's best tackle duo missing, along with big ticket free agent G Mekhi Becton and swing tackle Bobby Hart. This line is in shambles, bottom five in the league and five is probably being kind, and now it has to find answers against T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, Alex Highsmith, and Nick Herbig, one of the most talented defensive fronts in the league. Since drafting Alt, the Chargers are 15-5 SU when Alt plays at least half the snaps but 2-5 without him. This team has already been struggling to run the ball without its top two RBs, and now Justin Herbert will likely be under pressure all night. Meanwhile, LA's run defense looks like the weakest unit on the field. It ranks 27th by DVOA and Pittsburgh has run the ball very well this year, top five by DVOA with Jaylen Warren getting most of the work and excelling in Arthur Smith's scheme. Aaron Rodgers has also been at his best when he can get the ball out quickly, and the Chargers don't offer much pressure. On top of all that, Pittsburgh should have a huge special teams advantage, and the Steelers could even end up with something of a home field advantage in LA where Chargers fans are sparse and Steelers fans should show up in drives with their Terrible Towels. It's always a good idea to consider backing Tomlin as an underdog. He's 54-24-1 ATS as a dog from Week 5 forward (68%), though this is not a home game, not in the division, not after a big loss — things that usually make for a better Rah Rah spot. It does fit another trend though. When Tomlin is an underdog immediately after winning outright as a dog, the Steelers are an incredible 20-5-2 ATS, covering 80% of the time and winning the last eight such meetings outright! Bet Steelers +3 to get the cover on Sunday night. And rather than investing much on a +130 ML play as an escalator, take it one step further. If the Chargers do lose here, they're suddenly up against it with the Jaguars up next, with both opponents key competitors in the AFC wildcard race. I recommended Chargers to miss the playoff at +225 (BetRivers) as my Extra Point in this week's Pick Six, and that works as a great escalator to a Steelers win here.

Last week was a great Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot. We knew it but sat it out anyway, and the Steelers came through with their best game of the season. The Steel Curtain finally showed up, dominating what had been the league's best offensive line and forcing six turnovers. Now they get to play the Chargers, who are on pretty much the other end of the spectrum of offensive lines. Los Angeles lost Rashawn Slater before the season, and now Joe Alt is out for the year too. That's the league's best tackle duo missing, along with big ticket free agent G Mekhi Becton and swing tackle Bobby Hart. This line is in shambles, bottom five in the league and five is probably being kind, and now it has to find answers against T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, Alex Highsmith, and Nick Herbig, one of the most talented defensive fronts in the league. Since drafting Alt, the Chargers are 15-5 SU when Alt plays at least half the snaps but 2-5 without him. This team has already been struggling to run the ball without its top two RBs, and now Justin Herbert will likely be under pressure all night. Meanwhile, LA's run defense looks like the weakest unit on the field. It ranks 27th by DVOA and Pittsburgh has run the ball very well this year, top five by DVOA with Jaylen Warren getting most of the work and excelling in Arthur Smith's scheme. Aaron Rodgers has also been at his best when he can get the ball out quickly, and the Chargers don't offer much pressure. On top of all that, Pittsburgh should have a huge special teams advantage, and the Steelers could even end up with something of a home field advantage in LA where Chargers fans are sparse and Steelers fans should show up in drives with their Terrible Towels. It's always a good idea to consider backing Tomlin as an underdog. He's 54-24-1 ATS as a dog from Week 5 forward (68%), though this is not a home game, not in the division, not after a big loss — things that usually make for a better Rah Rah spot. It does fit another trend though. When Tomlin is an underdog immediately after winning outright as a dog, the Steelers are an incredible 20-5-2 ATS, covering 80% of the time and winning the last eight such meetings outright! Bet Steelers +3 to get the cover on Sunday night. And rather than investing much on a +130 ML play as an escalator, take it one step further. If the Chargers do lose here, they're suddenly up against it with the Jaguars up next, with both opponents key competitors in the AFC wildcard race. I recommended Chargers to miss the playoff at +225 (BetRivers) as my Extra Point in this week's Pick Six, and that works as a great escalator to a Steelers win here.

WEEK 11 LOOKAHEAD  Last week's Lookahead pick was one of my favorite of the season — Lions -3 in a revenge spot against an ailing Washington squad. That pick is looking pretty tasty a week later with Jayden Daniels out. This week's Lookahead is a bit less aggressive, but it's all about the spot. We started our day in Berlin long ago with the Falcons and Colts, but now Atlanta has to cross six time zones to return home for a game without a bye week. When teams return from an international game with no bye, those tired teams have tied or trailed in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 following games. That tells us Atlanta should at least leave the door open for Carolina late. The Panthers have won six of 11 against Atlanta, and seven of those 11 were one-score games, so this division rivalry is usually close. Road dogs of between three and seven points are 56.4% in division games over the last two decades, so this is a good spot to back Carolina, whose stout run defense may hold up against Atlanta. I make this closer to a toss-up and the line may head that direction if Sunday's results go as expected, with Atlanta losing big to start the morning and Carolina getting a big win over the Saints. If that happens, Atlanta will be on a four-game losing streak while the Panthers will have won five of six and fully entered the playoff race, and there's no way this stays above the key number. Grab Panthers +3.5 while it's available.