Brandon Anderson

I have the Texans, Chiefs, and Eagles all over 70% to win their watered-down divisions. That makes each of them a great standalone division bet: Houston +110, Kansas City -105, and Philadelphia -130. This is a great way to parlay three favorites together at +633, when I make the three parlayed about a coin flip. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-parlay-division-winner-picks-for-eagles-chiefs-texans

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

Tailing @TurveyBets fav 3 wnba futures, listen to his case on WNBA Buckets 🪣

Tailing @TurveyBets fav 3 wnba futures, listen to his case on WNBA Buckets 🪣

Tailing @TurveyBets fav 3 wnba futures, listen to his case on WNBA Buckets 🪣 Phee lit it up all summer with Unrivaled but left the playoffs disappointed so maybe she��ll parlay that into an MVP breakout

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

I'm looking at Ben Johnson and what do Ben Johnson's offenses do? They run the ball into the end zone. Look no further than what David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have been up to the last few years. That duo has combined for an absurd 41 touchdowns over the last two seasons. Johnson's offense ranked top three in rushing touchdowns all three years in Detroit. One of those years, D'Andre Swift was on the team — but he only had five TDs. Jamaal Williams had 17 (2022) and led the league. All the reporting out of Chicago indicates that Roschon Johnson is the goal-line guy. Give me all the vulture TDs. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-props-long-shot-picks-for-nick-chubb-roschon-johnson-rj-harvey

For most of Sunday night, I spent the evening cackling at my screen. How could you not? Lamar Jackson danced around the screen, firing lasers to a wide-open-again Zay Flowers and turning 30-yard sacks into 19-yard scampers. When he got tired, Baltimore handed it off to Derrick Henry, who trucked a few defenders and burst down the sidelines for another long run. Somewhere in between, we remembered DeAndre Hopkins was on this team when he snagged a one-handed score. Flowers had a career-high 143 yards. Henry had 169 yards and two scores. Jackson had a 98th percentile 0.69 EPA per play on over 11 YPA. The Ravens posted a 0.39 EPA per play on the night, 98th percentile and over 50% ahead of the Bills, while averaging 8.6 yards per play. And then, like it has so many times before, it all came crashing down. Henry fumbled, the secondary couldn't stop a nosebleed, the offense disappeared late and the Ravens choked, losing by a score of 41-40. The Ravens had around a 99% probability of winning with under five minutes left; now they're 0-1. It's the eighth loss since 2021 for Baltimore when it hit a win probability of at least 90%, five more than any other team. Baltimore just keeps blowing these games somehow. And at some point, that has to be a pattern… right? It is a pattern — but maybe not the one you think. The pattern is that Baltimore keeps blowing quality and even great opponents out of the water and getting to 90 and even 99% win probability. That means more chances to blow an occasional lead late, so that part is happening too because hey, the ball is oblong and football is hard. But what Sunday night told us most meaningfully with 21 weeks of football to go is that Baltimore is the best team in football — by far. The Bills are No. 2 in my power ratings matrix, a loaded roster led by the reigning MVP, and the Ravens treated them like a plaything for 55 minutes. Baltimore looked like it could score anytime it wanted. The Ravens were embarrassing the Bills, in their own home. I have the Ravens almost four full points to the spread ahead of the Bills — as far ahead of Buffalo as the Bills are ahead of the Steelers and Seahawks. It's Baltimore and everyone else. That doesn't mean the Ravens are perfect. The defense allowed seven trips to the red zone, and the veteran secondary disappointed. Baltimore consistently gets overly conservative calling plays, especially holding a late lead. The Ravens had a 48% neutral pass rate, ahead of only the Jets. That's unacceptable when your QB is a two-time MVP averaging a first down per throw. But Sunday night should make us more confident in the Ravens, not less. It's not possible to give Baltimore a bigger test than it got Sunday night — on the road, in primetime, against the best non-Ravens team in the league — and Baltimore completely aced the test for 55 minutes before sports happened. The Ravens were so good Sunday that their Super Bowl odds barely changed at books, despite the loss. Their odds actually went up at FTN. That means it's time to invest in Baltimore stock in a rare buy-low spot — possibly our last. FTN projects Baltimore to go 12.1-3.9 the rest of the way. The Ravens are still projected with the second-best record in the NFL, 0.3 wins behind Buffalo, with a 93% chance of making the playoffs, a 75% shot of winning the AFC North, and over 50% at a top-2 seed. Pick your favorite bet or take the whole escalator. There's clear value on the division at -135 (FanDuel), implied 57%, especially with a get-right Browns game up next. There's also value on a Ravens 1-seed (+550, BetMGM), and especially on most wins (+900, DraftKings), since the Ravens can split that one even with a Buffalo tie. Sunday didn't show us Baltimore is a fraud. It showed us the Ravens are the best team in football, by far — and simultaneously gave us a chance to invest.

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

New award!! Williams is one of the best to ever play on the offensive line. And even at age 37, he still hasn't lost a step. He is as good and as valuable as anyone when he's out there — and noticeably just as valuable when he's not. Williams misses a few games each season but for an award without stats, that's probably not as important. He's arguably the most valuable player on the 49ers, a team capable of winning 12-plus games and making a push for the NFC 1-seed, and that's for a team without a clear MVP candidate, which makes this an excellent way of rewarding a great San Francisco season. If nothing else, this could just be a legacy pick for Williams. Who better to win the first Protector of the Year award than the guy who plays the most valuable position on the line just about as well as anyone who's ever played it? https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds

New award!! Thuney is widely regarded as one of the league's best guards, and he's got an easy narrative case. He already filled in admirably at both C and LT for the Chiefs en route to a Super Bowl berth last season — now he moves to the Bears, who could see a huge bump in line play and win profile. He might even get double credit if Kansas City's line falls off some without him. Thuney has committed five penalties the last three seasons combined. In nine NFL seasons, he's played in six Super Bowls with four rings and four All-Pro berths — and two missed starts. If Chicago makes a leap with an improved line, Thuney would be an excellent candidate at a pretty long number. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds

New award!! There are two linemen at each position on the six-man panel, which means two centers — the one position there's not multiple of on the line. And with Frank Ragnow retired, Humphrey is probably the most surefire consensus best in the NFL at his position. Many centers are great at run blocking, but Humphrey is one of the few who's also great at pass blocking. Life will be much harder this year without Joe Thuney next to him, though. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds

If Houston does push to the top of the AFC, DeMeco Ryans will get credit for the defense and could even get this as something of a career achievement award for the three-year arc of a team that won just three games in 2022. Ryans is certainly a longer shot, but he's also a great way to invest in a post-hype Texans team that's quietly become a bit underrated and overlooked. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-coach-of-the-year-predictions-picks-odds

POST PARSONS UPDATE: no longer interested in investing, cash out if possible What if Schottenheimer is a decent or even good head coach? What if he puts together an innovative offense and utilizes exciting young names on his staff like Klayton Adams and Ken Dorsey? What if Matt Eberflus puts a talented defense back together? Dallas could easily push for a division crown and then the sky's the limit in the NFC. This is a contrarian bet against myself. It's a great way to invest in the Cowboys this season at a supremely discounted price. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-coach-of-the-year-predictions-picks-odds

Robinson quietly did a terrific job coaxing an above average Offensive DVOA out of this team last year, considering he had to do so as a first-time playcaller with an old QB who couldn't move in Kirk Cousins and then a rookie debut in Michael Penix. If Penix continues to improve and keeps hitting those deep shots all season, this could be an explosive offense and Robinson could be the next Ben Johnson — architect of a great offense and future head coach, the talk of the league. Robinson is a bullseye for Assistant Coach of the Year, and this is a great way to bet on a high-end outcome for the Falcons Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Minter came with Jim Harbaugh from Michigan and worked wonders with an under-talented Chargers roster, turning them into one of the league's surprisingly great pass defenses. Minter mixed up coverages early on and got breakout seasons from young players like CB Tarheeb Still and LB Daiyan Henley. The Chargers offense could struggle some this year with stud T Rashawn Slater out. If L.A.'s defense carries it back to the playoffs with another aggressive campaign, Minter will be a buzzy head coaching candidate and could very well win this award. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Kingsbury did a great job adding creative run schemes to his playcalling, and he also called the plays that repeatedly helped the team convert in huge fourth downs all season, going a ridiculous 20-of-23. What if Kingsbury and the offense keep that up with an even bigger step forward, but Daniels isn't ready for MVP quite yet? Washington's defense is old and not great, so this would definitely be the side of the ball that gets credit. Kingsbury could be the perfect guy to get credit for a successful Commanders campaign, and he's got that failed head coach bounce-back narrative in his favor as well. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

49ers as next year’s Eagles? My first 2026 Super Bowl pick Hot Read 🔥: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2026-nfl-futures-expert-projects-next-season-super-bowl-pick

NOTE: this pick was from February, before the team moved on from Geno, DK, Lockett. I’m not interested heading into the new season. Next year’s Vikings? Elite D, great O weapons & new OC Kubiak elevates O: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2026-nfl-futures-expert-projects-next-season-super-bowl-pick

NOTE: this pick was from early summer before all the troubling injury news to Stafford and Alaric, and at a longer number. I’m not interested at his current price/situation heading into the new season. MVP requires stats, wins, and narrative. Rams offense should be far healthier + Davante Adams, which could mean huge numbers and a push into top 5 all time pass yards, plus big wins and a top 2 seed if the young defensive front continues to improve. Would be a crowning HOF achievement at his age and an obvious media narrative boost. No reason a QB this good on a team this talented to be priced this long. Should be half this number max. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-mvp-futures-picks-best-5000-long-shot-on-board

BEARS ISLAND 🏝️🏝️🏝️🏝️🏝️ Chicago is my annual worst to first division winner pick, and with that huge leap in coaching and offensive line, how could it ever have been anyone other than Ben & Caleb? Read the whole case ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-futures-worst-to-first-rankings-tiers-predictions

We already know Tagovailoa will post awesome numbers for Mike McDaniel when healthy, and we already know the Dolphins with Tua healthy are a winning team. Tagovailoa has a winning record in all three McDaniel seasons and 4500/30 pace over 17 games. Of course, Tagovailoa is a significant injury risk, but if he actually stays healthy for most of the season, the Dolphins should push for nine or 10 wins and the playoffs. Tagovailoa should be in the mix with any other QB option for this award. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

The entire world saw Greenlaw tear his Achilles in the Super Bowl. He played just two games last year, but we already know Greenlaw can be about as good and impactful as any linebacker in football when healthy. Now Greenlaw joins a Denver defense that already ranked among the league's finest last season. If the Broncos take another step and are a clear No. 1 unit with Greenlaw buzzing around the field at the heart of everything, he'll get a ton of media attention. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

TRADE UPDATE: happy with our huge CLV, clear media fav now, but new unknown situation means caution too. If you missed, don’t chase steam now. Parsons was the betting favorite in each of the last two seasons, and he'd absolutely be my favorite again if I were making the odds. It seems pretty clear Parsons will win DPOY at some point in his career, maybe more than one. He would be my clear favorite for an award we overwhelmingly give to favorites. Parsons was priced at +600 last season; I wouldn't price him longer than +300. But you can bet him at +800 at DraftKings or Caesars, or an outlandish +1350 at Circa. I don't just like Micah Parsons for DPOY — I absolutely love him. He's my favorite awards bet of the entire 2025 awards circuit, and I'm investing multiple units while we get this outrageous discount. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

There's reason to believe Hunter, not Brian Thomas Jr., will step into that power slot role Godwin occupied, especially considering his elite Reception Perception route tree. I'm of the belief that Hunter will be a part-time defender, especially after missing much of training camp with that injury. And maybe, rather than those snaps taking away from Hunter's offensive upside, we're thinking about it all wrong — I think any defensive snaps and the occasional highlight play or kick return could just act as extra credit for Hunter's OROY case. I think the positional uncertainty and injury questions are buying us value. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

The Broncos want to run to protect Bo Nix, and Denver has the consensus second-best offensive line in the league. And though Javonte Williams stunk last season, he did get 217 carries. Sean Payton's system has been great for RBs, with his team finishing top seven in rushing TDs over half his seasons as a head coach and a long history of using his backs in the passing game. Alvin Kamara won OROY under Payton, and Harvey has flashed versatility as a receiver in the preseason, and he ran for 1,400+ yards and 16+ TDs each of his last two seasons at Central Florida. Harvey remains undervalued in both fantasy football and betting. He'd have top-five odds for me to win OROY, at least 10% likely, so that makes him a serious bargain at +3000 (DraftKings), or +3600 at Circa if you have it. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Nate Tice called Kaleb Johnson "Honey, I shrunk Derrick Henry," and now he'll play in the zone-heavy Arthur Smith run scheme that helped Henry leap to stardom. Johnson had a monster 240/1,537/21 line on the ground at Iowa a year ago and could take many of the 263 carries Najee Harris had last season. Smith's offenses routinely rank near the top half of the league in rushing attempts so Johnson could be in for a big role once he earns the staff's trust — and this young offensive line has upside. He's a good long shot at +4000 (FanDuel) or +5500 (Circa). https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

"Bill" has had a great preseason, and it's often a good idea backing a RB playing next to a QB running threat. JCM has only seven receptions in his career, so you'll likely need a bunch of yards and a heap of short TDs, but that could be possible for a Washington offense that's invested a lot in its line. Croskey-Merritt is shooting up fantasy boards and odds alike. He's a starting RB on a good offense — that means he's worth a play in theory, but be sure to shop around. I'd sprinkle him at +3500 at BetRivers or +4000 (Circa), but probably stop before +2500. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Simmons is also extremely talented — Brandon Thorn's No. 1 rated blocker in the draft when healthy — and Simmons has looked healthy and outstanding and will step immediately into a starting left tackle role, protecting the blindside of the best player in the game. If Simmons plays well and Patrick Mahomes finally has time to throw it deep again, we're going to hear Josh Simmons talked about as an "it" rookie on every broadcast all season. It's the Chiefs, after all! Heck, we'll probably even hear the Kelces talk about Simmons on the booming "New Heights" podcast at some point, seeing as one one of them will be lining up next to him at tight end and the other one is an offensive lineman. All we need now is Taylor Swift to show up to a Kansas City game rocking a No. 71 Simmons jersey and this Love Story will be complete. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

He should get plenty of early work for the Texans with Joe Mixon (ankle) out for the first four weeks of the season, and it sure looks like Mixon could be out even longer. Chubb's obviously got his own injury history, but he is a great pure runner and a guy that has a nose for the end zone. In the five seasons he was healthy, Chubb scored at least eight rushing touchdowns in each of them, hitting 12 twice. Chubb will be running for offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who coached with the Rams under Sean McVay and previously under Patriots OC Josh McDaniels. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-props-long-shot-picks-for-nick-chubb-roschon-johnson-rj-harvey

Johnson's offense ranked top three in rushing touchdowns all three years in Detroit. One of those years, D'Andre Swift was on the team — but he only had five TDs. Jamaal Williams had 17 (2022) and led the league. Remember, I ranked the Bears offense eighth in the NFL in my offense preview column. They also have one of the best offensive lines and offensive coordinators — there will be plenty of scoring opportunities if it goes according to plan in Chicago. All the reporting out of Chicago indicates that Roschon Johnson is the goal-line guy. So 150-to-1 to lead the league? Sign me up. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-props-long-shot-picks-for-nick-chubb-roschon-johnson-rj-harvey

In his last two years at UCF, Harvey was a scoring machine, racking up 38 rushing touchdowns. Sean Payton loves to pound the rock. His teams have been top seven in rushing touchdowns in 10 of the 17 years as head coach. We've seen big double-digit TD seasons from Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Harvey also gets to run behind an offensive line widely regarded as the second best in the league, and one of the league's best defenses could set the Broncos up routinely with short fields and easy scoring chance. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-props-long-shot-picks-for-nick-chubb-roschon-johnson-rj-harvey

The Eagles were playing with a lead in almost every game, and that made them the run-heaviest team in the league in second halves. It's natural to expect Philadelphia to come back to earth a little in 2025, and that should mean more passing opportunity for Brown. Brown averages over 10 yards per target for his career and almost 16 yards per catch, insane efficiency metrics. He paced for 127 catches in 13 games last season, and he had a seven-game stretch the previous season with 120+ yards in every game and a pace for 2,355 yards. With a pass-heavier script in Philadelphia, Brown has serious potential to become the first 2,000-yard receiver in league history. He's also got an easy narrative story as potentially the sneaky-best receiver in the NFL that's been hiding behind a run-heavy offense. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Brian Thomas Jr. was electric as a rookie. His final seven-game pace was for 121 catches, 1,640 yards, and 12 touchdowns. He'd need to hit those numbers and then some to win this, but now he should get a big boost in a Liam Coen offense that helped Mike Evans and Chris Godwin put up monster numbers a year ago in Tampa Bay. The arrival of Travis Hunter could take some targets from Thomas, but Jacksonville lost a ton of receptions to Evan Engram, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, so there should plenty of balls to go around from Trevor Lawrence. Hunter's presence could also leave Thomas in more frequent single coverage. Jacksonville has a bad defense and poor run game and offensive line, so it really has to be the passing game if the Jaguars are to succeed. That could set Thomas up as this year's Ja'Marr Chase if everything clicks. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Tyreek Hill finished top four in OPOY voting two years straight before falling off the map last season. He's 31 now and we'll probably never get that Tyreek back, but I'd hate myself for passing on him at such a long number if I'm wrong. This is a bet on both Tyreek and Tua Tagovailoa staying healthy, so it's asking for a lot, but Tyreek has record-breaking talent if it's still in there somewhere. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

I will break my own rules and place a small bet on McCaffrey — because he would be my outright favorite, and I'd place his odds closer to +800 or +1000 among the favorites and don't expect +2200 to be available later. McCaffrey plays an incredibly soft schedule, and he consistently puts up elite numbers when healthy, so his OPOY season wasn't even really a significant outlier. McCaffrey is still only 29 and always pushes 2,000 scrimmage yards with his receiving abilities, and he has a great nose for the end zone and should score plenty for the 49ers. McCaffrey has finished first, third and seventh in OPOY voting, and he has a cake schedule right out of the gates. It's impossibly tough to repeat as OPOY but there's too much value at +2200 to not add him to our position while that number is there (at Caesars). https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Williams posted 4.5 or 5.0 sacks all three seasons as part of Georgia's rotation — just 14 total in three seasons — though he did add 23 tackles for losses. Those aren't overwhelming flash stats, but they're close enough to get a look as he moves into more of a feature role in the pros, especially since he can also slide inside and rush over the tackle. That could keep him on the field for all three downs. Don't underestimate the coaching either. Saleh has great defensive chops, and Williams should also benefit from playing for legendary San Francisco defensive line coach Kris Kocurek, who repeatedly coaxes big seasons out of his linemen. Maybe Williams will be his next success story. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

He led the Big Ten with 90 tackles last year and also added four sacks and two interceptions. Cleveland is suddenly lacking linebacker options so Schwesinger should be a day one starter. Maybe he puts up numbers similar to what Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah did two years ago for Jim Schwartz, 101 combined tackles with two picks and 3.5 sacks. Schwesinger had a top-50 athleticism score among over 3,200 linebacker prospects since 1987, so he's elite at everything and can certainly make some big plays. Schwesinger has had great reviews in the preseason and even had six tackles in 13 snaps one game. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Jackson has never lost more than five games in a season and he's proven he has the advanced metrics in addition to the ever-present flash and stats; his abilities as a runner also seem to scramble voters' brains so that even a potential dip in passing stats may not matter. Likewise his ongoing fumbling problem, when only interceptions seem to count front of mind. There's also a very easy Jackson narrative. True, he's yet to make that big playoff run, but there's also ubiquitous sentiment that Jackson was "robbed" of this award last year. That's a column for another day, but if Jackson and the Ravens lap the field again, voters will make no mistake about it this time around. At the end of the day — and I can't believe I of all people am writing this — Jackson might simply be the age-old MVP formula: the best player on the best team in the regular season. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-mvp-predictions-odds-qs

Purdy was in the mix two years ago before injuries derailed San Francisco's season, but he may have actually earned a modicum of respect with his play last season. With lesser weapons and less help around him, Purdy might actually get some credit. The numbers and advanced metrics will be there in a Kyle Shanahan system — Purdy led the league in both EPA and EPA + CPOE in 2023, and he's over a 5% TD rate and almost 9.0 yards per attempt for his career. There's also an obvious narrative in play for a guy who was Mr. Irrelevant as the last pick in the draft. Did Purdy take another leap? Is he a top-10 QB now? https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-mvp-predictions-odds-qs

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Boost available today only at DK. The Bears have famously never had a 4000 yard passer, but Jared Goff averaged 4550 his 3 years with Ben Johnson and was never below 4438. If Caleb plays 17, this is a really bad number.

🐻🏝️ For 3 quarters, it was all so beautiful. Caleb Williams led Chicago to an opening drive touchdown, something it didn't do all last season, and the Bears were rolling early. Williams showed vastly improved pocket presence and scrambling ability and got the ball to his playmakers quickly. Chicago moved the ball early and repeatedly got into field goal position, even confident and in control enough to go aggressively on a couple fourth downs. The Bears added a pick-6 and led 17-6 into the fourth quarter in front of a rocking home crowd — and then it all went sideways. Chicago played without LB T.J. Edwards and both its top corners, and when another corner went down mid-game, the seams busted open. The Bears offense disappeared badly late, Caleb Williams couldn't hit a throw, and suddenly everything was awful, and all too familiar. The advanced metrics for Williams weren't pretty. He finished with a 29% off-target rate, -8 completion percentage over expected, and a 46% accurate-throw rate, all bottom four in the NFL, and he airmailed several key throws. Williams finished with five overthrows on the night, and now has 52 since the start of last season, a full 17 more than anyone else in the league, almost 50% higher! I'm not sure this was on Ben Johnson. Johnson's head coaching debut left something to be desired. His challenge was poor, and his decision to kick deep was questionable at best. Chicago also had 12 penalties for 127 yards — some questionable, but that's on coaching too. But Johnson called a brilliant opening drive to get Williams comfortable and in the end zone early, and he consistently schemed receivers open. Williams was just missing them. Ben Johnson is not a fraud. He's an outstanding play caller, and we have three years of data to prove that. The Bears were up 7% playaction rate compared to last season and up 12% in pre-snap motion; the Lions without Johnson dropped by 13 and 23%, respectively. The jury is still out on Williams. He showed clear improvement Monday night — his pocket presence and scrambling stood out, and he played more within himself and made fewer mistakes — but his accuracy leaves plenty to be desired, and there's a lot to fix. That's not great news, but it's not death either. Remember, last year was basically a lost season for Williams and the Bears. That means Monday was effectively a debut, and that was a pretty solid debut for both QBs from that perspective. FTN still gives Chicago 31% to make the playoffs, showing value at +270 (Caesars), and even gives the Bears a surprising 15% chance at the division, leaving clear value at +1300 (Caesars), an implied percentage under half that (7%). Bear down? How about double down? Bears Island ain't sunk yet, and it's a great spot to invest with Ben Johnson's former team up next.

For most of Sunday night, I spent the evening cackling at my screen. How could you not? Lamar Jackson danced around the screen, firing lasers to a wide-open-again Zay Flowers and turning 30-yard sacks into 19-yard scampers. When he got tired, Baltimore handed it off to Derrick Henry, who trucked a few defenders and burst down the sidelines for another long run. Somewhere in between, we remembered DeAndre Hopkins was on this team when he snagged a one-handed score. Flowers had a career-high 143 yards. Henry had 169 yards and two scores. Jackson had a 98th percentile 0.69 EPA per play on over 11 YPA. The Ravens posted a 0.39 EPA per play on the night, 98th percentile and over 50% ahead of the Bills, while averaging 8.6 yards per play. And then, like it has so many times before, it all came crashing down. Henry fumbled, the secondary couldn't stop a nosebleed, the offense disappeared late and the Ravens choked, losing by a score of 41-40. The Ravens had around a 99% probability of winning with under five minutes left; now they're 0-1. It's the eighth loss since 2021 for Baltimore when it hit a win probability of at least 90%, five more than any other team. Baltimore just keeps blowing these games somehow. And at some point, that has to be a pattern… right? It is a pattern — but maybe not the one you think. The pattern is that Baltimore keeps blowing quality and even great opponents out of the water and getting to 90 and even 99% win probability. That means more chances to blow an occasional lead late, so that part is happening too because hey, the ball is oblong and football is hard. But what Sunday night told us most meaningfully with 21 weeks of football to go is that Baltimore is the best team in football — by far. The Bills are No. 2 in my power ratings matrix, a loaded roster led by the reigning MVP, and the Ravens treated them like a plaything for 55 minutes. Baltimore looked like it could score anytime it wanted. The Ravens were embarrassing the Bills, in their own home. I have the Ravens almost four full points to the spread ahead of the Bills — as far ahead of Buffalo as the Bills are ahead of the Steelers and Seahawks. It's Baltimore and everyone else. That doesn't mean the Ravens are perfect. The defense allowed seven trips to the red zone, and the veteran secondary disappointed. Baltimore consistently gets overly conservative calling plays, especially holding a late lead. The Ravens had a 48% neutral pass rate, ahead of only the Jets. That's unacceptable when your QB is a two-time MVP averaging a first down per throw. But Sunday night should make us more confident in the Ravens, not less. It's not possible to give Baltimore a bigger test than it got Sunday night — on the road, in primetime, against the best non-Ravens team in the league — and Baltimore completely aced the test for 55 minutes before sports happened. The Ravens were so good Sunday that their Super Bowl odds barely changed at books, despite the loss. Their odds actually went up at FTN. That means it's time to invest in Baltimore stock in a rare buy-low spot — possibly our last. FTN projects Baltimore to go 12.1-3.9 the rest of the way. The Ravens are still projected with the second-best record in the NFL, 0.3 wins behind Buffalo, with a 93% chance of making the playoffs, a 75% shot of winning the AFC North, and over 50% at a top-2 seed. Pick your favorite bet or take the whole escalator. There's clear value on the division at -135 (FanDuel), implied 57%, especially with a get-right Browns game up next. There's also value on a Ravens 1-seed (+550, BetMGM), and especially on most wins (+900, DraftKings), since the Ravens can split that one even with a Buffalo tie. Sunday didn't show us Baltimore is a fraud. It showed us the Ravens are the best team in football, by far — and simultaneously gave us a chance to invest.