The line on this game makes zero sense. The Packers are road favorites?! Green Bay's market rating hasn't caught up to how poorly the Packers have played down the stretch, losing four straight as they enter the playoffs. The Packers ranked 9th in DVOA defensively over the first half of the season, but they're down to 24th over the last six weeks and fading hard, first against the pass and now against the run too. The rushing offense has also fallen off hard with the line struggling. The Bears aren't a good defense, but they're closer to league average over the back stretch of the season after returning a number of healthy bodies, and that makes this unit much better than Green Bay's. Chicago is the better defense and offense right now, and the Packers were just 2-4 against playoff teams this season. Green Bay has also been far worse on the road defensively, bottom 10 on the season. Chicago has too, for that matter, ranked 30th on the road versus top half of the league at home, but this game is in Chicago — yet another advantage for the Bears. I make the Bears better than a field goal favorite at home, and that led me to grab Bears -104 on the moneyline on Sunday night. But the line has held tight and may even be creeping the other direction. And after digging more into the matchup all week, I'm starting to see why. The Packers rank top five in explosive plays on both offense and defense; the Bears rank bottom 10 defensively there, meaning Chicago's defense could hold up play after play all game, falter two or three times, and blow it anyway. Green Bay ranks top three in EPA on playaction passes; the Bears defense is bottom 10. The Packers are top five attacking the middle of the field; Bears bottom 10 again. Ditto defending 11 personnel, where Green Bay ranks No. 1. The Packers are built specifically to attack Chicago's biggest weaknesses, even if they'll do so slowly and methodically with a run-heavy script that should work against a bottom 10 run defense. Green Bay's defense could also find some answers. It ranks top 10 on just first downs, especially against the pass, and first downs are where Chicago has thrived all season at No. 2 in DVOA, falling to average on any other down. If the Packers force Caleb Williams to play in 2nd-and-long instead of 2nd-and-3 all game, that will be a huge swing. The Packers run defense isn't good, but it's much worse against inside runs; the Bears rushing attack has been great but is better outside. Chicago has shredded blitzes this season, but Green Bay blitzes among the least in football. Green Bay also got to rest last week, while Chicago played all game and pushed. Those trends warning us against the inexperience of Carolina and Bryce Young also warn us against Chicago and Caleb Williams, and they like the road team in division rematches in the playoffs too. I still have to bet the Bears since my numbers are so strong, and it's worth remembering that 7-seeds are just 1-10 SU since being added to the postseason picture, losing by 10 PPG. Still, it's Packers-Bears. Green bay has won 27 of the last 32 meetings and 12 of the last 14, and it dominated seven of eight quarters this season too, even with Jordan Love hurt for some of them. The last time the Bears beat the Packers in the playoffs was — are you ready for this? — the Sunday after the attack on Pearl Harbor! I'm not buying out of my Bears pick, but the matchup stuff has at least pushed me away from investing further. Instead, I'm looking to invest in unders. On a wintery Saturday in Chicago with possible winds and snow in freezing temperatures, it's a reminder that windy games have gone under 61% of the time the last five seasons. Both teams want to run the ball a ton, and that should shorten the clock. That's typically Green Bay's m.o. too, playing the underdog script. Home teams coming off a home loss are 10-0-1 to the under since 2016 in the playoffs. I'm specifically looking to play first-half unders, though. The Packers were 12-5 to the first-half under this season, while Chicago was 11-6, a combined 68% hit rate. But both teams were 12-5 to the over in the second half. Why is that? Chicago's offense has been far better late in games, 20th by DVOA in the first half versus top five after halftime, including No. 2 in the final quarter. Ben Johnson has been a wizard at halftime adjustments. Chicago's defense has also been at its best by far in just the first quarter, No. 6 by DVOA there versus bottom 10 every other quarter. Green Bay trends a similar direction offensively. The Packers are a league-average offense in the first quarter but rank top five every quarter after that. Matt LaFleur's offense can start maddeningly slow, easing into the waters before ramping things up late. In the two games we saw these teams play already this season, there were just six and 17 points at the half — but 26 and 32 in the second halves. In fact, both games were 0-to-0 at the end of the first quarter, slowly easing things in. I'm betting the first half under 22.5 (-104, BetRivers), and I'll build a little mineshaft along the way. Play just the first quarter under 9.5 too at -115 (Fanatics) and sprinkle a scoreless first quarter at +575 (bet365). In case a slow start does pair with a flurry of a finish yet again, you can also play a negatively correlated SGP using alt lines: first-half under 17.5 and second-half over 20.5 at +537 (FanDuel). Every one of those bets hit in both Packers-Bears games already this season. Let's hope they make them all 3-for-3.

This is the game I'm most excited for this weekend. I think it could be the AFC kingmaker. The Jaguars, not the Texans, are the hottest team in the league. Houston's winning streak is one game longer (nine versus eight), but Jacksonville rates as the much better team over the second half of the season. The Jaguars are No. 3 in DVOA with a top 10 offense, including top 5 passing, and the defense is even better — top five against both the run and the pass, and No. 3 overall. Buffalo is not hot at all, quite literally limping into the playoffs thanks to Josh Allen's foot injury. The Bills have no real receivers for Allen to throw to, and the defense is a big problem, fringe bottom 10 on the season. But Buffalo still has all that playoff experience and, of course, that super alien QB that can swing the entire playoffs if he gets hot. Buffalo's defense is the weak link on the field, especially the run defense. The question is whether Jacksonville's offense can take advantage of Buffalo's specific weaknesses. That's on Liam Coen's staff, and that young coaching staff has been brilliant and finding answers all season. Buffalo ranks bottom 10 against motion and under center plays by EPA, and Jacksonville ranks top 10 at both. The Jags are also up from bottom 10 in explosive plays offensively to top 10 over the back half of the season, while Buffalo's defense ranks bottom 10. Coen can expose Sean McDermott's defense, like many other teams have in past postseasons. But can the Jaguars run the ball? Jacksonville ranked top five in EPA per rush for the first half of the season as Coen worked his magic, just like he did in Tampa Bay last season, but that rushing attack has totally disappeared down the stretch to finish below league average. Buffalo ranks among the bottom three teams in the NFL in rushing defense by DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Coen needs to find ways to get Travis Etienne involved. The run game looks like the key both ways. Jacksonville's run defense has been awesome all season, yet to allow a single 75-yard runner. The defense has been far better against outside runs though, and Buffalo's run game is a power rushing attack and much better attacking on inside runs, ranking 2nd in EPA per play. If Buffalo can control the game by running through the middle and limiting Jacksonville's rushing attack, the Bills will win. But the truth is that the Jaguars have been the far better team over the back half of the season — definitely on defense and special teams, probably even on offense too. Buffalo is also mostly untested. The Bills have faced only one top-10 DVOA opponent all season, and that was Houston. This is probably Buffalo's toughest game all season. The Bills went only 1-3 against teams that entered last weekend with a playoff berth wrapped up, and they scored 12, 20, and 19 in three of those games and seven in the first half against the Patriots before finally playing one good half for their only marquee win of the season. These are not the Bills of the last few years. And even those Bills have struggled on the road for awhile now. Buffalo's offense was elite at home (2nd in DVOA) but closer to league average on the road (13th) this season, and Buffalo is just 14-12 SU on the road since 2023, despite being a clear Super Bowl contender all three seasons. Those aren't exactly marquee wins either. They've come against Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers (twice), Tua Tagovailoa (twice), Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, Sam Howell, Easton Stick, and Shedeur Sanders. In fact, Josh Allen remains winless on the road in the postseason. He's 0-4 both straight up and ATS, and Buffalo has not won a road playoff game since 1993. The Jaguars have been awesome at home this season. Jacksonville ranked bottom 10 offensively on the road and league average on defense by DVOA but was a top-five home defense and fringe top-10 offense. The more I dug into things here, the more I liked Jacksonville — just so many coaching advantages and edges for the Jaguars — but I don't love betting coin flip spreads, especially in the playoffs, and especially against Josh Allen. We don't win any extra money for picking against Allen, you know. Instead, I'm going to get try to get my money by halftime and get out. The Jaguars are 11-6 ATS in the first half this season, second best in the NFL. The Bills were 5-12 ATS, tied for worst in the league with the lowly Saints, who did not win a single first quarter all season. Many of Jacksonville's metrics tell a similar story. The Jaguars offense is worse in the red zone, and it's also worse late in games. Coen sets the team up for success early, but Jacksonville's edge shrinks when it's just down to the talent on the field. The Jaguars have a top-five offense in the first quarter by DVOA but fall to bottom-five in the final quarter. Buffalo's first-half metrics have been terrible all season, especially in defense, but the Bills leap to top 10 by DVOA there after halftime. Let's lock in our best bet: Jaguars 1H +0.5 (-115, Caesars), preferable to a similarly priced moneyline since we can win a halftime tie. If you do like Jacksonville to win the game too, I think you have to be aggressive. I can see a world where the Jaguars are just the much better team and house the Bills, so maybe alts are in play. But if Jacksonville does win the battle of my top two AFC power rating teams, then they're a good investment to keep winning. I'll like Jacksonville in New England next week in a battle of team versus individual, and if that's not the matchup, then the Jags are at home again as the better team. I think Jacksonville has the right mix to make a surprise run all the way to the Super Bowl. I've got the Jags just under 20% to win the AFC, showing clear value on Jacksonville at +600 to win the AFC. I probably won't like the Jags in the Super Bowl so I'll bet that AFC ticket and then nibble a little on an exact Super Bowl outcome: Rams over Jaguars at +4000 (bet365). If you want a fun prop angle in this game, I like Josh Allen to lead the game in rushing yards at +950 (FanDuel). Allen averages 51.4 YPG in the playoffs on the ground, with 54 or more in over half his games. Jacksonville hasn't allowed a 75-yard runner and should limit James Cook some, and Etienne is unpredictable and often needs a long run to hit a high total. He averages just 55 YPG on the ground over the last 12 games. If Allen can push through the foot injury and give us some of us usual magic, that +950 could be juicy.

I am officially putting the Broncos on fraud watch. We're thinking about this team all wrong. I keep seeing Denver grouped in with Seattle and Houston as a defense-only juggernaut and that's just now what this team has been at all for half a season. Since Week 11 (all stats excluding Week 18), the Broncos are better offensively than you're probably giving them credit for — and way, WAY worse defensively. The offense ranks 7th by DVOA during that stretch and could be a saving grace, but the defense has plummeted all the way to 18th, and it has the same rating in games against teams in the top half of the league over the full season. In the first nine weeks this season, Denver ranked top-six against both the run and the pass; over the final nine weeks, the Broncos finished outside the top-12 at both. Those patterns continued even once the overrated Patrick Surtain returned healthy to the lineup, and it's not a new pattern either. Last season this same defense dropped to 14th in DVOA over the exact same stretch to close the season. The defense has also fallen off mightily against top-12 offenses, allowing almost 28 PPG in those matchups. Denver is the 1-seed, but the Broncos trailed in all but two wins this season and got a flurry of one-score victories. Flip those usually coin-flip outcomes and Denver goes 5-12 this year, bottom of the AFC. Bo Nix is 1-8 in his career against winning teams that score over 17 points. Sean Payton has lost four of his last five playoff games, three as a home favorite, with the only win over an 8-8 Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky squad. The Broncos are not your typical 1-seed. Over the past two seasons, Denver has played eight games against teams that finished top 10 by DVOA. The Broncos went 1-7 in those games with an awful -83 point differential. We've been waiting all season for an opportunity to fade this team in this spot as an overrated 1-seed — the question is whether Buffalo is the right team to ride with. The Bills are a great offense and rank 8th by DVOA so they fit those trends above, but Buffalo has struggled on the road for years and comes in with a slew of injuries, though the potential return of Ed Oliver and Curtis Samuel should help. Josh Allen comes in banged up too, but this is the game Buffalo has rebuilt itself for. It will be a tough matchup for Allen against a ferocious pass rush and tough secondary, especially with so few receivers, but the Bills are not a one-man team anymore. Buffalo is at its best when it leans into its power run game, and the Bills can control the clock and attack the heart of this Denver defense that way. The Broncos funnel opponent runners inside but rank 22nd by EPA per play there compared to 2nd on outside runs. That's typically a winning strategy since outside runs can be more dangerous and explosive. But that feeds right into what Buffalo wants to do with James Cook and one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Bills are below league average running outside but rank 2nd on inside runs. Cook and Allen should be in for big games, and don't forget about Buffalo's valuable tush push with Allen in short yardage situations. Denver faced only one opponent all season in the top quarter of the league in rushing, and Jonathan Taylor ran 25 times for 165 yards in a Colts win. And the Bills aren't just a good rushing team — they rank 2nd in DVOA and have the league's leading rusher in Cook. There's reason to believe Buffalo's defense can hang too. The Bills rank top five on the season in EPA per play defending 11 personnel but fall apart against 12 or 21, but Denver doesn't have the RB or TE depth to attack from diverse personnel. Instead, the Broncos feature a ton of short passing, but Buffalo ranks top five against short passes by EPA. You beat the Bills defense by running the ball, and that's not Denver's strength, nor their m.o. The Broncos are actually one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league. We just saw these teams play in last year's playoffs, and it was ugly for Denver. The Broncos hit an early bomb, then gave up 31 straight points. Buffalo finished in the 95th percentile or better EPA and Success Rate, doubling up Denver in first downs and more than doubling them in yardage. The Bills ran 31 more plays with 42 minutes of possession as Cook ran for 120 yards and a score. That's the exact script for these Bills, and it's a version of the team that frankly didn't exist a couple years ago. Historic trends tell us to fade favorites in the Divisional Round, with bettors too focused on past record and not enough on what a team has become. Favorites that won over 75% of their regular season games are just 18-35 ATS this round (34%) over the past two decades, and 1-seeds after a bye are just 15-19-1 ATS (34%), including an ugly 3-10 ATS and 6-7 SU as six-point favorites or worse like Denver. And after all that, we haven't even talked about the biggest mismatch of the weekend — Josh Allen versus Bo Nix. Allen is the best QB in the playoffs, maybe in football, and Nix is the worst quarterback left in the postseason. Allen can handle the Denver pass rush and add value in the run game, while Nix has yet to prove his mettle in big games and is far worse against zone in his career. He could struggle with Sean McDermott's coverages, especially when McDermott disguises things to confuse Nix. When Allen is anything under a field goal favorite in his career, he's 34-19-2 ATS, covering 64% of the time. When Allen faces a defense that allows 20 PPG or less, he's even better at 29-10-1 ATS. That's just ahead of Tom Brady among all players over the last two decades. Translation: elite quarterbacks are going to find a way to score some points, even against your great defense, because elite quarterback equals elite offense, and elite offense beats elite defense. Ready for one last killer trend? Just combine those two. When Josh Allen is under a field goal favorite facing a defense that allows 10 PPG or less, he's a ridiculous 19-3-1 ATS in his career. That's an insane 86% cover rate, and Allen has won 14 of his last 16 such games outright — all but those two memorable Chiefs playoff losses. That trend will apply next round too, by the way, and would against Seattle in a Super Bowl too. I'm ready to buy Allen and Buffalo stock. Start with the Bills moneyline at -102 (FanDuel) to get the win, but we're not stopping there. The Bills have scored at least 24 points in nine of Allen's last 10 playoff games, so over 23.5 is a no brainer at +100 (DraftKings) against this overrated Denver defense. Buffalo averages 29.6 PPG in those games, so play 27+ points too at +200 (DraftKings), a number Allen's Bills have hit eight of the last 10 playoff games. With the Seattle and New England games both expected to be lower-scoring, Buffalo could end up with the highest score of the weekend. Bet them at +800 to do so (FanDuel) and hope the Chicago weather dampens the Rams-Bears game to give us a shot. Buffalo has won eight of its 13 games this season by at least a touchdown and over half of their wins are by double digits, including wins by 19, 20, 27, and 31. If we expect the Bills to score and think Denver might struggle to do so, this could get ugly. Last year in this spot, we smashed Bills alts at -7.5, all the way to -23.5 at +520, so let's run it back and go for the double. If the Bills do win, they may win by margin. Bet Bills -5.5 at +225 and Bills -9.5 at +450, and sprinkle a bit on Buffalo -16.5 at +900 too in case this really gets away from Denver (all FanDuel). Is it finally Buffalo's time? It is on Saturday.

For the entire back half of the season, I've had the Seahawks and Rams far ahead of the rest of the field in my power ratings. I have both teams more than a field goal ahead of any other team on a neutral field, and I like both in their matchups this weekend against outmatched, banged-up defenses. That sets up a Seattle-LA NFC Championship, and if we get that, it guarantees one of those two teams will play in the Super Bowl — as the clear favorite against any AFC opponent. It's never too late to play a futures bet. I bet a Seahawks-Rams ML parlay on Sunday night on the Hot Read, but we can take this a step further. Build a weekend moneyline parlay of Seahawks and Rams, then add "NFC participant to win Super Bowl" for a juicy +220 parlay at Caesars that's badly mispriced in a clearly correlated outcome.

Defenders can and do win Super Bowl MVP — and a lot more often than you'd think! We've seen 10 defensive players win MVP. Two of them won it as co-MVPs, but even so, that's nine defensive MVPs in 59 Super Bowls or 15.3%. That's more than once every seven Super Bowls! In fact, would you believe more defenders have won Super Bowl MVP than receivers or running backs? That fact might encourage you to sprinkle on one of the game's defensive stars as an unlikely MVP pick. Again, it can be wise to just keep things simple. There are 11 defensive starters on each team and a plethora of other defenders that will also see the field in relief. We can bet any defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP at +1500 at theScore. That's 6.3% implied, giving us over 2.4x value on the historical odds of a defensive MVP. Of course, we're greedy and want the exacta winner too, so let's sprinkle three long-shot names. And it doesn't necessarily need to be the best defenders on the field. Seattle fans, do you recall the Super Bowl MVP of your last title? Not many remember LB Malcolm Smith, who won it in 2014. Dexter Jackson and Larry Brown are other relatively anonymous defenders who made a big play when it mattered most and stole MVP. Christian Gonzalez is a lock-down corner for New England, and Leonard Williams is a force up the middle for Seattle, but those guys don't necessarily make splash plays. We're looking for big, game-changing plays — sacks, turnovers, even a touchdown. Let's take a stab at three long-shot defensive MVPs. Start with New England's Marcus Jones (+15000 at BetRivers). He's the third corner but that makes him more of a target, and that means opportunity. Jones has four interceptions this season and returned two of them for scores. He's also an electric punt returner and has two scores that way. Next up is Seattle's DeMarcus Lawrence (+15000 at BetMGM), who had six regular season sacks and added one in each of Seattle's playoff games so far, along with three forced fumbles. He's got a juicy matchup against rookie LT Will Campbell, who has struggled mightily in these playoffs. Lawrence has four career touchdowns, including a league-leading two off fumbles this season. Last, let's add Ernest Jones (+20000 at theScore). Three of the four defensive MVPs this century have been linebackers, right in the middle of all the action, and Jones led Seattle in both interceptions (five) and combined tackles (30 more than anyone else). He plays nearly every snap and should rack up tackles and opportunities, and he'll be in great position to jump a rushed Drake Maye checkdown. Defense wins championships. And in the Super Bowl, defense turns profits for bettors too. Place your bets and wait for the big play.

Smith-Njigba's receptions line of 6.5 is badly mispriced and worth a play, even juiced to -139 (DraftKings). It's probably a full reception too low since he has 8+ catches in 10-of-13 non-blowout games. The alternate line of 8+ catches is worth a play at +130 (Fanatics). But what if Smith-Njigba has an even bigger game? He's racked up 123+ receiving yards seven times this season and has seven games with exactly eight catches and a few others with nine or 10. You could play an alternate yardage line like 120 yards for +210, but is that really worth it? If he really does rack up eight catches for 120+ yards, we should be dreaming about a much bigger target: Super Bowl MVP. I already bet Smith-Njigba for Super Bowl MVP twice — once right before the playoffs started at +2800, then again at +1500 heading into the NFC Championship Game. And I'm ready to triple down. Like most NFL awards, quarterback is the default for Super Bowl MVP. The award has gone to a QB 34 times (58%), including 14 of the last 19 Super Bowls (74%). If the Patriots win, Drake Maye is rightfully a heavy favorite to win MVP. But could Smith-Njigba steal it from Darnold in a Seahawks win? Remember, Smith-Njigba is typically responsible for almost half of Darnold's production. What's more impressive — 260 yards and two scores as a passer, or 8/130 and a TD as a receiver? Take a look at the receivers who won Super Bowl MVP over the last couple decades: 2005 Deion Branch: 11 receptions, 143 yards 2009 Santonio Holmes: 9 receptions, 141 yards, 1 TD 2019 Julian Edelman: 10 receptions, 141 yards 2022 Cooper Kupp: 8 receptions, 92 yards, 2 TDs These aren't guys putting up huge touchdown numbers. These are workhorse receivers seeing the ball all game, catching 8-to-10 passes and moving the chains drive after drive, piling up big yardage along the way. The average line for those four Super Bowl MVPs is 9.5 catches for 129 yards, even though they also combined for under one touchdown a game. Isn't that line an exact bullseye for a typical big Smith-Njigba game? It's also worth mentioning that no running back has won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis last century, and that these defenses rank top four in fewest touchdowns and fantasy points allowed to RBs. This is a passing game, and no one gets a bigger piece of the passing pie than Smith-Njigba. He is consensus +550 to win Super Bowl MVP, implied 15.4%. We know MVP will go to someone from the winning team, and Seattle moneyline is priced around -225, implied 69.2%. If you do the math, that means Smith-Njigba would need to win MVP in about 22% of all Seahawks wins for that bet to have value. If you go through the Seahawks' schedule this season game-by-game, Smith-Njigba would've won MVP at least three times, maybe four or five. That means he would've been MVP in at least 19% of Seahawks wins this season, and maybe 25 or 31%. Combine that with the matchup advantages and there's still value on Smith-Njigba to win MVP — but we can get even better bang for our buck. At FanDuel, you can bet on him to record 100+ receiving yards and win Super Bowl MVP (a prepared parlay under Super Bowl Game Specials) at +850. We should not be getting an extra three bucks on our +550 MVP ticket for just 100 receiving yards — that's almost Smith-Njigba's receiving line! He's had 90+ yards in 14-of-19 games (74%), and if he goes under that line, the odds of him winning MVP are perilously low. If he did still steal MVP, maybe it's by finding the end zone multiple times — you're welcome to nibble JSN to score 2+ TDs and win MVP at +2500 (FanDuel) to cover yourself, just in case. Either way, it's time to invest in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Bet JSN to catch at least seven or eight passes on Sunday night, and bet him to top 100 yards and win Super Bowl MVP at +850.

Simple life hack: if @JoeDellera gives you an NBA pick, you bet it.