Brandon Anderson

NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣

Initially, I wanted to bet the Bengals here. Joe Burrow is a remarkable 18-3 ATS (86%) in his career as an underdog of three or more points in the regular or postseason, winning nine of the last 14 such games outright — including just last week. But this might be the game that finally gets the Bengals coaching staff fired. Cincinnati's offense just doesn't optimize itself, and that could be a death blow against a Buffalo defense that's gettable, but only if you attack its weaknesses. Buffalo is bad against motion and playaction, but the Bengals rarely attack that way. Cincinnati loves to play out of 11 personnel, second most of any team, but the Bills rank top-five in EPA per play against base. Buffalo prefers to play a lot of two-high safety looks and rank top-three in EPA defending that way; Cincinnati faces two-high looks more than any team and ranks 30th in EPA against it. The Bengals simply aren't getting to any easy buttons with this offense and making things simpler. Buffalo also ranks top five in pressure rate while Cincinnati has struggled all year against pressure. You beat the Bills by running on them, and Cincinnati is a pretty good running team! But the Bengals don't often commit to the run game enough, stubbornly dropping Joe Burrow back out of the shotgun and letting him chuck it all game. The truth is that both run defenses in this game are awful, as bad as anyone in football outside of the Giants. But only one of these offenses commits to the run. Just look at the Bills against the Steelers last week. Josh Allen was under two yards ADOT for the game and got the ball out quickly when they threw it, instead leading James Cook pound the rock all night. With Buffalo's offensive line banged up, running the ball is actually a way to protect the line since it's easier to run block. Allen doesn't have to be the MVP if Cook just does all the dirty work for him. The Bills are 6-0 this season when Cook has 19 or more carries; they're just 2-4 when he doesn't, with both wins coming in wild shootouts. When Cook does have 19+ carries, he averages 23.3 rushes for 144 yards, with at least 108 yards in every game and six TDs in all. Both offenses should want to grind out long, sustained drives to keep the dangerous opposing QB on the sidelines, but only Buffalo really commits to doing that. The Bengals have allowed 14+ carries to a runner 10 times. They've allowed six RBs to run for 93+ yards and three to hit 125 or more. Only one RB had over 18 carries, but that was a breakout game for Kyle Monangai with 26/176, and Buffalo funnels its touches through Cook. A big James Cook game here should proxy as a Bills win. Just look at his numbers in three of the last four Buffalo wins: 32/144 last week against Pittsburgh, 27/114 against the Chiefs in a similar script to this one, and 19/216 against Carolina with two TDs. We're taking the Cook escalator all the way up. Start with over 95.5 rushing yards (Fanatics). The Bengals allow 153 YPG on the ground. And rather than play over 19.5 rushing attempts, let's just assume if Cook gets those 20+ carries that he'll also be productive. It's the terrible Bengals defense, after all, and Cook averages 23/144 with 19+ carries! Play 120+ yards at +235 along with 140+ yards at +475 (bet365), and let's also touch 28+ rushing attempts at +1360 (DraftKings) since he's had 27 and 32 rushes in Buffalo's last two wins. I'm also playing Cook at +300 (BetRivers) to take the rushing crown. He's only 54 yards behind Jonathan Taylor, who has a brutal closing schedule, and Cook may very well have the lead after Sunday if he has a big game against the Bengals.

I'm looking at Ben Johnson and what do Ben Johnson's offenses do? They run the ball into the end zone. Look no further than what David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have been up to the last few years. That duo has combined for an absurd 41 touchdowns over the last two seasons. Johnson's offense ranked top three in rushing touchdowns all three years in Detroit. One of those years, D'Andre Swift was on the team — but he only had five TDs. Jamaal Williams had 17 (2022) and led the league. All the reporting out of Chicago indicates that Roschon Johnson is the goal-line guy. Give me all the vulture TDs. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-props-long-shot-picks-for-nick-chubb-roschon-johnson-rj-harvey

It's-So-Over-We-Are-So-Back division parlay https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-9-parlay-predictions

It's-So-Over-We-Are-So-Back division parlay https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-9-parlay-predictions

It's-So-Over-We-Are-So-Back division parlay https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-9-parlay-predictions

This one looks fun and high scoring, so I'm ready to invest. The Bengals defense ranks dead last by DVOA and has been especially bad defending the run, and Pittsburgh's pass defense just got shredded a month ago when these teams met. Ja'Marr Chase was the main culprit with a monster game: 16 catches for 161 yards on 23 targets. He's been on a torrid pace, with 91+ yards in five straight games and a pace of 170/1938 over that stretch. Chase is only 210 yards behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Bengals will be passing all season with their awful defense and inviting schedule, so I'm buying in on Chase to lead the league in receiving yards at +550 (ESPN Bet). Unfortunately, if we want to bet Chase this week, we'll have to pay through the nose — something in the range of nine catches or almost 100 yards at even money. That's a tough sell especially in a windy game, and rather than turning to more aggressive alts, I'll pivot to his teammate. Tee Higgins has also been great playing with Joe Flacco, averaging 4.8 catches for 81 yards and a score in four games, and he was good in that game against Pittsburgh too with six catches for 96 yards and a TD. We all know how good Chase was against Pittsburgh last time. That means the Steelers do too, so maybe their extra attention toward him will leave Higgins open for some big ones. Play Higgins 80+ receiving yards at +230 and 100+ yards at +500 (bet365) at bargain prices, balancing out those high Chase lines. On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh should be able to run plenty on Cincinnati. The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to opposing RBs on the season, along with the most rushing attempts and yards. The last six bell cow RB1s against Cincinnati have averaged 18.3 carries for 124 yards, with Jaylen Warren one of those guys and right at those averages at 16 carries for 127 yards against the Bengals. That was his best game of the season, but it was also his only game over 71.5 yards, his posted rushing line. Skip the median outcome and play the alts in case the big game repeats itself: 100 yards at +310 and 120+ at +700 (bet365). If you're thinking Anytime TD too for Warren, that makes sense — the Bengals have allowed at least one RB touchdown in all but one game this season. But with Warren priced at -150 for a score and having scored in only two of eight games this season, that's just too steep. Instead, like with Chase and Higgins, we'll pivot to a secondary option. Kenneth Gainwell has six carries this season inside the 10 yard line, scoring a TD on three of them. He's more of the receiving back but is still playing over a third of the snaps, and he can always catch a score to cash our bet too. Gainwell is an excellent pivot from Warren at +470 for an Anytime TD (FanDuel), and with two TDs priced at +7500 at bet365, we'd be crazy not to sprinkle.

Week 11 Extra Point: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-parlay-week-11-moneyline-predictions-picks

For most of Sunday night, I spent the evening cackling at my screen. How could you not? Lamar Jackson danced around the screen, firing lasers to a wide-open-again Zay Flowers and turning 30-yard sacks into 19-yard scampers. When he got tired, Baltimore handed it off to Derrick Henry, who trucked a few defenders and burst down the sidelines for another long run. Somewhere in between, we remembered DeAndre Hopkins was on this team when he snagged a one-handed score. Flowers had a career-high 143 yards. Henry had 169 yards and two scores. Jackson had a 98th percentile 0.69 EPA per play on over 11 YPA. The Ravens posted a 0.39 EPA per play on the night, 98th percentile and over 50% ahead of the Bills, while averaging 8.6 yards per play. And then, like it has so many times before, it all came crashing down. Henry fumbled, the secondary couldn't stop a nosebleed, the offense disappeared late and the Ravens choked, losing by a score of 41-40. The Ravens had around a 99% probability of winning with under five minutes left; now they're 0-1. It's the eighth loss since 2021 for Baltimore when it hit a win probability of at least 90%, five more than any other team. Baltimore just keeps blowing these games somehow. And at some point, that has to be a pattern… right? It is a pattern — but maybe not the one you think. The pattern is that Baltimore keeps blowing quality and even great opponents out of the water and getting to 90 and even 99% win probability. That means more chances to blow an occasional lead late, so that part is happening too because hey, the ball is oblong and football is hard. But what Sunday night told us most meaningfully with 21 weeks of football to go is that Baltimore is the best team in football — by far. The Bills are No. 2 in my power ratings matrix, a loaded roster led by the reigning MVP, and the Ravens treated them like a plaything for 55 minutes. Baltimore looked like it could score anytime it wanted. The Ravens were embarrassing the Bills, in their own home. I have the Ravens almost four full points to the spread ahead of the Bills — as far ahead of Buffalo as the Bills are ahead of the Steelers and Seahawks. It's Baltimore and everyone else. That doesn't mean the Ravens are perfect. The defense allowed seven trips to the red zone, and the veteran secondary disappointed. Baltimore consistently gets overly conservative calling plays, especially holding a late lead. The Ravens had a 48% neutral pass rate, ahead of only the Jets. That's unacceptable when your QB is a two-time MVP averaging a first down per throw. But Sunday night should make us more confident in the Ravens, not less. It's not possible to give Baltimore a bigger test than it got Sunday night — on the road, in primetime, against the best non-Ravens team in the league — and Baltimore completely aced the test for 55 minutes before sports happened. The Ravens were so good Sunday that their Super Bowl odds barely changed at books, despite the loss. Their odds actually went up at FTN. That means it's time to invest in Baltimore stock in a rare buy-low spot — possibly our last. FTN projects Baltimore to go 12.1-3.9 the rest of the way. The Ravens are still projected with the second-best record in the NFL, 0.3 wins behind Buffalo, with a 93% chance of making the playoffs, a 75% shot of winning the AFC North, and over 50% at a top-2 seed. Pick your favorite bet or take the whole escalator. There's clear value on the division at -135 (FanDuel), implied 57%, especially with a get-right Browns game up next. There's also value on a Ravens 1-seed (+550, BetMGM), and especially on most wins (+900, DraftKings), since the Ravens can split that one even with a Buffalo tie. Sunday didn't show us Baltimore is a fraud. It showed us the Ravens are the best team in football, by far — and simultaneously gave us a chance to invest.

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

Bosa's loss is a huge deal for an already undermanned defensive line. Rookie Mykel Williams has been a difference maker in the run game but he may now see Bosa's usual double teams, and there are not much other pass-rush options outside of part-timer Bryce Huff. The 49ers are already weak at defensive tackle and safety. I make Bosa worth over a point to the spread, leaving San Francisco no real defensive strength now outside of Fred Warner. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has been great but has his work cut out for him. Bosa's loss drops the 49ers from a fringe top-10 defense to fringe bottom 10. And remember that soft schedule? Upcoming games against the Jaguars and Colts look a bit tougher now than expected, and a stretch against the Jags, Rams, Bucs, Falcons and Texans could mean more close games and maybe a few losses. As great as it feels to be 3-0, the 49ers are only one game up on every other team in the NFC West. There's still very little separation or margin for error. San Francisco doesn't get to catch its breath til a Week 14 bye, so the 49ers will just have to play through the injuries. And a wild-card spot is no certainty with the Packers, Vikings, Commanders, Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals all sitting at 2-1 but outside the division lead in the stacked NFC. It's not hard at all to envision the 49ers losing the NFC West. That looks like the league's toughest division, and I've got the Rams power rated clearly ahead of San Francisco right now. FTN has the Niners are 77% to make the playoffs and 23% to miss. That implies slight value on a +380 ticket to miss at BetMGM, implied 21% — and that could be a nice ticket to build around if the slew of injuries continue. You can bet under 11.5 wins at even money as well. How about taking it a step further? If things go even a little bad, the 49ers could slip quickly in the NFC West. San Francisco is +450 to finish third in the division and +1100 to finish last (bet365). San Francisco could even cash one of those tickets and make the playoffs. I bought 49ers futures back in February based on their long-tail upside, but it might be time to consider the long-tail downside with injuries piling up in a brutally tough division. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-futures-picks-predictions-ranking-which-undefeated-teams-could-miss-playoffs

Bosa's loss is a huge deal for an already undermanned defensive line. Rookie Mykel Williams has been a difference maker in the run game but he may now see Bosa's usual double teams, and there are not much other pass-rush options outside of part-timer Bryce Huff. The 49ers are already weak at defensive tackle and safety. I make Bosa worth over a point to the spread, leaving San Francisco no real defensive strength now outside of Fred Warner. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has been great but has his work cut out for him. Bosa's loss drops the 49ers from a fringe top-10 defense to fringe bottom 10. And remember that soft schedule? Upcoming games against the Jaguars and Colts look a bit tougher now than expected, and a stretch against the Jags, Rams, Bucs, Falcons and Texans could mean more close games and maybe a few losses. As great as it feels to be 3-0, the 49ers are only one game up on every other team in the NFC West. There's still very little separation or margin for error. San Francisco doesn't get to catch its breath til a Week 14 bye, so the 49ers will just have to play through the injuries. And a wild-card spot is no certainty with the Packers, Vikings, Commanders, Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals all sitting at 2-1 but outside the division lead in the stacked NFC. It's not hard at all to envision the 49ers losing the NFC West. That looks like the league's toughest division, and I've got the Rams power rated clearly ahead of San Francisco right now. FTN has the Niners are 77% to make the playoffs and 23% to miss. That implies slight value on a +380 ticket to miss at BetMGM, implied 21% — and that could be a nice ticket to build around if the slew of injuries continue. You can bet under 11.5 wins at even money as well. How about taking it a step further? If things go even a little bad, the 49ers could slip quickly in the NFC West. San Francisco is +450 to finish third in the division and +1100 to finish last (bet365). San Francisco could even cash one of those tickets and make the playoffs. I bought 49ers futures back in February based on their long-tail upside, but it might be time to consider the long-tail downside with injuries piling up in a brutally tough division. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-futures-picks-predictions-ranking-which-undefeated-teams-could-miss-playoffs

This week’s Extra Point! https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-16-parlay-picks-predictions

The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead. I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets. Could Jackson come back with a vengeance and tear up that soft schedule to lead the league in touchdown passes? He's +3000 to do so at bet365. Jackson threw for 10 TDs in four games and has an extra game with the bye passed, so that 2.5/game puts him on pace for 37.5 scores even with the missed games. The leader in this category is on pace for 41. Jackson has an outlier TD rate so far this year but he has led the league in that stat twice before, including last season, so it might not be an outlier at this point. He's +105 to hit 30 pass TDs and +420 to get to 35 at FanDuel if you want to ride the escalator.

The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead. I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets. Even with a slow start, Henry is on pace for 1,244 yards, and his historic splits are consistent: slow starts in September, ramping up into the fall, at his best in December and January as defenses wear down. Henry finally gets FB Patrick Ricard back, a huge addition along with LT Ronnie Stanley, and the return of Isaiah Likely means more heavy TE sets, another boon. Henry is -115 at FanDuel to hit 1,250 rushing yards, which he's already on pace for, and +310 to get to 1,500+ yards, a number he's hit in four of his last five healthy seasons. We're probably going to need a Jonathan Taylor injury to hit it, but rushing yards leader is also a play at +1400 (bet365). Taylor has a significant injury history and that field is wide open if he misses time. It's time to invest in Ravens futures — the statistical kind.

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

New award!! Williams is one of the best to ever play on the offensive line. And even at age 37, he still hasn't lost a step. He is as good and as valuable as anyone when he's out there — and noticeably just as valuable when he's not. Williams misses a few games each season but for an award without stats, that's probably not as important. He's arguably the most valuable player on the 49ers, a team capable of winning 12-plus games and making a push for the NFC 1-seed, and that's for a team without a clear MVP candidate, which makes this an excellent way of rewarding a great San Francisco season. If nothing else, this could just be a legacy pick for Williams. Who better to win the first Protector of the Year award than the guy who plays the most valuable position on the line just about as well as anyone who's ever played it? https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds

New award!! Thuney is widely regarded as one of the league's best guards, and he's got an easy narrative case. He already filled in admirably at both C and LT for the Chiefs en route to a Super Bowl berth last season — now he moves to the Bears, who could see a huge bump in line play and win profile. He might even get double credit if Kansas City's line falls off some without him. Thuney has committed five penalties the last three seasons combined. In nine NFL seasons, he's played in six Super Bowls with four rings and four All-Pro berths — and two missed starts. If Chicago makes a leap with an improved line, Thuney would be an excellent candidate at a pretty long number. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds

New award!! There are two linemen at each position on the six-man panel, which means two centers — the one position there's not multiple of on the line. And with Frank Ragnow retired, Humphrey is probably the most surefire consensus best in the NFL at his position. Many centers are great at run blocking, but Humphrey is one of the few who's also great at pass blocking. Life will be much harder this year without Joe Thuney next to him, though. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds

If Houston does push to the top of the AFC, DeMeco Ryans will get credit for the defense and could even get this as something of a career achievement award for the three-year arc of a team that won just three games in 2022. Ryans is certainly a longer shot, but he's also a great way to invest in a post-hype Texans team that's quietly become a bit underrated and overlooked. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-coach-of-the-year-predictions-picks-odds

POST PARSONS UPDATE: no longer interested in investing, cash out if possible What if Schottenheimer is a decent or even good head coach? What if he puts together an innovative offense and utilizes exciting young names on his staff like Klayton Adams and Ken Dorsey? What if Matt Eberflus puts a talented defense back together? Dallas could easily push for a division crown and then the sky's the limit in the NFC. This is a contrarian bet against myself. It's a great way to invest in the Cowboys this season at a supremely discounted price. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-coach-of-the-year-predictions-picks-odds

Robinson quietly did a terrific job coaxing an above average Offensive DVOA out of this team last year, considering he had to do so as a first-time playcaller with an old QB who couldn't move in Kirk Cousins and then a rookie debut in Michael Penix. If Penix continues to improve and keeps hitting those deep shots all season, this could be an explosive offense and Robinson could be the next Ben Johnson — architect of a great offense and future head coach, the talk of the league. Robinson is a bullseye for Assistant Coach of the Year, and this is a great way to bet on a high-end outcome for the Falcons Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Minter came with Jim Harbaugh from Michigan and worked wonders with an under-talented Chargers roster, turning them into one of the league's surprisingly great pass defenses. Minter mixed up coverages early on and got breakout seasons from young players like CB Tarheeb Still and LB Daiyan Henley. The Chargers offense could struggle some this year with stud T Rashawn Slater out. If L.A.'s defense carries it back to the playoffs with another aggressive campaign, Minter will be a buzzy head coaching candidate and could very well win this award. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Kingsbury did a great job adding creative run schemes to his playcalling, and he also called the plays that repeatedly helped the team convert in huge fourth downs all season, going a ridiculous 20-of-23. What if Kingsbury and the offense keep that up with an even bigger step forward, but Daniels isn't ready for MVP quite yet? Washington's defense is old and not great, so this would definitely be the side of the ball that gets credit. Kingsbury could be the perfect guy to get credit for a successful Commanders campaign, and he's got that failed head coach bounce-back narrative in his favor as well. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣 At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀

NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣 At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀

NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣 At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀

NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣 At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀

NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣 At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀

NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣 At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀

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NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣 At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀

49ers as next year’s Eagles? My first 2026 Super Bowl pick Hot Read 🔥: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2026-nfl-futures-expert-projects-next-season-super-bowl-pick

Next year’s Vikings? Elite D, great O weapons & new OC Kubiak elevates O: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2026-nfl-futures-expert-projects-next-season-super-bowl-pick

MVP requires stats, wins, and narrative. Rams offense should be far healthier + Davante Adams, which could mean huge numbers and a push into top 5 all time pass yards, plus big wins and a top 2 seed if the young defensive front continues to improve. Would be a crowning HOF achievement at his age and an obvious media narrative boost. No reason a QB this good on a team this talented to be priced this long. Should be half this number max. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-mvp-futures-picks-best-5000-long-shot-on-board

We already know Tagovailoa will post awesome numbers for Mike McDaniel when healthy, and we already know the Dolphins with Tua healthy are a winning team. Tagovailoa has a winning record in all three McDaniel seasons and 4500/30 pace over 17 games. Of course, Tagovailoa is a significant injury risk, but if he actually stays healthy for most of the season, the Dolphins should push for nine or 10 wins and the playoffs. Tagovailoa should be in the mix with any other QB option for this award. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

The entire world saw Greenlaw tear his Achilles in the Super Bowl. He played just two games last year, but we already know Greenlaw can be about as good and impactful as any linebacker in football when healthy. Now Greenlaw joins a Denver defense that already ranked among the league's finest last season. If the Broncos take another step and are a clear No. 1 unit with Greenlaw buzzing around the field at the heart of everything, he'll get a ton of media attention. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

TRADE UPDATE: happy with our huge CLV, clear media fav now, but new unknown situation means caution too. If you missed, don’t chase steam now. Parsons was the betting favorite in each of the last two seasons, and he'd absolutely be my favorite again if I were making the odds. It seems pretty clear Parsons will win DPOY at some point in his career, maybe more than one. He would be my clear favorite for an award we overwhelmingly give to favorites. Parsons was priced at +600 last season; I wouldn't price him longer than +300. But you can bet him at +800 at DraftKings or Caesars, or an outlandish +1350 at Circa. I don't just like Micah Parsons for DPOY — I absolutely love him. He's my favorite awards bet of the entire 2025 awards circuit, and I'm investing multiple units while we get this outrageous discount. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

There's reason to believe Hunter, not Brian Thomas Jr., will step into that power slot role Godwin occupied, especially considering his elite Reception Perception route tree. I'm of the belief that Hunter will be a part-time defender, especially after missing much of training camp with that injury. And maybe, rather than those snaps taking away from Hunter's offensive upside, we're thinking about it all wrong — I think any defensive snaps and the occasional highlight play or kick return could just act as extra credit for Hunter's OROY case. I think the positional uncertainty and injury questions are buying us value. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

The Broncos want to run to protect Bo Nix, and Denver has the consensus second-best offensive line in the league. And though Javonte Williams stunk last season, he did get 217 carries. Sean Payton's system has been great for RBs, with his team finishing top seven in rushing TDs over half his seasons as a head coach and a long history of using his backs in the passing game. Alvin Kamara won OROY under Payton, and Harvey has flashed versatility as a receiver in the preseason, and he ran for 1,400+ yards and 16+ TDs each of his last two seasons at Central Florida. Harvey remains undervalued in both fantasy football and betting. He'd have top-five odds for me to win OROY, at least 10% likely, so that makes him a serious bargain at +3000 (DraftKings), or +3600 at Circa if you have it. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Nate Tice called Kaleb Johnson "Honey, I shrunk Derrick Henry," and now he'll play in the zone-heavy Arthur Smith run scheme that helped Henry leap to stardom. Johnson had a monster 240/1,537/21 line on the ground at Iowa a year ago and could take many of the 263 carries Najee Harris had last season. Smith's offenses routinely rank near the top half of the league in rushing attempts so Johnson could be in for a big role once he earns the staff's trust — and this young offensive line has upside. He's a good long shot at +4000 (FanDuel) or +5500 (Circa). https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

"Bill" has had a great preseason, and it's often a good idea backing a RB playing next to a QB running threat. JCM has only seven receptions in his career, so you'll likely need a bunch of yards and a heap of short TDs, but that could be possible for a Washington offense that's invested a lot in its line. Croskey-Merritt is shooting up fantasy boards and odds alike. He's a starting RB on a good offense — that means he's worth a play in theory, but be sure to shop around. I'd sprinkle him at +3500 at BetRivers or +4000 (Circa), but probably stop before +2500. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Simmons is also extremely talented — Brandon Thorn's No. 1 rated blocker in the draft when healthy — and Simmons has looked healthy and outstanding and will step immediately into a starting left tackle role, protecting the blindside of the best player in the game. If Simmons plays well and Patrick Mahomes finally has time to throw it deep again, we're going to hear Josh Simmons talked about as an "it" rookie on every broadcast all season. It's the Chiefs, after all! Heck, we'll probably even hear the Kelces talk about Simmons on the booming "New Heights" podcast at some point, seeing as one one of them will be lining up next to him at tight end and the other one is an offensive lineman. All we need now is Taylor Swift to show up to a Kansas City game rocking a No. 71 Simmons jersey and this Love Story will be complete. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

He should get plenty of early work for the Texans with Joe Mixon (ankle) out for the first four weeks of the season, and it sure looks like Mixon could be out even longer. Chubb's obviously got his own injury history, but he is a great pure runner and a guy that has a nose for the end zone. In the five seasons he was healthy, Chubb scored at least eight rushing touchdowns in each of them, hitting 12 twice. Chubb will be running for offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who coached with the Rams under Sean McVay and previously under Patriots OC Josh McDaniels. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-props-long-shot-picks-for-nick-chubb-roschon-johnson-rj-harvey

Johnson's offense ranked top three in rushing touchdowns all three years in Detroit. One of those years, D'Andre Swift was on the team — but he only had five TDs. Jamaal Williams had 17 (2022) and led the league. Remember, I ranked the Bears offense eighth in the NFL in my offense preview column. They also have one of the best offensive lines and offensive coordinators — there will be plenty of scoring opportunities if it goes according to plan in Chicago. All the reporting out of Chicago indicates that Roschon Johnson is the goal-line guy. So 150-to-1 to lead the league? Sign me up. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-props-long-shot-picks-for-nick-chubb-roschon-johnson-rj-harvey

In his last two years at UCF, Harvey was a scoring machine, racking up 38 rushing touchdowns. Sean Payton loves to pound the rock. His teams have been top seven in rushing touchdowns in 10 of the 17 years as head coach. We've seen big double-digit TD seasons from Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Harvey also gets to run behind an offensive line widely regarded as the second best in the league, and one of the league's best defenses could set the Broncos up routinely with short fields and easy scoring chance. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-props-long-shot-picks-for-nick-chubb-roschon-johnson-rj-harvey

The Eagles were playing with a lead in almost every game, and that made them the run-heaviest team in the league in second halves. It's natural to expect Philadelphia to come back to earth a little in 2025, and that should mean more passing opportunity for Brown. Brown averages over 10 yards per target for his career and almost 16 yards per catch, insane efficiency metrics. He paced for 127 catches in 13 games last season, and he had a seven-game stretch the previous season with 120+ yards in every game and a pace for 2,355 yards. With a pass-heavier script in Philadelphia, Brown has serious potential to become the first 2,000-yard receiver in league history. He's also got an easy narrative story as potentially the sneaky-best receiver in the NFL that's been hiding behind a run-heavy offense. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Brian Thomas Jr. was electric as a rookie. His final seven-game pace was for 121 catches, 1,640 yards, and 12 touchdowns. He'd need to hit those numbers and then some to win this, but now he should get a big boost in a Liam Coen offense that helped Mike Evans and Chris Godwin put up monster numbers a year ago in Tampa Bay. The arrival of Travis Hunter could take some targets from Thomas, but Jacksonville lost a ton of receptions to Evan Engram, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, so there should plenty of balls to go around from Trevor Lawrence. Hunter's presence could also leave Thomas in more frequent single coverage. Jacksonville has a bad defense and poor run game and offensive line, so it really has to be the passing game if the Jaguars are to succeed. That could set Thomas up as this year's Ja'Marr Chase if everything clicks. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Tyreek Hill finished top four in OPOY voting two years straight before falling off the map last season. He's 31 now and we'll probably never get that Tyreek back, but I'd hate myself for passing on him at such a long number if I'm wrong. This is a bet on both Tyreek and Tua Tagovailoa staying healthy, so it's asking for a lot, but Tyreek has record-breaking talent if it's still in there somewhere. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

I will break my own rules and place a small bet on McCaffrey — because he would be my outright favorite, and I'd place his odds closer to +800 or +1000 among the favorites and don't expect +2200 to be available later. McCaffrey plays an incredibly soft schedule, and he consistently puts up elite numbers when healthy, so his OPOY season wasn't even really a significant outlier. McCaffrey is still only 29 and always pushes 2,000 scrimmage yards with his receiving abilities, and he has a great nose for the end zone and should score plenty for the 49ers. McCaffrey has finished first, third and seventh in OPOY voting, and he has a cake schedule right out of the gates. It's impossibly tough to repeat as OPOY but there's too much value at +2200 to not add him to our position while that number is there (at Caesars). https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Williams posted 4.5 or 5.0 sacks all three seasons as part of Georgia's rotation — just 14 total in three seasons — though he did add 23 tackles for losses. Those aren't overwhelming flash stats, but they're close enough to get a look as he moves into more of a feature role in the pros, especially since he can also slide inside and rush over the tackle. That could keep him on the field for all three downs. Don't underestimate the coaching either. Saleh has great defensive chops, and Williams should also benefit from playing for legendary San Francisco defensive line coach Kris Kocurek, who repeatedly coaxes big seasons out of his linemen. Maybe Williams will be his next success story. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

He led the Big Ten with 90 tackles last year and also added four sacks and two interceptions. Cleveland is suddenly lacking linebacker options so Schwesinger should be a day one starter. Maybe he puts up numbers similar to what Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah did two years ago for Jim Schwartz, 101 combined tackles with two picks and 3.5 sacks. Schwesinger had a top-50 athleticism score among over 3,200 linebacker prospects since 1987, so he's elite at everything and can certainly make some big plays. Schwesinger has had great reviews in the preseason and even had six tackles in 13 snaps one game. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Jackson has never lost more than five games in a season and he's proven he has the advanced metrics in addition to the ever-present flash and stats; his abilities as a runner also seem to scramble voters' brains so that even a potential dip in passing stats may not matter. Likewise his ongoing fumbling problem, when only interceptions seem to count front of mind. There's also a very easy Jackson narrative. True, he's yet to make that big playoff run, but there's also ubiquitous sentiment that Jackson was "robbed" of this award last year. That's a column for another day, but if Jackson and the Ravens lap the field again, voters will make no mistake about it this time around. At the end of the day — and I can't believe I of all people am writing this — Jackson might simply be the age-old MVP formula: the best player on the best team in the regular season. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-mvp-predictions-odds-qs

Purdy was in the mix two years ago before injuries derailed San Francisco's season, but he may have actually earned a modicum of respect with his play last season. With lesser weapons and less help around him, Purdy might actually get some credit. The numbers and advanced metrics will be there in a Kyle Shanahan system — Purdy led the league in both EPA and EPA + CPOE in 2023, and he's over a 5% TD rate and almost 9.0 yards per attempt for his career. There's also an obvious narrative in play for a guy who was Mr. Irrelevant as the last pick in the draft. Did Purdy take another leap? Is he a top-10 QB now? https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-mvp-predictions-odds-qs

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams Escalator: 1250/+250 (0.5u), 1500/+700 (0.1u)

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams Escalator: 30/+260 (0.5u), 35/+650 (0.1u)

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

Boost available today only at DK. The Bears have famously never had a 4000 yard passer, but Jared Goff averaged 4550 his 3 years with Ben Johnson and was never below 4438. If Caleb plays 17, this is a really bad number.

For most of Sunday night, I spent the evening cackling at my screen. How could you not? Lamar Jackson danced around the screen, firing lasers to a wide-open-again Zay Flowers and turning 30-yard sacks into 19-yard scampers. When he got tired, Baltimore handed it off to Derrick Henry, who trucked a few defenders and burst down the sidelines for another long run. Somewhere in between, we remembered DeAndre Hopkins was on this team when he snagged a one-handed score. Flowers had a career-high 143 yards. Henry had 169 yards and two scores. Jackson had a 98th percentile 0.69 EPA per play on over 11 YPA. The Ravens posted a 0.39 EPA per play on the night, 98th percentile and over 50% ahead of the Bills, while averaging 8.6 yards per play. And then, like it has so many times before, it all came crashing down. Henry fumbled, the secondary couldn't stop a nosebleed, the offense disappeared late and the Ravens choked, losing by a score of 41-40. The Ravens had around a 99% probability of winning with under five minutes left; now they're 0-1. It's the eighth loss since 2021 for Baltimore when it hit a win probability of at least 90%, five more than any other team. Baltimore just keeps blowing these games somehow. And at some point, that has to be a pattern… right? It is a pattern — but maybe not the one you think. The pattern is that Baltimore keeps blowing quality and even great opponents out of the water and getting to 90 and even 99% win probability. That means more chances to blow an occasional lead late, so that part is happening too because hey, the ball is oblong and football is hard. But what Sunday night told us most meaningfully with 21 weeks of football to go is that Baltimore is the best team in football — by far. The Bills are No. 2 in my power ratings matrix, a loaded roster led by the reigning MVP, and the Ravens treated them like a plaything for 55 minutes. Baltimore looked like it could score anytime it wanted. The Ravens were embarrassing the Bills, in their own home. I have the Ravens almost four full points to the spread ahead of the Bills — as far ahead of Buffalo as the Bills are ahead of the Steelers and Seahawks. It's Baltimore and everyone else. That doesn't mean the Ravens are perfect. The defense allowed seven trips to the red zone, and the veteran secondary disappointed. Baltimore consistently gets overly conservative calling plays, especially holding a late lead. The Ravens had a 48% neutral pass rate, ahead of only the Jets. That's unacceptable when your QB is a two-time MVP averaging a first down per throw. But Sunday night should make us more confident in the Ravens, not less. It's not possible to give Baltimore a bigger test than it got Sunday night — on the road, in primetime, against the best non-Ravens team in the league — and Baltimore completely aced the test for 55 minutes before sports happened. The Ravens were so good Sunday that their Super Bowl odds barely changed at books, despite the loss. Their odds actually went up at FTN. That means it's time to invest in Baltimore stock in a rare buy-low spot — possibly our last. FTN projects Baltimore to go 12.1-3.9 the rest of the way. The Ravens are still projected with the second-best record in the NFL, 0.3 wins behind Buffalo, with a 93% chance of making the playoffs, a 75% shot of winning the AFC North, and over 50% at a top-2 seed. Pick your favorite bet or take the whole escalator. There's clear value on the division at -135 (FanDuel), implied 57%, especially with a get-right Browns game up next. There's also value on a Ravens 1-seed (+550, BetMGM), and especially on most wins (+900, DraftKings), since the Ravens can split that one even with a Buffalo tie. Sunday didn't show us Baltimore is a fraud. It showed us the Ravens are the best team in football, by far — and simultaneously gave us a chance to invest.

Kitchen Sink Week YOLO nibble 🙃 Miami offense showed some signs of life, and if the Dolphins somehow escape Buffalo with a win, the next month of games against the Jets, Panthers and Browns suddenly looks very winnable. It feels crazy right now, but the NFL stands for Not For Long. The Dolphins might be worth a tiny nibble at +5000 to win the AFC East (DraftKings), just in case they somehow pull the upset on Thursday are are suddenly one game back with a dangerous offense and a super winnable upcoming schedule. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-0-2-teams-ranked-playoff-chances-chiefs-bears-texans-more

Everyone's buzzing about Baker Mayfield after two late-game comebacks and no interceptions yet, but Mayfield has been incredibly lucky to not throw a pick yet. He leads the league with six Turnover Worthy Plays so far per PFF, tied with Bo Nix, who has looked about as bad as any starter. In fact, only six quarterbacks over half that many — an ugly list that includes Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Bryce Young, and J.J. McCarthy. That makes this a great opportunity to buy low on a Baker Mayfield interception, a rare chance to get in at a plus number at +105 (bet365). Mayfield led the league last year with 16 interceptions. He threw at least one interception in over half his games each of the past two seasons for the Bucs, 56% of them overall, and that about matches his lifetime number with at least one pick in 60-of-105 starts, a 57% hit rate. That should mean a clear minus number for interception odds, and we're getting plus money. How about a little escalator, in case the regression all comes at once? Mayfield is +525 to throw at least two interceptions (bet365). He did that five times last year even en route to the Bucs winning the division, and he's thrown at least two picks in 22-of-105 career starts, a 21% hit rate that should imply a number under +400. Mayfield's teams are only 6-16 SU in those games with multiple interceptions. That makes sense, and since we're playing the Jets anyway, it's worth parlaying multiple interceptions with a Jets ML pick at +2275 (bet365) if your book allows it. I also like betting Mayfield to lead the league in interceptions again at +2500 (bet365). He just did that last year, and the season still has a long ways to go in a wonky market. The current leader in odds, Jake Browning, didn't even play Week 1 and may not start all season! Mayfield had 16 last year and also has seasons of 14 and 21, so he can close in a hurry. Buy the dip.

Kitchen Sink Week: This remains a great opportunity to buy low on a championship defense and spine. If Caley can find some answers offensively and Stroud can get going, this could easily be a top-five team in the AFC. But with the daunting schedule, it's pretty clear that the best path is the division — beating up on the Colts, Jaguars and Titans to accrue wins and take the easiest path to the playoffs: the AFC South. Verdict: Buy the dip on the Texans. Trust the defense to get it done with the Jaguars and Titans next and invest in Houston as a +270 division winner — it's a a far better price than +130 to make the playoffs when the division is the best path. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-0-2-teams-ranked-playoff-chances-chiefs-bears-texans-more

Remember how the Giants were a sneaky top-10-potential defense? Turns out not so much. New York ranks 30th in Defensive DVOA so far and dead last against the run. The Giants are so bad against the rush that even the Chiefs were able to run on them! This isn't new either. The Giants allowed almost 1900 rushing yards to RBs last season, fifth most in the NFL, with the median outcome for a lead RB at 87 yards, so over half the games! This season the Giants are allowing 5.2 yards per carry, and that's against Washington, Dallas, and Kansas City — not exactly a murderer's row of opposing running backs. Volume is key here. Since the start of last season, RBs with 14+ carries against the Giants are averaging 121 rushing yards. With Najee Harris out for the season, Hampton should see a huge workload under notoriously run-heavy OC Greg Roman. Hampton had 19 carries just last week even with Harris playing part of the game, and he had 23 carries the first two games even in a part-time role. Play Hampton to go over 62.5 rushing yards (BetRivers), considering he hit that already last week with 70 yards against a far better defense despite playing part-time. This is a great opportunity for a Hampton breakout game too. Six RBs hit 100 yards against the Giants last season, so let's play Hampton to do that at +475 (bet365). He's +1000 to make it to 120 rushing yards, right at that average outcome for RBs with 14+ carries against New York. If Hampton does have a huge rushing game, we'll definitely want that Offensive Rookie of the Year ticket too at +900 (Circa). I'm selling high on Emeka Egbuka with other Bucs WRs coming back and on Tyler Warren since a tight end has never won the award, and I'm not buying Dart with a rough upcoming schedule. This race feels open to some of the RBs slowly nudging themselves into a bigger role, and Hampton leads the pack. If he has a big game against the Giants on Sunday, Omarion Hampton could wake up Monday morning as a Rookie of the Year favorite.

CPOY goes to an injury return, typically a QB (12 of the last 16), on a 9+ win playoff team (13 of the last 15). I don’t love the favs. Only one RB has won ever and CMC isn’t running well. Only 1 defender last 16 is a strike against Hutch. Jones coming back from sucking not injury. Dak big stats but unlikely playoff contender + CD hurt. Lawrence hasn’t been great but everything else about Jax has and looks far more likely to win 9 and make playoffs now than before the season, so why has he dropped from +550 preseason then to +2500 now? Makes no sense for a narrative award when we give QBs credit for wins. Playing now before wk5 MNF which is all upside if he wins a showcase home game against Mahomes and gets to 4-1, but still very much in the mix with a loss and no standout CPOY candidate.

Jacksonville is coming off a huge win Monday night, one of its biggest in recent franchise history. That's great for the Jaguars but also makes this an obvious letdown spot after such an emotional comeback win, especially on short rest. Jacksonville was lucky to get that win, needing a late stumbling, bumbling touchdown even after a 99-yard pick-6 that was effectively a 14-point swing for the Jags. Jacksonville's defense made the big play but was mostly miserable, allowing the Chiefs offense to hit 64% Success Rate, a top 100 percentile outcome, and move the ball at will. Now it faces a Seattle offense that nearly matched that last week in an incredible performance against the Bucs, undone by a couple mistakes. Jacksonville has the better record, but Seattle is the better team and should be favored here, and the Seahawks might be by kickoff, as this line floats around a pick'em. Seattle ranks second in DVOA on the season. It's not super surprising to see the Seahawks 7th on defense or first in special teams, but the offense has been shocking. Sam Darnold has been a revelation for the league's No. 1 passing offense, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has broken out as a true star WR1 and sleeper OPOY contender. The Jaguars traded this week for Browns CB Greg Newsome. Could he immediately get the JSN assignment? Yikes. Neither of these defenses really covered themselves in glory last week. Seattle's pass defense got shredded, dropping from 2nd to 15th in DVOA, but faced a much better passing attack and a bunch of secondary injuries. A healthier unit should be able to hold up better against what's really been the most disappointing part of the Jaguars thus far, Trevor Lawrence and the unreliable passing game. Jacksonville's defense also saw its metrics fall way off last week, from top three to around league average, and from top to bottom 10 against the run. The Jaguars do get Travon Walker back this week but the defense has been over reliant on huge turnover swings, getting beaten on a down-to-down basis. I like Jacksonville — I just like Seattle better. In Weeks 6 and 7, underdogs of a touchdown or less against teams with an elite ATS record of 80-to-99% are an awesome 41-16-1 ATS, covering 72% of the time by about five points a game. Seattle is also a Luck Rankings side. Grab Seahawks +1.5 or the best number available, and switch to the moneyline if you must. I prefer the +1.5 since both coaches are aggressive and it wouldn't be surprising to see a two-point conversion decide this one. If you do like Seattle here, this is also a great opportunity to invest in Seahawks futures. Seattle is top five in my power ratings. The Seahawks have a top-five defense when healthy, a top-five coaching staff, and the league's best special teams. If the offense continues to play as a top-10 unit too, Seattle could be a great pick to win the NFC West at +500 (DraftKings). It's a great opportunity to fade the injury-riddled 4-1 49ers, underdogs this week in Tampa Bay. This looks like a three-horse race with the Rams in the mix too, and FTN projects all three teams between 10.3 and 10.7 wins and between 26 and 38% to win the division. Seattle is lowest of the three but not by much, and that 26% opportunity implies under +300 and will only get better with a win in Jacksonville.

For a second straight week, I strongly considered the Cowboys as a short road favorite. This Dallas offense looks legit, and Dak Prescott is typically great as a favorite and against sub-.500 teams. The Cowboys should score. But they might allow plenty of points to the Panthers too, as bad as their defense is playing, and with a total at 49.5, this could end up in the running for highest-scoring game of the week. Could this finally be the Tet McMillan breakout game? Carolina's star rookie WR has looked the part on the field but yet to put up a huge line, but this matchup sets up well for some big time production. The Cowboys rank bottom three in the NFL both against the pass and overall by Defensive DVOA. This pass defense just has no shot right now, especially against opposing WR1s. Malik Nabers had nine catches for 167 yards and two scores against Dallas. Rome Odunze had 62 yards and a TD. Romeo Doubs found the end zone three times, and Garrett Wilson saw 71 yards and a score himself. All four of those WRs scored a touchdown, with Nabers scoring twice and Doubs three times. Dallas allowed a TD to 8-of-17 opposing WR1s last season too, almost half of them. McMillan's receptions and yardage lines have been bet up this week past value, so I'm investing in a touchdown or two. He's a big target and should be Bryce Young's look in the red zone, and we could see a whole bunch of touchdowns in a potential shootout. I'll back McMillan for an Anytime Touchdown at +150 (Caesars) and put a bit on two TDs at +1200 too (FanDuel) with plenty of scores to go around. This might also be the spot to buy a Tet McMillan ticket for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +1300 (ESPN Bet). Emeka Egbuka is the clear favorite right now but should slow down once Mike Evans and Chris Godwin return, and the field looks pretty wide open after Egbuka with Ashton Jeanty second in name only. A big game Sunday from McMillan should finally get him the attention he deserves.

🏈 Introducing the Pick Six! 🏈 I’ll start each week at @ActionNetworkHQ by picking 6 NFL sides that *should* win in the upcoming slate to build a moneyline parlay… +630 this week! Plus my Extra Point, a parting thought DROY long shot at 60-1. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-7-parlay-predictions

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It’s only boring bc it’s so obviously the right bet. Depleted field, best player best team, a runaway clear favorite if healthy. I’d take him vs the field. Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣

Just shouldn’t be 18x SGA, clear favs Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣

The most fun awards bet you can make this sn Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣

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My favorite awards bet of the preseason. 🎯 Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣

It’s boring but it’s going to win barring injury. Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣

Prior winner, absolute bullseye for this award at a wild outlier number at FD Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣

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One last pre-season bet, the final pick from our Bet-a-Palooza podcast. Calling my title shot! @TurveyBets & I were on OKC last year… this year we’re both looking to invest in Nuggets title futures! 🏆

The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead. I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets. Could Jackson come back with a vengeance and tear up that soft schedule to lead the league in touchdown passes? He's +3000 to do so at bet365. Jackson threw for 10 TDs in four games and has an extra game with the bye passed, so that 2.5/game puts him on pace for 37.5 scores even with the missed games. The leader in this category is on pace for 41. Jackson has an outlier TD rate so far this year but he has led the league in that stat twice before, including last season, so it might not be an outlier at this point. He's +105 to hit 30 pass TDs and +420 to get to 35 at FanDuel if you want to ride the escalator.

The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead. I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets. Could Jackson come back with a vengeance and tear up that soft schedule to lead the league in touchdown passes? He's +3000 to do so at bet365. Jackson threw for 10 TDs in four games and has an extra game with the bye passed, so that 2.5/game puts him on pace for 37.5 scores even with the missed games. The leader in this category is on pace for 41. Jackson has an outlier TD rate so far this year but he has led the league in that stat twice before, including last season, so it might not be an outlier at this point. He's +105 to hit 30 pass TDs and +420 to get to 35 at FanDuel if you want to ride the escalator.

The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead. I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets. Even with a slow start, Henry is on pace for 1,244 yards, and his historic splits are consistent: slow starts in September, ramping up into the fall, at his best in December and January as defenses wear down. Henry finally gets FB Patrick Ricard back, a huge addition along with LT Ronnie Stanley, and the return of Isaiah Likely means more heavy TE sets, another boon. Henry is -115 at FanDuel to hit 1,250 rushing yards, which he's already on pace for, and +310 to get to 1,500+ yards, a number he's hit in four of his last five healthy seasons. We're probably going to need a Jonathan Taylor injury to hit it, but rushing yards leader is also a play at +1400 (bet365). Taylor has a significant injury history and that field is wide open if he misses time. It's time to invest in Ravens futures — the statistical kind.

The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead. I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets. Even with a slow start, Henry is on pace for 1,244 yards, and his historic splits are consistent: slow starts in September, ramping up into the fall, at his best in December and January as defenses wear down. Henry finally gets FB Patrick Ricard back, a huge addition along with LT Ronnie Stanley, and the return of Isaiah Likely means more heavy TE sets, another boon. Henry is -115 at FanDuel to hit 1,250 rushing yards, which he's already on pace for, and +310 to get to 1,500+ yards, a number he's hit in four of his last five healthy seasons. We're probably going to need a Jonathan Taylor injury to hit it, but rushing yards leader is also a play at +1400 (bet365). Taylor has a significant injury history and that field is wide open if he misses time. It's time to invest in Ravens futures — the statistical kind.

I keep banging the drum on Seattle futures, and there's still some value with the team overlooked after the bye week. A simple bet on over 10.5 wins looks good (-130, FanDuel), with FTN projecting Seattle at 11.6 wins, and there's still some value on a division ticket at +240 (DraftKings), with books giving San Francisco too much credit as an option. The Seahawks are also +500 to reach the NFC Championship Game (bet365), insultingly longer than the 49ers, if you're ready to buy into a postseason run. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-9-parlay-predictions

And don't look now, but it's probably time to buy Ravens stock going forward. After TNF, the Ravens have games against the Vikings, Browns, and Jets, which means 1-5 might turn into 6-5 in a hurry, with all four Steelers and Bengals games to come after that. There's a reason Baltimore is still the division favorite. A simple bet on Ravens over 8.5 wins at +100 (FanDuel) makes sense with this soft schedule, even if you decide to pivot later. This may also be a smart time to invest in Jackson and Henry statistical futures. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-9-parlay-predictions

Week 11 Extra Point: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-parlay-week-11-moneyline-predictions-picks

For all the talk about Rams-Seahawks, this game could wind up just as important in the NFC. We already know both these teams are built for the playoffs, having seen them each go on deep runs. Playoff football is about running the ball and playing defense, exactly what these teams have built their identities around. Right now, though, Detroit is better at both. The Lions defense has been outstanding this season, top five by DVOA. The Eagles are coming off one of their best performances of the season in defense after adding Jaelan Phillips, but Philadelphia is still just 13th in DVOA on the season. As for the rushing attacks, the Lions appear to have the advantage both ways. Detroit ranks 6th in DVOA running the ball while the Eagles rank just 21st in defense. Flip it around and the Eagles are a surprising 22nd by DVOA rushing, while the Lions rank 7th. Saquon Barkley just hasn't hit those explosives this season, and four of five Eagles linemen are on the injury report. That line hasn't been as good as it was in past years. For all the talk about Philadelphia's improvement, Detroit also took a big step last week. Dan Campbell took over play calling, and the impact was immediately apparent. The Lions rank top three by EPA per play in both motion and playaction plays, and they immediately used more motion with Campbell and nearly doubled their playaction calls. That could be a huge problem for the Eagles, since they rank 29th by EPA per play defending playaction. Both sides have important injuries, and it's never fun backing Jared Goff on the road in a windy environment, but Detroit is the better team on both sides of the ball, with superior special teams and coaching. The Lions are also a luck side in our Luck Rankings. Grab Lions +3 while it's there (ESPN Bet) at the key, or best number available. I actually make the Lions the favorite, so I'm inclined to bet on a win too. Just the moneyline isn't enticing enough, but Detroit has won nine straight games by at least six points so let's place a portion of the bet on Lions -5.5 alt at +246 (DraftKings). The futures angle here is clear — bet MVP for the QB on the team you expect to win. The MVP race still appears to be wide open. Quarterbacks on top-two seeds win this award, so the prices for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen appear way off with their teams in the wildcard race, and upstart Drake Maye has the MVP target on his back now. The Eagles enter the weekend at 52% to be a top-two seed, while the Lions are at 40%. Whichever team wins will be in contention with the Rams-Seahawks winner for the top spot in the NFC, and that could be the kingmaker spot. Hurts is on pace for 4,000 yards and 40 TDs including rushing, with only two interceptions. Goff is on pace for 4,200 yards passing with 38 TDs and six picks, and his passing rate went up with Campbell calling plays. The Lions still have a number of marquee games on the schedule — Packers on Thanksgiving, Cowboys the following Thursday night, a huge late afternoon game against the Rams, and the Vikings on Christmas. The Lions will be favored in every game the rest of the season except that Rams one — an obvious narrative revenge spot against his old team. Hurts and Goff are priced similarly for MVP to guys like Justin Herbert playing with no offensive line, Baker Mayfield whose entire supporting cast is injured, and Lamar Jackson who has under a 3% shot at a top-two seed. If we like the Lions, we have to like Goff for MVP too in a wide open race. That's the ultimate Lions escalator on Sunday night at +3000 (ESPN Bet).

Bengals +2000 to win the division at MGM looks worth a sprinkle. Cincinnati feels live against Pittsburgh today and New England next week. The offense always keeps them live, and reinforcements are coming. Baltimore overpriced too. Should be at most half this price right now. Cincinnati win today would put them one win behind the top of the division with a sweep over the Steelers, and both Ravens games still to come.

This game has already been a wild ride before it's even begun. I took Bengals +7 on the Hot Read, then saw that line balloon as high as +9 in the next day when Ja'Marr Chase was suspended for Spitgate. Then the line bounced right back the other way as Joe Burrow began practicing and looked like he might start. Now, as that remains uncertain, the line has settled right back in the middle. Chase is a real loss, of course, but Burrow would be an even bigger gain. It looks like Burrow will be listed as questionable and could even be something of a game-time decision, but I think this is one of the worst lines of the season and I'm going to like Cincinnati either way. I make it Patriots under a field goal if Burrow plays. This is a kitchen sink spot for the Bengals, now 3–7 with a daunting Ravens-Bills-Ravens stretch up next, playing at home with their backs against the wall. The game shapes up as a shootout, and the Bengals have the guns to go blow for blow and save their season. We know how bad Cincinnati's defense is. It's not just 32nd in DVOA but now the worst ever defense measured by DVOA through 10 games. The only real good news is that defense is not sticky, and worst-ever can truly only regress to the mean - any change is good. The key in this matchup, though, is that the Patriots defense has been pretty bad too. Despite the 9–2 record, New England ranks bottom five both overall and against the pass in Defensive DVOA. The Patriots are also missing Milton Williams and potentially a few other names on the front seven. This pass defense is beatable, and the Bengals are ready to pass. New England's offense has been good but not great, fringe top 10 in many metrics. It hasn't run well all season and may not be able to hurt this bad run defense, so that makes things more volatile in the pass game and puts it all on the shoulders of Drake Maye. Maye has played like an MVP this season but gets precious little help - and if Burrow does return, he negates that QB advantage, but with better weapons around him. The Bengals have actually had the better offense of late, ranking 3rd by DVOA over the last six games. Cincinnati's offense also has huge home-road splits, top five at home versus bottom five on the road. Over their last 12 home games, the Bengals average a whopping 36.8 PPG, with all but one of those games at 30 points or better. Joe Flacco has been terrific at home too, scoring 33, 38, and 42 with Cincinnati and so far this season winning home games against the Steelers and Packers, nearly a third til a last-second Bears loss, and two other one-point losses. All signs point to this being a shootout, and the Bengals have the better offense, the better weapons, and maybe now the better QB if Burrow plays. I love this spot for the Bengals, and I'm betting both the spread and the moneyline - but let's talk about when to bet it. The price at this point is a hedge, at Bengals +7 and +270 ML. If Burrow starts, that dips below the key number, so if you think Joe Cool plays, you should grab your ticket now - or wait and get confirmation that this is an even better spot for Cincinnati, despite a slightly worse number. Burrow has been lights out in his career as an underdog, too. If you're worried Burrow sits, you may want to wait to get confirmation of that too. Flacco back in should likely push this past Bengals +7 the other direction and buy a better price, but I'll still like it either way. I'm also nibbling the Bengals at +4000 to win the division (ESPN Bet). Those upcoming games against the Ravens, Bills, then Ravens again are tough, but they're also not as bad as they sound the way those teams are playing, and they're a direct opportunity to win against opponents Cincinnati is competing head-to-head with for a long-shot playoff berth.

Carter to win DROY Wide open field still, preseason favorite and he ranks top 25 in pressures and has been great, just getting super unlucky with sacks. Very juicy sack potential down stretch with NE WAS MIN LV, can still make a push. This is a great hedge for us with Schwesinger +3500 and Emmanwori +6000 already in tow, but also looks like a worthy standalone play if you missed those.

Not convinced this is a 2-horse race. Love has the advanced metrics and the team wins to make a push: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-mvp-race-jordan-love-threatening-drake-maye-and-matthew-stafford

It’s finally time to bet Chiefs futures, bc they’ve been so mid they back doored into a great path and long shot value: https://www.actionnetwork.com/general/nfl-futures-bet-chiefs-to-win-afc-super-bowl

It’s finally time to bet Chiefs futures, bc they’ve been so mid they back doored into a great path and long shot value: https://www.actionnetwork.com/general/nfl-futures-bet-chiefs-to-win-afc-super-bowl

Grabbing some Oregon title stock. If I’m reading the board right, they look like the 5, which means the easiest matchup rd1, then also the easiest matchup rd2, likely TT. Then rd3 avoid UGa/tOSU in the 2/3. Path to title game: JMU, TT, then IU/ND. 🦆 Ducks +1100 Hard Rock 🦆

Sack, INT, blocked FG just today is practically an entire DROY season in this class. It’s him or Schwesinger at this point, and he had a brief injury today. This market moves fast, he could be like +300 in a heartbeat but is 30-1 Riv 25-1 FD right now so adding.

With Taylor’s case crippled, is this market open to more than just JSN? Is CMC the NFL Shohei Ohtani? I make the case in this week’s Extra Point: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-15-parlay-picks-predictions