Heat vs. Kings NBA PRO Report: Smart Money Targeting The Under In Sacramento

Heat vs. Kings NBA PRO Report: Smart Money Targeting The Under In Sacramento article feature image
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Adam Pantozzi/Getty Images. Pictured: Kendrick Nunn (left) and Serge Ibaka (right)

  • Miami draws a matchup with Sacramento at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday night in a battle between struggling squads.
  • The public is backing the over, which has driven the total from 224 to 227.5 since open.
  • However, as Michael Walton details in Thursday's NBA PRO Report, the smart money is on the Under. Find out why below:

NBA Odds: Heat vs. Kings

Heat Odds -1
Kings Odds +1
Over/Under
226.5
Time | Channel 10 p.m. ET | SUN

The Miami Heat head to Sacramento to take on the Kings in an East vs. West matchup featuring two struggling squads.

The Heat have lost three straight games, including Wednesday night’s overtime loss to the Warriors.

Miami is still operating without guard Goran Dragic due to an ankle injury.  The loss is apparent, as the Heat have been one of the worst offenses in the league as of late.

Over the last three games, the Heat have an offensive rating of 105.5, making them the 26th ranked offense in the league over this stretch per  NBA Advanced Stats. Miami’s inability to produce points has put a lot more stress on its usually solid defense.

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The Sacramento Kings have lost four straight games, though two of those games were against some of the best teams in the league in the Sixers and Nets.

The Kings are still targeting a playoff spot and are only 2.5 games back from the No. 8 seed as of Thursday morning.

Miami’s defense could prove to be a massive challenge for the Kings, who are without forwards Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes due to injury. When healthy, Barnes and Holmes combined to average 28.6 points per game (PPG) for Sacramento. This could make the under the correct play, an idea supported by our PRO Report.

NBA Picks: Heat vs. Kings

Sharp Action

The total for Thursday’s Heat-Kings opened at 224. The over has attracted majority of the bets so far, which has pushed the total up to 227.5.

Despite the large share of bettors taking the over, there have been two Action Labs’ Bet Signals since this morning indicating sharp action on the under.

Big Money

At the time of this writing, the 23% of bettors taking the under have produced an astounding 79% of the money wagered on Thursday’s Kings-Heat total.

PRO Report Pick: Under 227.5

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