Wizards vs. Hawks NBA Odds & Picks: Washington Will Cool Down Against Atlanta (Wednesday, May 12)

Wizards vs. Hawks NBA Odds & Picks: Washington Will Cool Down Against Atlanta (Wednesday, May 12) article feature image
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Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Trae Young #11 of the Atlanta Hawks.

  • The Hawks held off a fierce fourth-quarter comeback by the Wizards on Monday to win by one point, 125 to 124.
  • Washington and Atlanta run it back on Wednesday in a rematch between Eastern Conference NBA Playoffs hopefuls.
  • Betting analyst Kenny Ducey breaks down the odds for Wizards vs. Hawks and explains why he's backing Atlanta to cover against Washington and its red-hot backcourt.

Wizards vs. Hawks Odds

Wizards Odds +6.5
Hawks Odds -6.5
Moneyline +210 / -255
Over/Under 240
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds as of Wednesday morning and via FanDuel.

Atlanta defeated Washington in a thrilling one-point victory on Monday. Now, it’s time for the rematch.

This time around, the Hawks will strive for a healthy cushion over the Wizards while comfortably keeping pace with the Knicks in the race for the fourth spot in the East.

Washington counters with its lethal offense, but is it a lock to stay this lethal, considering its gaudy shooting numbers in Monday’s game?

Let’s dig into the numbers and find some value in this one.


Washington Wizards

The Wizards are holding on for dear life to the final spot in the Eastern Conference NBA Playoffs play-in tournament. However, life has become a bit easier with the 11th-place Bulls failing to get into the race.

That may be the reason why Washington has covered in just one of the last three after previously covering in five straight. Although, the Wizards’ recent performance against the Hawks exemplified the team’s incredible resilience. Washington rallied from a 16-point deficit to challenge Atlanta in the fourth quarter, but Washington ultimately fell by one point at the final buzzer.

The Hawks and Wizards combined for 249 points in Monday’s game, going over the game total in the process. Washington has now hit the over in six consecutive games, and nine of the last 11. Only four teams in the league have played at a faster pace than the Wizards over the past 10 games, and only one team — Portland — can lay claim to a better offensive rating.

I doubt that many fans or bettors had faith in this squad making the postseason months ago. But, Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal have taken the Wizards to new heights due to their heroic efforts.

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Atlanta Hawks

The games still very much matter for the Hawks, even with a NBA Playoffs berth virtually guaranteed at this point. Atlanta is in a tight battle with the Knicks for the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference, which would give them home-court advantage in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.

The Hawks’ injury report is relatively quiet. Tony Snell is questionable with Achilles soreness but has been on the injury report a lot lately. De’Andre Hunter has been ruled out, and Kevin Huerter is expected to play.

In Monday’s matchup between these two teams, the Hawks withstood a 50% 3-point shooting night from the Wizards, while pouring in just 33.3% of their own looks from deep. Atlanta also out-rebounded Washington by 13, exercising plenty of dominance on the glass. Monday’s game had no business being as close as it was, save for a massive fourth-quarter performance by the Wizards to outscore the Hawks by 16 points.

The Hawks rank 12th in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage, while the Wizards sit 24th. Over the past 10 games, it’s been the Hawks to shoot it better from downtown as well. It’s fair to assume some regression is in order for Washington.


Wizards-Hawks Pick

On the surface, you’d think these two sides would play another close game due to the Wizards’ insane run of against-the-spread (ATS) wins to get to this point. However, I’m inclined to privilege the larger sample size of the three quarters in which Atlanta dominated Washington as opposed to the one quarter in which the Wizards shredded the Hawks.

Washington’s should see some regression from 3 against this defense. Furthermore, Atlanta should maintain its edge on the glass: The Hawks have been the second-best rebounding team over the past 10 games. Atlanta has an edge in pretty much in every facet of the game, so I have faith in the Hawks to cover this number.

Pick: Hawks -6.5 (-108)

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