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About six months ago, I took a trip to Vegas with a couple of my college friends. For a couple of them, it was their first time in Vegas, and by the end of the weekend, they were in love with speculating on sports and playing craps. So much so, in fact, that one bought the felt from an old craps table online and another handy friend built a table.

We decided Saturday would be a fun night to have a bunch of degenerates over, play craps, and watch the NCAA Tournament. It was the perfect setting to watch a No. 16 seed take down a No. 1 seed, although I’ll admit I’m still jealous some of my fellow Action Networkers were actually in Vegas to witness one of the greatest sports moments of our lives.

Anyway, the field has shifted quite a bit, so it’s only natural that we would re-simulate the tournament and see which teams have moved the most in terms of Sweet 16, Final Four, and championship odds. Without further ado, here are the updated probabilities for those futures:

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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