Thursday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Loving Conference Tourney Unders
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Sharp bettors cleaned up on Wednesday. They went 3-1 with totals and cashed a massive Iowa State cover (24% bets, 40% dollars, +6 to +5) over Texas. But the past is the past. New day. New opportunities. Win, lose or draw, wiseguys live by the Jay-Z code: on to the next one.
After examining all percentages and line movement for Thursday’s massive 54-game slate, here are five college basketball bets that professional players are focusing on today, including games that start at 5:30, 6:00, 8:30, 9:00 and 11:30 p.m. ET.
All data as of 3:30 p.m. ET
Cal State Bakersfield-Utah Valley Under 128
5:30 p.m. ET
Sharps are all over this Under. They steamed it three separate times at 5Dimes (something I’ve never seen before). These moves are epic for two reasons. First, the sharps at 5Dimes have a sixth sense when it comes to college hoops totals (they’ve gone 663-536, 55.3%, producing an astounding +65.8 units won this season).
Second, they kept steaming the Under even though the line got worse (Under 133, Under 130, Under 129), an indication that they really love it.
NC Central-Savannah State Under 169.5
6:00 p.m. ET
Sharps and squares seem to be on the same page for this total. It opened at 172 and wiseguys at 5Dimes immediately steamed the Under. Even though the total got worse, sharps hit it again at Under 170 at Pinnacle. This is notable because 5Dimes and Pinnacle are two of your sharpest offshore books and they’re in agreement.
Central Arkansas-Stephen F. Austin Under 155.5
8:30 p.m. ET
Public bettors are torn on this total, but not the sharps. Over/Under bets are split 50/50, yet the total has fallen from 157.5 to 155.5 since opening. In a vacuum, a total shouldn’t move an inch if the bets are split.
The movement was caused by smart money coming in on the Under. Wiseguys at BetOnline steamed the Under 156.5 and sharps at SBG triggered a reverse line move on the Under 157. The BetOnline move is most notable. It’s up +40.7 units this season.
Akron-Eastern Michigan Under 132
9:00 p.m. ET
Sharps have been all over this Under from the get-go. First the sharps at BetUS crushed Under 134. Then a short time afterward the big dogs at 5Dimes got in on the fun and steamed the Under 133. The total is down to 132 across the market. Bookmaker is more bullish on the Under. They’re down to 131.5, which is significant considering they are one of the sharpest offshore books.
Cal Poly SLO-Cal Santa Barbara Under 140
11:30 p.m. ET
Sharps are staying up late and rooting for missed baskets and shot clock violations in this under-the-radar tourney game. The total opened at 142 and has fallen to 140 despite relatively even bet percentages. What caused this movement? A pair of steam moves on the Under 142 at Pinnacle and Under 141 at Bovada.
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
The Pro membership also gives you a fully-customizable live odds page with lines from 50+ books, the number of bets on every game, best bet picks, steam and reverse line moves, Sharp Action Report, weather, injuries, line watcher, line predictor and more.
If you have any questions about Sports Insights, the Betting Hangouts, or betting concepts in general, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights
Cover Photo via Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: The Stephen F. Austin bench celebrates during a recent game against Missouri