Wednesday’s Sharp Report: Wiseguys Fading Top-Ranked CBB Teams
Don’t have time to follow the betting market 24/7? That’s why we’re here. We’re just like that degenerate buddy of yours — except we actually know what we’re talking about.
Let’s dig in to tonight’s college hoops slate, using our real-time betting data to decipher what the sharps are betting, why the lines moved, and more.
All info as of 5 p.m. ET
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 80% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line fall from Duke -8 to -6.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
Five games the wiseguys are betting in college hoops
Virginia at Florida State (+2.5)
7:00 p.m. ET
Give the public a highly-ranked team with a small spread, and they’ll hammer it every time — no matter the locale. In the most heavily bet game of the night, No. 2 Virginia is getting 73% of bets, but it only accounts for 56% of dollars, a sign of predominantly Average Joe money. Meanwhile, we’ve seen the line fall from Cavs -3 to -2.5. Why would the books drop the number when the public is already all over Virginia? Because big sharp action came in on the Seminoles.