Wednesday’s Sharp Report: Wiseguys Fading Top-Ranked CBB Teams
Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
Don’t have time to follow the betting market 24/7? That’s why we’re here. We’re just like that degenerate buddy of yours — except we actually know what we’re talking about.
Let’s dig in to tonight’s college hoops slate, using our real-time betting data to decipher what the sharps are betting, why the lines moved, and more.
All info as of 5 p.m. ET
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 80% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line fall from Duke -8 to -6.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
Five games the wiseguys are betting in college hoops
Virginia at Florida State (+2.5)
7:00 p.m. ET
Give the public a highly-ranked team with a small spread, and they’ll hammer it every time — no matter the locale. In the most heavily bet game of the night, No. 2 Virginia is getting 73% of bets, but it only accounts for 56% of dollars, a sign of predominantly Average Joe money. Meanwhile, we’ve seen the line fall from Cavs -3 to -2.5. Why would the books drop the number when the public is already all over Virginia? Because big sharp action came in on the Seminoles.
St John’s (+16) at Villanova
7:00 p.m. ET
The Red Storm pulled off a massive upset over Duke recently, but the public still doesn’t believe in them. The sharps do, however. St. John’s is only getting 25% of bets (but 29% of dollars) and the line has moved in their favor (+17 to +16). This reverse line movement is evidence of smart money getting down on the big road dog. Can the Johnnies pull off another upset? Unlikely. But the wiseguys like them to cover the big number.
Bradley at Northern Iowa (-3.5)
8:00 p.m. ET
Public bettors always look at won-loss records. Bradley is 17-8, while Northern Iowa is 11-13. So of course the Average Joes are pounding Bradley plus the points (76% of tickets). However, sharps are fading the trendy dog. UNI is only getting 24% of bets but 33% of dollars (+9% discrepancy), and we’ve seen the line move from -3 to -3.5 since opening. Our line predictor expects further reverse line movement to -4.
Georgia (+4) at Vanderbilt
8:30 p.m. ET
The public likes home favorite Vandy to win by 5 or more, but the sharps disagree. Georgia is only getting 35% of bets but it accounts for 60% of dollars — a massive discrepancy indicating big sharp money. While much of the market opened Vandy -3.5 and moved to -4, we’re seeing a “line freeze” at Bookmaker, a large sharp offshore sportsbook. Bookmaker opened Vandy -3.5 and remains at -3.5. This indicates liability on Georgia, meaning they are reluctant to hand out the extra half point to sharp Dawg bettors.
NC State at Virginia Tech (-6)
9:00 p.m. ET
Sharps like the home-favorite Hokies tonight. They’re only getting 37% of bets but 66% of dollars, indicating that the bigger, sharper wagers are on Virginia Tech, while the five-dollar Average Joes are grabbing NC State and the points. Using our Sports Insights software, we saw a steam move on Virginia Tech -5 at BetUS. This means that sharps who have an account at BetUS got down hard on the Hokies, causing the entire market to move from -5 to -6. The fact that the line moved toward Virginia Tech, despite only getting 40% of bets, is evidence of sharp reverse line movement as well.
Other teams receiving sharp action tonight
- Saint Louis (40% of bets, +7.5 to +6)
- Cal (27% of bets, +10.5 to +10)
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Cover photo via Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports