We believe in a contrarian betting approach. Why? Because more often than not, the public loses. Sure, they’ll win a few games here and there. They may even go on an epic week-long run. But over the course of the long haul, the house always wins. If it were as simple as betting every favorite, home team and over, Average Joes would be millionaires and Vegas would go bankrupt.

 

By going contrarian (which typically means taking teams receiving less than 40% of bets), we are able to capitalize on public bias, place ourselves on the side of the house and take advantage of artificially inflated numbers. What exactly is an inflated number? Basically, it’s when lopsided public betting pushes the line further toward the favorite, giving contrarian bettors “free points” to go the other way and grab the dog at a better number.

Previous research has shown that this strategy is profitable in NBA betting and that got me thinking. If inflated lines work for NBA, do they work for the NCAA Tournament?

You better believe it.

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