The Most Underseeded, Overseeded Teams in the Big Dance
It’s finally here, and we made it through whatever that selection show was. We had some big surprises with the at-large bids, specifically with Arizona State, Syracuse, Notre Dame, USC and Saint Mary’s. Arizona State was +270 right before the show to make it, and ‘Cuse was an unreal -1625 favorite to miss and somehow made it in.
On that note, let’s take a look at the most underseeded and overseeded teams in the tournament.
To put some data behind this study, I projected every team’s seed based on Ken Pomeroy’s Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM) score. The top four teams in the nation in that regard — Virginia, Villanova, Duke and Cincinnati — have a projected seed of No. 1. The next four teams — Purdue, Michigan State, North Carolina and Gonzaga — have a projected seed of No. 2. You get the point: By noting the differences between projected and actual seed, we can get a good, quick gauge on which teams are underseeded and overseeded and, thus, which teams might be overvalued or undervalued by recreational bettors who arbitrarily pick their brackets by seeding instead of actual, you know, analytics.
Here’s a table of that data: