College Basketball Betting System: When to Bet Bad ATS Teams


David Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jaycee Hillsman (25) guard Illinois State

  • Illinois State (6-15 ATS) takes on Missouri State (12-8-1 ATS) on Wednesday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
  • Using Bet Labs, we explain why there is value betting bad ATS teams against good ATS teams.

Public bettors tend to wager on teams that have been covering the spread and fade those that haven’t. It is a basic human nature to believe that something will continue to happen because it has in the recent past.

However, oddsmakers understand these tendencies and shade their lines to force square bettors to take bad numbers.

Since 2005, teams with bad against the spread (ATS) records that have covered in 33% or fewer of games have been good bets against teams with winning ATS records.

Those squads with bad ATS records have gone 1,694-1,368-68 (55.3%) ATS, according to our data Bet Labs.

A $100 bettor following this system would have returned a profit of $22,959.

Not only is this system simple, but it has been a consistent winner, returning a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons.

On Wednesday, Illinois State travels to Springfield to take on Missouri State (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+). Illinois State is 6-15 ATS and the Bears are 12-8-1 ATS. Illinois State +6 is a match for this system.

Wednesday Game Matches

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  • Evansville +4 vs. So. Illinois (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
  • Providence +1 vs. Creighton (7 p.m. ET)
  • Samford +5.5 vs. Western Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
  • Illinois State +6 at Missouri State (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
  • CS Fullerton +1 vs. UC Riverside (10 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
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