CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting USC-Washington, 2 Other Wednesday Games
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jaylen Nowell
- Wiseguys are betting three college basketball games on Wednesday, headlined by Marquette-Butler (6:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1).
- Sharps are also getting down on Villanova-Depaul (8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network) and USC-Washington (11 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game.
Texas came up bigly for the wiseguys last night, upsetting Kansas, 73-63. Unfortunately, the same could not be said for Nebraska and Ohio State. Overall, the public took the wiseguys to the cleaners, as favorites went an absurd 14-4 (77.8%) against the spread (ATS).
The pros will look to rebound on Wednesday, knowing that epic public nights are typically followed by big regression.
After analyzing Wednesdays 53-game college hoops slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games that pros are targeting, with start times of 6:30 p.m., 8 p.m. and 11 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Marquette @ Butler
6:30 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Sharp angle: Butler (stayed at -2.5)
Marquette (18-3, ranked No. 10 overall) is getting points against unranked Butler (12-9). You have got to be kidding me! Golden Eagles all day. Put your entire bankroll on it. Lock it up.
Not so fast, say the sharps.
This Big East showdown opened with Butler listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Nearly 80% of bets are grabbing the points with Marquette, yet the line has remained frozen at Butler -2.5.
The fact that this heavily lopsided betting hasn’t dropped Butler to -2 or -1 is a clear indication that the books have liability on the Bulldogs. They simply will not hand out a better number to wiseguys looking to bet Butler at a reduced price.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed a sharp reverse line move on Butler -2.5. The Bulldogs also enjoy a profitable smart money discrepancy, as they’re getting only 24% of bets but 41% of dollars, further evidence of pros fading the trendy dog.
Villanova @ Depaul
8 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Network
Sharp angle: Depaul (moved from +7 to +6)
One of the easiest ways to spot sharp action is to compare the percentage of bets to the percentage of dollars. Professional players typically bet large amounts on games. So if a team is getting a low bets but higher dollars bet split, that’s a great indication that the pros are in its favor.
This game is a perfect example.
Villanova (16-4, ranked No. 14 overall) is receiving 85% of bets, making it the most popular public play of the night. However, Nova is receiving only 33% of dollars, which means it is backed almost purely by Average Joes laying $5 a pop.
Meanwhile, Depaul (11-8, unranked) is getting only 15% of bets but 67% of dollars, as sharp of a bets v.s dollars split as you’ll ever see.
This overload of smart money has dropped the Blue Demons from +7 to +6 since opening.
Depaul is also in a profitable historical spot, as it fits the Bet Labs PRO system Fade The Public in Big Conferences (57.1% ATS since 2005).
USC @ Washington
11 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Sharp angle: USC (moved from +8 to +7)
Goodfellas are staying up late to sweat the Trojans (12-8, unranked) in this Pac-12 after dark matchup.
Washington (16-4, unranked) opened as an 8-point home favorite. Despite 73% of bets laying the points, the Huskies have fallen from -8 to -7. Some books are even touching -6.5.
Early this morning, wiseguys hammered USC +8, triggering market-wide reverse line movement toward the road dog.
The Trojans are receiving only 27% of bets but 72% of dollars, a clear sign that the big professional wagers are in their favor. This massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy makes them a match for a top Bet Labs PRO system: Money Disparity Causes Line Move (57.1% ATS since 2005).