CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Oregon-Baylor, 3 Other Friday Games
Oregon Ducks forward Paul White and center Bol Bol. Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
- Pro bettors are getting down on four college basketball games Friday night, headlined by Oregon-Baylor (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
- Sharps are also betting UC Irvine-Butler (6:30 p.m. ET), East Tennessee State-Wyoming (7 p.m. ET) and Mississippi-Middle Tennessee State (8 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools at The Action Network, we analyze how wiseguys are betting all four games.
Sharps swung and missed on their two Thursday plays, failing to cash the James Madison-Fordham Over and Utah State spread. Pros don’t sweat a losing night. Sure, it hurts. But there will always be ups and downs.
That’s part of the game. The key is staying the course and sticking to the blueprint, always.
Tonight, wiseguys will look to bounce back and capitalize on a massive 32-game slate.
After consulting the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified four games that pros are betting on Friday night, with games starting at 6:30 p.m. ET, 7 p.m. ET and 8 p.m. ET.
>> All odds as of 3 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Cal Irvine at Butler
6:30 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 132.5 to 135)
We’re seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes disagreement with this over/under.
The total opened 132.5. Currently 54% of bets are on the Under, but the total has risen 2.5 points to 135. In a vacuum, a total should fall if the majority of bets are on the under.
What caused this contrarian Over reverse line movement?
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves on the Over. Wiseguys hit the Over 132, Over 132.5 and Over 133.5.
The Over is only getting 46% of bets but 66% of dollars, further evidence of wiseguys banking on a higher-scoring game.
Oregon at Baylor
7 p.m. ET | ESPN 2
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 131 to 128.5)
Over the years, Oregon has gained a reputation of being a high-scoring, high-flying offensive juggernaut (this year the Ducks are averaging 75.27 points per game).
So why did the oddsmakers set this total so low? If it looks too good to be true, it always is.
The over/under opened at 131. Despite bets being split 50/50, more than 75% of dollars are taking the under. This massive bets vs. dollars split is a clear indication of the bigger, sharper wagers taking the under.
We tracked three separate steam and reverse line moves on the under: first at Under 132, then Under 131 and then again at Under 129. The fact that sharps kept hitting the under despite the line getting worse signals supreme wiseguy confidence in a low-scoring game.
East Tennessee State vs Wyoming
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 142 to 139)
Recreational bettors tend to focus on marquee matchups between big-name teams and games that are on TV. But sharps will bet any game on the board, no matter how unknown or under the radar, as long as it has value.
This total opened at 142. Currently 59% of bets and 70% of dollars are taking the under. At first glance, it seems like the Under is a “public” play with 59% taking the Under.
However, this game is very low bet and no Average Joes are on it, so that 59% is most likely coming from pro players.
We tracked three different steam and reverse line moves on the Under. Sharps crushed the Under 142.5 twice and the came back at Under 140.
A cherry on top: This game is being played on a neutral court. Since 2005, neutral court unders have hit at a 54% clip and produced +109.56 units won, according to our Bet Labs data.
Mississippi vs Middle Tennessee State
8 p.m. ET | Facebook Live
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 146 to 144)
Average Joes don’t know which way to go with this neutral court under. But wiseguys have taken a clear side.
The total opened at a moderately-high 146. Currently 54% of bets are going Under but it also accounts for a whopping 94% of dollars. This signals heavy wiseguy money on a low-scoring game.
We noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves on Under 146.5, Under 146 and Under 145.5. This overload of smart money forced the books to adjust the total down to 144.
This game is also being played on a neutral court, making wiseguys even more confident in the under.