CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Yale-Harvard, Maryland-Wisconsin Friday Night
Wisconsin Badgers guard D’Mitrik Trive and forward Charles Thomas IV. Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on two College Basketball games Friday night, headlined by Maryland-Wisconsin (9 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1).
- Sharps are also betting Yale-Harvard (7 p.m. ET on ESPNU).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting both games.
Wiseguys continued to exploit their “high total, under” edge last night, cashing both the Drexel-William & Mary under and the Gonzaga-BYU under. With Super Bowl Sunday just two days away, sharps will look to stack a few more units betting on college hoops so they can have more ammunition to hit the big game and countless prop bets.
After analyzing Friday’s short 13-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified two games that pros are targeting, with start times of 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Yale @ Harvard
7 p.m. ET | ESPNU
Sharp angle: Harvard (pick’em to -1)
The sharpest wiseguys set their own lines. They’ll run their internal numbers and come up with a spread, then compare that number to what the sportsbooks are offering.
If they notice a valuable discrepancy, they’ll pounce. If not, they’ll lay off or wait until the public moves the number closer to their perceived correct price.
This Ivy League spread is a perfect example.
Harvard (8-7) opened as a short 1.5-point home favorite against Yale (12-3). Wiseguys knew that the public would bet on Yale because of its superior won-loss record. So pros waited until the line dropped to get the Crimson at a better price.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed a pair of steam and reverse line moves on Harvard once it fell from -1.5 to a pick’em. This overload of smart money moved the Crimson back to -1.
The Crimson are receiving only 36% of bets but 51% of dollars, further evidence of sharps siding with the home team.
Maryland @ Wisconsin
9 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 131 to 130)
It’s a misconception that sharps and squares (casual bettors who bet for fun) are always on opposite sides. While somewhat rare, it does happen from time to time.
Generally speaking, wiseguys prefer to bet against the public, knowing that more often the public loses and the house always wins. However, they won’t cut off their nose to spite their face. If they happen to be in agreement with Average Joes, they won’t lay off just to be prideful and stubborn.
Take this Big Ten total for example. It opened at a relatively low 131. Early over betting pushed the line up two points. That’s when sharps got down hard on the Under at an inflated 133, triggering a pair of steam moves across the market.
Wiseguys continued to get down on the Under 131, triggering a third steam move that dropped the line to 130.