Iowa vs. Michigan State College Basketball Odds & Pick: Projections, Sharps, Systems Point To Spartans
Matthew Holst/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Bohannon and Rocket Watts
- Public bettors are all over Iowa, but all our PRO Report signals are lighting up on the other side.
- The Hawkeyes have lost four of their last six and may be slightly overvalued against a struggling Michigan State team.
- Danny Donahue breaks down the value indicators below and explains what that means for Saturday's Big Ten showdown.
Iowa vs. Michigan State Odds
|Michigan State Odds||+5|
|PRO Projection||IOWA -3.2|
|Time||2:30 p.m. ET|
It’s not often that Iowa travels to East Lansing and remains the side giving points on the spread. In fact it’s happened exactly zero times in our Action Labs database (which goes back to 2005).
The Hawkeyes opened as 5-point favorites for this afternoon’s meeting, and have sniffed the 5.5-point mark since, but are they the right play tonight?
According to our PRO Report feature, the answer is about as clear as it gets.
Note: Odds, data as of 8 a.m. ET.
Iowa vs. Michigan State Pick
It’s all coming up Sparty this morning, as the early sharp action aligns with the rest of our value-seeking tools, as well as our college hoops experts.
Even though they’re laying five points, most bettors thus far have still been happy to take the Hawkeyes. For a short time, that led to a -5.5 spread, but sharps didn’t let that last.
Their action triggered an Action Labs Bet Signal (an indicator of pro action) as they hit Michigan State to bring the line back to its opener. Now, some shops are even heading in the other direction, sending Sparty to +4.5.
Sharp Action edge: Michigan State
Another sign of that professional action comes via the difference between ticket and money percentages. In this case, the 43% backing of Michigan State has generated 81% of the money hitting this spread.
Of course, that creates a bit of a financial liability for sportsbooks, but perhaps more importantly, it reveals that the Spartans are landing much bigger bets — the ones more likely to be made by sharps.
Big Money edge: Michigan State
Michigan State comes into this game having covered just four of its 17 games. And while that may not inspire confidence against an Iowa team with a more solid 11-9 record against the spread, it actually suggests the Spartans could be undervalued, historically speaking.
In fact, it fits them into our Poor ATS vs. Good ATS Teams PRO System, which has returned a 55% cover rate on a sample of more than 3,400 games since 2005.
PRO Systems edge: Michigan State
For the sharps (and a historically profitable system) to be thinking there’s value on this side, they must also see the spread as being a bit off — and our model agrees.
It projects the true spread at Iowa -3.2, leaving a bit of Michigan State value on the table at the current price.
Model Projections edge: Michigan State
One of our top college basketball betting experts has already hopped on the Michigan State train, and it’s certainly possible that more could be joining.
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Top Experts edge: Michigan State