Franklin’s SEC Tournament Cheat Sheet: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not, and Who I’m Picking to Win

The Southeastern Conference Tournament kicks off Wednesday night in Nashville, the official home of country music, hot chicken, bachelorette parties and more bachelorette parties. But for five long days this week, basketball will take center stage in the Music City as the 14 teams of the SEC battle it out in Bridgestone Arena for the coveted SEC Tournament trophy.

As The Action Network’s resident SEC basketball expert and new contributor to its college basketball coverage, I’m here to get you ready for all of the exciting SEC basketball in the days ahead.

Now, many of you may be asking yourselves: Who are you and/or why should I listen to you? It’s a fair question, one I will happily explain before we get started.

This will be my ninth year covering the SEC Tournament for Kentucky Sports Radio (known to many across the Internet as KSR). That grueling assignment involves writing about the tournament for KentuckySportsRadio.com and doing live remote radio and television shows from Nashville, all while staying out until the wee hours of the morning on Broadway only to wake up early to do it all again.

I’m also the rare defender of the tournament’s Wednesday night session, which features the four worst teams in the conference playing in front of a small crowd of friends and family members and people who wandered in off the street by accident — and me, the only person there on purpose without a relative on any of the teams. I’m unapologetic in my love of SEC Tournament basketball at all levels.

So now that we've got all that out of the way, allow me to catch you up to speed on the teams of the tournament. Let's begin with a Who’s Hot/Who’s Not breakdown of the field to better prepare you for your gambling endeavors related to the tournament, should you decide to participate in such activity.

HOT

Tennessee

Tennessee may have lost its last game of the regular season, but the Vols enter the SEC Tournament hotter than the three-piece platter at Hattie B’s in Midtown. Prior to dropping the finale at Auburn in the final minute, No. 3-seed Tennessee beat fellow conference runner-up Kentucky and Mississippi State by a combined 36 points in Knoxville.

Tennessee finished the regular season with 27 wins, the Player of the Year in Grant Williams, and is now the second betting favorite to win the SEC Tournament at +200. On top of all that, the veteran Vols will be out for revenge after losing to Kentucky in last year’s championship game.

Kentucky

Kentucky is hitting its stride as the season winds down, as is tradition with John Calipari-coached teams. The status of starting forward Reid Travis is still uncertain, but the Cats won four of five without him to end the regular season, the only loss coming at Tennessee, a game Kentucky was never going to win without Travis’ physicality inside.

If you’re looking for my pick to win the whole thing, Kentucky is it (the odds are just shy of +200 last I checked). I think the tournament will be decided when Kentucky and Tennessee meet for a rubber match in the second Saturday semifinal, and with Tennessee playing on very short rest after a very late Friday evening game, I give Kentucky the slight edge (assuming Travis returns).

If the seeds were reversed, I would say the same of Tennessee. That game is going to be a war and I think the winner will take care of whatever team is waiting in the title game on Sunday, assuming Saturday’s game doesn’t kill whichever team advances.

Auburn

Since losing at Kentucky by about a million in late February, Auburn won four straight games to close the year, including a regular season-ending defeat of Tennessee in a game the Vols needed to win to clinch a share of the league title.

Bruce Pearl’s team is a group that loves to shoot the long ball (Auburn is ranked seventh nationally in 3-point field goal attempts) and can beat any team in the field when the shots are falling. The Tigers average more than 11 three-pointers per game, good enough for fifth in the country in that category.

On top of its shooting prowess, Auburn hasn’t won an SEC Tournament game in three years, so basic logic says it is due for a run. The Tigers were upset last year as the No. 1 seed.

LSU

LSU is the SEC’s regular season champ and the No. 1 seed in the tournament after the Tigers posted their best conference record since the 1980-81 season (even better than the Shaq days). However, LSU enters the tournament down one head coach, one starting guard who averages 11.5 points per game and might’ve been paid to play, and one starting forward who averages 13.3 points and 6.9 rebounds per game (although he could return).

Given that recent roster and staff shakeup, LSU should fall in the Who’s Not category, but a team with only two conference losses by a combined three points is as Hot as anyone, no matter the circumstances.

That being said, I’ll probably bet against LSU in its first game in the Friday quarterfinal against the Arkansas/Florida winner. The wheels eventually have to fall off with the pay-for-play sideshow going on around the Buy-You Bengals.

Ole Miss

One year removed from a five-win conference record in 2017-18, Ole Miss turned things around this season under new head coach Kermit Davis, your SEC Coach of the Year. The Rebels went 10-8 in league play and 20-11 overall after being picked to finish dead last in the conference in the preseason.

And don’t let those three straight losses at the end of the year scare you — the losses were to Tennessee, Kentucky and at Arkansas by a combined seven points. Ole Miss can play.

Arkansas

The Razorbacks dropped six straight games in the month of February, but the month of February is behind us and Arkansas is riding a three-game win streak into the postseason. I won’t say Arkansas is scorching hot, but it is playing some of its best basketball right now.

South Carolina

Like Arkansas, I’m not ready to say South Carolina is burning bright as it makes it way to Nashville, but it is hotter than it is not. South Carolina won its last two games by a combined 37 points to clinch the tournament’s No. 4 seed and the important double bye in the tourney.

NOT

Vanderbilt

How bad is Vanderbilt? The Commodores were the first team in the history of the Southeastern Conference to go 0-18 in league play in the regular season. Please do not bet on Vanderbilt. I’m begging you. We just met and I’m not ready to watch you suffer. Vanderbilt is horrible.

But if you must have action on Vanderbilt-Texas A&M in the late game Wednesday night, may I recommend the under? It’s no fun, I know, but the under is on a nine-game streak in Vanderbilt games because the Commodores are just that bad.

Adding to the under trend in that game, Texas A&M games went under the point total in four of its last five games to close out the regular season. We could be in for a very low scoring output to close out the first session. The two teams combined for only 121 points (a game only a Big Ten fan can love) in a regular season meeting on March 2.

Alabama

If you’re looking for a team that’s good at covering the spread, Alabama ain’t it. Bama is 1-7 against the spread in its past eight games and is currently riding an 0-3 streak against the spread (and straight up) to end the season.

That being said, Alabama is a bubble team playing for its NCAA tournament life, so you could see a motivated bunch when the Crimson Tide meet No. 7-seed Ole Miss in the first game of the Thursday night session. Avery Johnson needs a good SEC Tournament run or he might be out of a job before he leaves Nashville. Tootsie’s could always use another doorman.

Georgia

Tom Crean enters his first SEC Tournament with a Georgia team that lost its final two games of the regular season by a combined 45 points to a not-so-good Missouri team and a not-so-good South Carolina team. Georgia managed to score only 39 and 46 points in those two losses as the Bulldogs ended the regular season losing 11 of 12.

Georgia will lead off the SEC Tournament in the first Wednesday night game with a rematch against Missouri, which held Georgia to only 14 points in the first half in Athens only one week ago.

Florida

How do you lose to Georgia at home? Ask Florida. The Gators got beat by the Dawgs (Georgia’s only league win after beating Vandy in January) in Gainesville as an 11-point favorite less than two weeks ago, sparking a three-game losing streak to end the year.

From a betting standpoint, you should know Florida covered the spread only three times in its final 14 games.

Texas A&M

I honestly forgot Texas A&M had a basketball team this season. Seriously, if you asked me to tell you one thing about the current Texas A&M team, I might be able to name one player (I think there is a guy named Flagg) and that’s it. Sorry. I could lie to you to try to make myself look good, but honesty is the best policy. And I just Googled Texas A&M’s roster to find that, yes, Flagg is a real person and he is second on the team in scoring.

Will Wade

It wasn’t all that long ago when Will Wade was a national Coach of the Year candidate and one of the hottest names in the business, having upset Kentucky in Lexington as part of LSU’s first SEC regular season championship in a decade.

Now, Wade has been suspended as LSU’s head coach after he declined to meet with university officials about reports of a pay-for-play scandal involving LSU freshman guard Javonte Smart, and he’s unlikely to survive once the wiretaps go public in an FBI trial later this spring.

Nobody has gone from Hot to Not Hot as fast as Wade. If there were a way to bet on his coaching career going down in flames, take all of my money.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to see the bright Honky Tonk lights of Nashville, which will literally take all of my money.