Betting LSU-Florida: Which Situational Spot Can You Trust?

Betting LSU-Florida: Which Situational Spot Can You Trust? article feature image

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Darius Days and Emmitt Williams

Just two ranked teams are in action on Wednesday’s college basketball card, including No. 10 LSU traveling to unranked Florida for a critical SEC rematch.

The Tigers (24-5, 14-2) fell to the Gators (17-12, 9-7) in an overtime loss on Feb. 20, which was a part of Florida’s five-game winning streak. Not only does LSU have a revenge spot in this go-around, but Mike White squad’s is set up for a bounce-back opportunity after losing to Georgia on Saturday.

Beyond gunning for vengeance, there’s still plenty on the line for Will Wade’s squad. The Tigers would likely wrap up the SEC regular season title with a win, as they have Vanderbilt up next in their regular season finale.

On the flip side, a Gators’ victory on senior night would be their ninth Quad 1 or 2 win. It would aid their NCAA tournament resume as a result — listed as a No. 10 seed across numerous bracket projections.

Where’s the value in this contest? Let’s break it down.

>> All odds as of Tuesday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NCAAB odds and live win probabilities on your bets.

Betting Odds: LSU Tigers at Florida Gators

  • Spread: Florida -1
  • Over/Under: 137.5
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN2

The Tigers (16-11-1 against the spread) have covered in six of their past eight games, ignoring the conventional letdown spots. Meanwhile, the Gators (12-17 ATS) are a mere 1-11 ATS at home this season, per our Bet Labs data.

Although Florida owns the 59th-highest 3-point scoring rate (36.8%) in the country, it’s tallying a below-average 33.8% from behind the arc. White’s crew had an above average performance in their last meeting with LSU, shooting 36.7% from the perimeter, including a 5-of-9 showing (55.6%) from KeVaughn Allen.

Expect some negative regression in their rematch, especially with revenge on the Tigers’ minds. They’re yielding the third-lowest 3-point clip (32.5%) in SEC play, led by Skylar Mays and Co.’s stellar on-ball defense.

At the other end, LSU should control the glass via its league-leading 37.8% offensive rebounding rate, as Florida has generated the third-lowest clip (33.5%) in that department. Naz Reid and Kavell Bigby-Williams combined for 10 of their 18 offensive boards in their latest matchup, but the Tigers just weren’t as efficient inside the arc as usual.

LSU has dominated the paint in league play with the third-highest 2-point scoring rate (51.7%). The Gators are allowing the fourth-highest scoring percentage (50.7%) from that vicinity, so it’s set up for the Tigers to bounce back in Gainesville, especially if Tremont Waters plays up to his potential.

The 5-foot-11 point guard was bothered by Florida’s lengthy backcourt, going 1-of-4 from the field with three turnovers. Wade noted he won’t be on a minute restriction following the Tigers’ five-point win at Alabama on Saturday, as he missed the previous two games with an illness.

Waters is at his best while attacking the rim and setting up his teammates (34.0% assist rate). Given the Gators’ leaky interior defense, he’ll find more holes to zip through than the last meeting.

I’d lean towards the under if you’re interested in the total. The two programs combined for 128 points in regulation during their first meeting, and three of LSU’s four road games that hit the over went to overtime. The Tigers’ typically low-scoring affairs are a product of their 48th-ranked Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (97.2 opponents’ points per 100 possessions).

Expect LSU to snag a win ATS in this spot, with more than a claw-full to play for. It’s 5-1-1 (83.3%) ATS on the road in league play, too.


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