NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulations Reveal 6 Prop Bets With Value

NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulations Reveal 6 Prop Bets With Value article feature image

William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas Jayhawks guard Quentin Grimes

  • The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas is offering some prop bets for the 2019 NCAA Tournament.
  • Using the Bracket Simulator, we crunched the numbers to determine which props bets are offering value.

When filling out brackets and betting games aren’t enough, gamblers turn to prop bets. The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas is offering a variety of proposition wagers for March Madness, from which conference will win the national championship to Kansas’ odds of reaching the Sweet 16.

Using the Bracket Simulator, we’ve crunched the numbers to find value in these NCAA Tournament prop bets.

Will a 1-seed win the tournament?

  • Yes -150
  • No +130

Since the tournament expanded in 1985, 20 of the 34 (58.8%) champions have been 1-seeds, and a top seed has cut down the nets in nine of the past 12 (75.0%) tournaments.

Combined, Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga and North Carolina win the 2019 NCAA Tournament 66.4% of the time. At -150 odds, the implied probability of a 1-seed winning it all is 60.0%. Based on the difference in projected chance and implied probability, there is value betting “Yes.”

Total 1-seeds to reach the Final Four?

  • Over 1.5: -180
  • Under 1.5: +150

On average, there have been 1.65 1-seeds in the Final Four since 1985. According to our model, the probability of two or more 1-seeds reaching the Final Four is 69.7%. The implied probability at -180 odds is 64.3%.

History and math point to betting the over 1.5.

Will a 2-seed win the tournament?

  • Yes +300
  • No -400

Kentucky is the most likely 2-seed to be left standing with a 9.1% chance of winning March Madness. Michigan State has a 6.8% chance, Tennessee 4.7% and Michigan 4.6% of being crowned champions. Combined there is a 25.2% chance a 2-seed comes out on top.

Bettors are getting even money betting “Yes” +300, the implied probability is 25.0%.

Total 2-seeds to reach the Final Four?

  • Over 1: +280
  • Under 1: -360
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