Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma Odds

Oklahoma State makes the short trip to visit Oklahoma for the first Phillips 66 Bedlam showdown of the year.

This will be the 241st meeting between these two programs in a rivalry that goes back to 1908.

Oklahoma was hitting its stride to end January beating Kansas, Texas, and Alabama in a three-game stretch. The Sooners have struggled over the last week, squeaking by Iowa State and then losing to Kansas State, 62-57, Tuesday night. The loss to Kansas State was the Sooners' first midweek game since Feb. 1, and they looked lackadaisical at times

Oklahoma State is 8-6 in Big 12 play and is one game back of the Sooners in the standings. It has strung together three wins in a row, most recently an overtime victory over Texas Tech.

The Cowboys look to be rolling just at the right time as they end the season with two games against Oklahoma and then have to travel to Baylor and West Virginia.

The stage is set for these two teams to add another chapter to a historic rivalry.

When Oklahoma State Has the Ball

The Cowboys find themselves at 15-6 on the year and 8-6 in conference play with four tough games to end the season. Oklahoma State is beginning to play some of the best basketball they’ve seen all season long just at the right time.  

Coach Mike Boynton has been mixing up his lineup as of late, often bringing out an all-guard lineup, forcing opponents to try and adjust. Even with this methodology, the Pokes are the top rebounding team in the Big 12 and are averaging 38.7 points in the paint. They’re the only team in the conference that has six players who average 9.0 points, which provides scoring threats all over the court. 

Leading those guards is potential No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft Cade Cunningham. He’s a 6-foot-8 point guard who is averaging 18.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game. He scored 20 points last time out in the win against Texas Tech on 8-of-13 shooting from the field. 

Oklahoma State plays with the fastest tempo in the Big 12 but its bread-and-butter has been on the defensive end.

It holds the No. 1 defensive effective field goal percentage holding opponents to 45.7% from the field. In addition, it's also the best at defending the 3-point line forcing oppositions to convert at just a 30.7% clip.

That stat line should only improve against the Sooners, who are making just 30.9% of their 3s in conference play. This is an all-around strong Oklahoma State team that has the potential to make some major noise in the tournament in March. 

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When Oklahoma Has the Ball

Oklahoma was rolling through the first two months of the season and was ranked inside the top 10 to end January.

Since then, the Sooners are 3-2, including two wins over Iowa State and a double OT win over West Virginia. The Sooners' success seems to be correlated with the success of 6-foot-9 forward Brady Manek.

Manek is a senior who has been a great secondary scoring option for OU throughout his tenure. Through the first month of the season, Manek was averaging 16.7 points and hitting 45.0% from 3-point range.

Since Manek returned from catching COVID-19, he has averaged just 6.7 points and hit 24.5% of his 3-pointers.

He still looks to be trying to be recovering from the symptoms of the virus that has left his play — and the play of Oklahoma — lagging. Manek didn’t attempt a field goal in the final 16 minutes in the loss to Kansas State, and if OU wants to be a contender, it will need him to be more aggressive on the offensive end. 

Austin Reaves has attempted to pick up the slack with Manek’s struggles, averaging 17.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists. Through the first 12 games this season, Reaves was averaging 15.2 points per game, but over the last six games, he has averaged 21.3 points. 

Lon Kruger's squad is one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the country. It takes care of the basketball, only turning the ball over on 15.1% of its offensive possessions. Defensively, it sends teams to the free-throw line less than anyone in the Big 12. 

Of the team's shot attempts, 39.2% come from behind the arc, where it converts 30.9% of the time. That approach could be costly against the Cowboys, who defend the deep ball better than anyone in the conference. 

Betting Analysis & Pick

These are two teams that are heading in opposite directions.

Oklahoma State is beginning to peak at just the right time, while Oklahoma has been struggling over the last few games. While Manek is still trying to get back into form, he will need to provide a few strong games before I can trust this OU team. 

Oklahoma is going to struggle with the various rotations and mismatch opportunities that Boynton will throw at it. Oklahoma shoots the 3-ball at such a high percentage, and that will play right into the hands of OSU. 

I’m backing Oklahoma State as a five-point underdog in a game that I believe it will win outright.

Pick: Oklahoma State +5 (down to +4).