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Oregon vs. Oregon State Odds, Picks, Predictions: Beavers Have Dominated Civil War at Home

Oregon vs. Oregon State Odds, Picks, Predictions: Beavers Have Dominated Civil War at Home article feature image

Steve Dykes/Getty Images. Pictured: Payton Pritchard

It’s hard to believe, but Dana Altman is now in his 10th season as the Oregon Ducks head coach. After a decade in Eugene, Altman is still a coin flip as a road favorite, posting a 19-18-1 record ATS. He also hasn’t covered at Oregon State in five years.

Is there any value in backing the Ducks in this spot, or will Oregon State’s offensive firepower be enough to tip the scales in the Beavers’ favor?

Here’s my take on the first battle in this year’s Civil War.

Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

Oregon at Oregon State Odds

  • Spread: Oregon-3
  • Over/Under: 140.5
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: Pac-12 Network

After writing up Penn-Columbia yesterday, a game that was ultimately postponed due to inclement weather, I got to thinking about scheduling quirks.

The Ivy League is famous for its Friday-Saturday back-to-backs. The Pac-12 also likes to bundle its road trips, but prefers Thursday-Saturday or Thursday-Sunday combinations. Each member of the conference also enjoys at least one week during conference play in which they play a single game.

Both the Ducks and the Beavers have enjoyed a week off, with Oregon hoping to rebound from a shocking 10-point loss in Palo Alto and Oregon State still licking its wounds after a two-point loss at Cal.

Under Altman, Oregon is 14-18 ATS as a favorite in Pac-12 play when rested (6+ days). Oregon State, on the other hand, is 13-11 ATS as an underdog in the same situation under head coach Wayne Tinkle.

On its own, that situational information isn’t meaningful enough to sway the public’s opinion.

But when you combine Altman’s track record coming off a weeklong layoff with the Ducks’ ATS record on the road in Pac-12 play this season (2-4), you get the sense that laying three points in this spot may be too many.

In the Ducks last five trips to Corvallis, they’re 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS. That includes Oregon teams that have gone on to the Sweet 16, Elite Eight and Final Four. The Beavers, 8-3 at home this season, just seem to have the Ducks number at Gill Coliseum.

On the court, the Ducks, a legitimate Final Four contender, have a single Achilles Heel — rebounding. Oregon’s defensive rebounding percentage is atrocious for an elite team (71.5%, 271st). Oregon State is regularly bullied in the paint, but that won’t be a problem here against an Oregon team that can, at times, be soft on the inside.

When the Beavers have limited their turnovers and kept pace in the rebounding department, they’ve proven their ceiling in marquee wins over Colorado and Arizona.

Look for an inspired effort from a Beaver team in desperate need of a signature win.

Pick: Oregon State +3

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