The Most Overseeded, Underseeded Teams in the 2019 NCAA Tournament

March Madness is here, and after a whole year of waiting we finally have our 68 teams. Ah, the smell of freshly printed brackets.

Before you fill 'em out, though, let's look at the data to see which teams are the most underseeded and overseeded according to our proprietary college basketball power ratings, made by former oddsmaker Sean Koerner.

This is an interesting exercise because the NCAA selection committee doesn't operate solely by numbers. It looks more at records and résumés rather than "who would win on a neutral court." It's a fine way to select a field, but it also provides some inefficiencies to exploit.

The process is pretty easy: Using our power ratings, I have calculated what seed each team should get. I did that for all teams in college basketball (fourth column) and just the teams in the tournament (sixth column). The difference columns represent how off the projected and actual seeds are.

Most Overseeded, Underseeded Teams in the 2019 NCAA Tournament

Overseeded Teams

No. 11 Temple

The Owls were the 3-seed in the American Athletic Conference's tournament, losing in the quarterfinals to 6-seed Wichita State. They finished the year 23-9 with a mostly uninspiring résumé.

They played just seven games all year against teams in the top 50 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric, going 2-5 in that sample. Their two wins were against 15th-ranked Houston and 46th-ranked UCF.

They do some things well, notably winning turnover battles: The Owls are 22nd in offensive turnover rate and 55th on the defensive end. But their overall metrics just aren't as strong as those we usually see from a typical 11-seed. Based on our power ratings, we are projecting them to lose in the play-in game to Belmont.

No. 7 Wofford

This is probably a bit surprising since Wofford has been a favorite of hoops fans all year as an underrated mid-major team that could make a Sweet 16 run. And while the Terriers' power rating of 35 is still strong, it's more befitting of a team in the 10- or 11-seed range instead of a No. 7.

The Terriers are an impressive 29-4 on the year, although they haven't had a real signature win yet. They played four teams in KenPom's top 50 (UNC, Oklahoma, Kansas and Mississippi State), losing all of them. It should be noted, however, that they played against all of these teams except for UNC on the road.

When it comes to Wofford, our power ratings differ from KenPom's metrics. He has the Terriers as the 19th-best team in the field; our power ratings have them ranked 43rd. As a result, we would have them as a double-digit seed.

But in the first round they match up against 11-seed Seton Hall, another team quite overseeded according to our metrics. Our numbers have the Terriers favored by a point.

No. 8 VCU

The Rams, perhaps still getting residual respect for their Final Four run years ago, are seeded eighth despite having a power rating of a double-digit team.

They finished the year 25-7 but had a pretty easy schedule. They played just two teams in KenPom's top 50, losing to Virginia and beating Texas. They finished the season losing in their conference tourney to a middling 18-15 Rhode Island team that didn't make the Big Dance.

VCU is an intriguing team: It has very strong strengths and weak weaknesses. The Rams rank seventh in the country in defensive efficiency, third in opponent eFG% and ninth in turnover rate. They could give some teams issues.

However, the offense leaves a lot to be desired, ranking 172nd in the country. They turn the ball over and are a poor shooting team. We're currently projecting them to lose their first-round matchup against 9-seed UCF.

Underseeded Teams

No. 10 Florida

Our power ratings have the Gators tied for 28th in the field — ahead of teams like 7-seed Cincinnati and Wofford. Their 37 rating, in fact, is similar to the marks of a couple 5-seeds in Mississippi State and Marquette. And yet the committee gave them a double-digit seed.

The reason is likely their record, as they went just 19-15 on the season, although that was largely due to a tough schedule. They did have some impressive wins, notably beating LSU in two of three games, including in the SEC tournament. A lot of their losses — to really good teams, mind you, like Michigan State, Tennessee, Auburn and Kentucky — were all very close.

The Gators own a top-15 defense and a very good adjusted efficiency margin, which is a good sign for their chances of advancing in the Big Dance. Our numbers would have them more like a 7-seed. Unfortunately for them, they're facing a Nevada team in the first round that is also underseeded.

No. 5 Auburn

Our power ratings have the Tigers as a borderline top-10 squad, and yet they find themselves a 5-seed. Most analysts thought they might move up after dominating Tennessee to win the SEC conference title, but that did not happen.

The Tigers finished the year on an eight-game winning streak with wins over Tennessee (twice), Florida and Mississippi State in that sample. They don't have any amazingly terrible losses, and they notably kept the game close on a neutral court against Duke to start the year.

They have a top-10 offense and rank first in the nation in defensive turnover rate — two very positive indicators. Our power ratings currently give them an 81.7% chance to make it out of the first round, and they could be a trendy bracket pick to upset UNC in the Sweet 16.

No. 7 Louisville

The Cardinals finished the year 20-13 overall and 10-8 in an ACC conference that boasts three teams as 1-seeds. They had some questionable losses, notably to Boston College and Pittsburgh, but they also had impressive wins over Michigan State, UNC and Virginia Tech. In their only game against Duke, they lost by a single field goal.

Their overall metrics are impressive, sitting in the top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They're great at getting to the line and have an underrated defense that ranks top-20 in effective field goal percentage allowed.

You get the picture: They're a very good team and more worthy of a 5-seed than a 7-seed. They have a tough draw in Duke and Michigan State's bracket, although they have beaten and played those squads close this year. Our power ratings give Louisville a 64% chance to make it to the second round.