Penn State vs. Purdue Odds & Betting System Pick: Beware of Popular Underdogs

Penn State vs. Purdue Odds & Betting System Pick: Beware of Popular Underdogs article feature image
Credit:

Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Stevens

  • Updated odds for Penn State vs. Purdue list the Boilermakers as a 5-point betting favorite at Mackey Arena on Tuesday night.
  • The Nittany Lions have won six straight games, their longest-ever winning streak in the Big Ten, and have garnered more than 70% of the bets as a result.
  • Should you fade the trendy underdog or pick Penn State to keep it going? Our Bet Labs data weighs in.

Penn State vs. Purdue Odds


Penn State vs. Purdue odds as of Tuesday at 12 p.m. ET and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


Penn State is up to No. 13 in the AP Poll, a height it hasn’t reached since the mid-1990s. And the Nittany Lions are getting historic betting support on Tuesday night at Purdue as a result.

Penn State has received 72% of betting tickets as a 5-point underdog as of noon ET, marking just the third time since 2005 that it’s gotten more than 70% of bets as a dog.

The other two times? As a 19-point underdog at eventual national runner-up Wisconsin in 2014, and at Illinois as an 8-point dog in 2008.

So is it wise to keep backing Penn State, winners of six straight? Let’s ask our Bet Labs database for an answer.

Backing trendy public underdogs has not been a profitable endeavor. Road underdogs in conference games receiving more than 70% of bets have covered just 45.6% of those games over the last 10 years.

In Bet Labs, you can setup a system and then fade it, which is how we get a 54% winning percentage.

In heavily-bet games — like Penn State vs. Purdue, which has attracted more bets than any game on Tuesday’s slate — those trendy dogs have covered just 40.4% of the time.

Big Ten teams have been dynamite at home in conference play this season, going 48-34-4 against the spread and covering by an average of 2.55 points per game.

This point spread hasn’t moved much — DraftKings opened -4.5 and moved to -5 quickly. The total has seen much more drastic movement, opening at 132 and reaching 136 on Tuesday afternoon.

Purdue’s offense has found its stride lately, averaging at least 1.0 points per possession in five of its last six games. The Boilermakers had reached that mark only nine times in 18 games prior to this stretch.

[In Pennsylvania, NJ or Indiana? Bet Penn State-Purdue now at FanDuel.]

How would you rate this article?