Texas Tech vs. Texas Odds & Pick: How to Bet the Over/Under on Wednesday (Jan. 13)
Photo by David K Purdy/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Beard
- Two high-flying college basketball offenses meet in Baton Rouge on Wednesday as Arkansas battles LSU.
- Star freshman Cam Thomas could be out with an ankle injury, and his absence would be tough for the Tigers to overcome.
- BJ Cunningham breaks down how to bet this game based on Thomas' status.
Texas Tech vs. Texas Odds
A top-15 showdown takes place in Austin tonight as No. 15 Texas Tech battles No. 4 Texas.
So far, Texas Tech has won the games it was supposed to and struggled against tougher opposition. Only two of its 10 wins have come against teams currently inside KenPom‘s Top 100.
Texas is still perfect in the Big 12 after a win over West Virginia that featured an ending you have to see to believe.
ANDREW JONES. CLUTCH. 🥶
No. 4 Texas defeats No. 14 West Virginia in a comeback thriller! pic.twitter.com/Bmhe6f9mPZ
— ESPN (@espn) January 9, 2021
A 10-1 start to the season has plenty of people counting Texas as a contender. Will the Red Raiders stop the Longhorns in their tracks?
When Texas Tech has the ball
For the Red Raiders to be successful on offense, they need to feast on second-chance points and getting to the free-throw line because they are simply a mediocre shooting team.
Texas Tech rates out as average in effective field percentage, 2-point percentage and 3-point percentage. That said, the Red Raiders do like to get the ball inside, as they attempt 3-pointers on only 32.3% of their field goal attempts.
The main reason Texas Tech has been successful on offense is that it rarely turns the ball over (16.3% turnover rate), and it gets to the charity stripe more than any team in the Big 12 at over 45%.
Not only are the Raiders getting to the free-throw line at a ridiculous rate, but they’re making over 77% of their free throws in Big 12 contests.
The Longhorns counter with a top-five defense in terms of efficiency, per KenPom. They are the No. 1 team in the Big 12 in effective field goal percentage allowed and are holding their opponents under 44% from inside the arc.
The discrepancy in height is an interesting wrinkle in this matchup. Texas Tech does not have anyone over 6-foot-7, so it will be forced to play small ball. Against West Virginia, Shaka Smart left Jericho Sims and Greg Brown on the floor despite the fact that Bob Huggins went with a small lineup for most of the game.
The question is whether or not Smart will stick with the same strategy on Wednesday.
When Texas has the ball
Because of its height advantage, Texas will likely look to get the ball inside as often as possible. Brown, a freshman, has turned into the Longhorns’ top scoring option, as he has the highest usage rate in the Big 12.
Brown and the Longhorns are scoring 1.09 points per possession in conference play, which is a drastic improvement from last season when they averaged only 0.93 points per possession.
Texas Tech is also one of the best defensive teams in the country because of its pack-line defense, which is only allowing only 44.3% inside the 3-point line. It’s also incredible at forcing turnovers, as it holds the fourth-highest turnover rate in the country, per KenPom.
Where Texas can make hay is beyond the arc, as Texas Tech has allowed Big 12 opponents to shoot 36% from 3-point land.
Texas vs. Texas Tech Best Bet
I think this will be a grind-it-out game played in the half-court since both of these squads play at a below-average tempo.
These are also two of the best defenses in the country, as they both rank inside the top five in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Therefore, I think this will be a really low-scoring battle.
I have only 129.74 points projected for this game, so I think there’s some value on the under at 134.5 points.
Pick: Under 134.5 (down to 133).