College Football Playoff Odds, Picks: The 4 Surprise Teams That Control Their Own CFP Destiny
Getty Images. Pictured (left to right): Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, Oregon State’s DJ Uiagalelei, UNC’s Drake Maye and Missouri’s Luther Burden III.
By the time the final College Football Playoff rankings are released, the sport may have reverted back to its tendency to reward the blue bloods.
After all, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama and Oklahoma have combined to snap up 10 of the last 16 CFP invites. It’s entirely possible that three of those five teams punch tickets again this year, boxing out national upstarts coast-to-coast.
But this wouldn’t be college football without an underdog story, and there are a few teams that have charted an improbable course to the playoff this season.
Who are these surprise teams that are controlling their destiny? Let’s have a look.
All "To Make Playoff Odds" are as of Thursday, Oct. 19, and via FanDuel.
Iowa Hawkeyes (+3200)
24th (AP) · 23rd (Coaches)
We’re eight years removed from the viral hit that was “How To Talk To Your Kids About An Undefeated Iowa.”
That Hawkeye team opened the 2015 season unranked, fresh off of a mediocre 7-6 campaign the previous fall. They then proceeded to reel off 12 straight regular-season wins, including five one-possession victories.
They rose to No. 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings and came up just short in the Big Ten title game, losing to Michigan State, 16-13. Had they won, they would have made the playoff and appeared in the Cotton Bowl.
This is just a reminder that the Big Ten West is capable of sending surprising and seemingly out-of-left-field teams to the College Football Playoff.
But can Iowa climb all the way up to No. 4 in the CFP rankings? Does it have the scheduling ammunition? No, but a shiny Big Ten Championship could be enough to vault the Hawkeyes into the playoff if there's enough upset carnage in the coming weeks.
Iowa has a cakewalk ahead of it, playing three of its final five regular-season games in Iowa City, with one of those coming at neutral-site Wrigley Field against Northwestern.
Only Rutgers has a winning record (5-2) in that five-team grouping. If Rutgers can finish the season at a respectable 7-5, it could join Iowa State, Wisconsin and perhaps Nebraska as bowl-eligible programs that Iowa found a way to beat.
As it stands right now, Iowa has a surprisingly high strength of schedule in the eyes of at least one notable metric (ESPN’s FPI, 16th).
An 11-1 finish would likely it in the 8-to-12 neighborhood of the CFP rankings ahead of the Big Ten title game. If that matchup featured an undefeated opponent like Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State as the nation’s No. 1 team, a win could send the Hawkeyes to the playoff for the first time in program history.
On the field, Iowa is in the conversation as having the nation’s best defense. Both Bill Connelly’s SP+ numbers and the KFord Rankings rank it first overall on that side of the ball. Our internal Action Network metrics point out that the Hawkeyes are the second-best team in limiting explosive plays, and their special teams are unanimously ranked as a top-10 unit.
It will be ugly and it will require turnover luck, but it’s time to acknowledge that Kirk Ferentz’s team has a path, albeit a narrow one, to the College Football Playoff.
Oregon State Beavers (+1600)
12th (AP) · 13th (Coaches)
In the Pac-12’s swan song, it’s interesting to note that the lame-duck conference has an excellent chance to place a team in the CFP for the first time since 2016.
Moreover, it won’t even need its conference champion to be undefeated to get it done. As of today, the league has six teams ranked in both polls. That gives the eventual conference champion plenty of opportunities to impress the committee.
The Beavers already own a pair of ranked victories over Utah and UCLA and have a chance to grab a pair of top-10 wins down the stretch when they host undefeated Washington and travel to play Oregon in an in-state rivalry.
Last season, they shocked Oregon in Corvallis, 38-34, and dropped a heartbreaker to Washington in the closing seconds, 24-21. With a massive upgrade at quarterback, the Beavers are positioned to give both teams a run for their money as single-digit underdogs.
My projections call for Oregon State to be a six-point underdog at home against Washington and a nine-point ‘dog in Eugene against Oregon.
If it was to win both and punch a ticket to the Pac-12 title game in Las Vegas, it'd likely be sitting in the 4-to-6 of the CFP rankings, with another ranked opponent on deck in Oregon, USC or Washington.
Between the white lines, Oregon State has blossomed offensively. With DJ Uiagalelei at quarterback (seventh in QBR), the Beavers are up to 11th in Success Rate while averaging 444 yards (30th) and 38.1 points per game (12th).
Their defense has taken a step back from last season, but they remain a top-40 unit, according to SP+ and KFord. Additionally, they rank in the top 40 of traditional metrics like scoring defense and Havoc.
Trent Bray, Oregon State’s defensive coordinator, cooked up phenomenal game plans last season that held Washington and Oregon below their scoring averages by 16 and five points, respectively.
Knocking off Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix in consecutive weeks would be the kind of splashy wins that the committee would have no choice but to reward.
North Carolina Tar Heels (+600)
10th (AP) · 10th (Coaches)
If the thought of an anemic offense playing for a national title has you bummed out, allow the Tar Heels to be a palate cleanser.
Drake Maye pilots a well-balanced attack that's averaging over 500 yards (8th) and 37.3 points per game (15th).
And now they’ve added Tez Walker into the mix. The Kent State transfer has 12 receptions and three touchdowns in two games since being released from NCAA limbo. This offense has the potential to join the ranks of the elite with the new Maye-Walker connection humming along.
The bigger story, arguably, has been the UNC defense. Last season, this unit was beyond awful. The Tar Heels finished 116th in total defense, 102nd in scoring and gave up 72 plays of 20 yards or more (114th).
This season, they’ve improved by leaps and bounds in every one of those categories, moving up to 55th in total defense, 42nd in scoring and 59th in terms of plays surrendered of over 20 yards. They create Havoc defensively (22nd) and win the turnover battle (+1 PPG, ninth). This is a recipe for success.
And then there’s the schedule. North Carolina is set to play three of its next four at home against a variety pack of cupcakes in Virginia, Georgia Tech and Campbell — plus a Duke team that's severely limited offensively without a healthy Riley Leonard.
Yes, there's a looming trip to Death Valley, a place it hasn’t won at since 2001. But Clemson is no longer the conference juggernaut it once was.
And keep in mind Mack Brown and his team avoid Florida State and upstart Louisville in the regular season.
All in all, this schedule couldn’t be more workable if it tried. My projections call for the Heels to be a 7.5-point underdog to Florida State in a potential ACC title game matchup, but keep in mind that the game will be played in Charlotte in front of a partisan crowd.
According to the ESPN College Football Playoff Predictor, if UNC were to win out and take home the ACC title, its playoff chances would sit at 80%. I think that’s far too low considering an undefeated Power 5 team has never been left out of the College Football Playoff.
Missouri Tigers (+3900)
20th (AP) · 20th (Coaches)
It will be interesting to see how the committee views Mizzou as opposed to the two national polls because the Tigers’ résumé appears to be stronger than where they’re currently ranked.
A pair of ranked wins over Kansas State and Kentucky, as well as a neutral-site victory over Memphis, place them in striking distance of a CFP invite because of their looming opportunities.
Traveling to Athens to play Georgia in two weeks couldn’t come at a better time. The Bulldogs will be without All-American tight end Brock Bowers (ankle) and have looked mortal with sleepy starts against South Carolina and Auburn. Bowers bailed them out in both games, exploding in the second half of both contests.
If Mizzou were to shock the Bulldogs — which would snap UGA’s 24-game winning streak (assuming it beats Florida) — it would likely vault into the top 10, if not six. Then, a pair of home tilts with Tennessee and Florida would stand between the Tigers and a trip to Atlanta for the SEC title game.
At that point, Mizzou would already likely be in the committee’s top four, but it would need to win the SEC title as well to secure a berth in the national semifinals.
Beating three highly-ranked opponents, including the two-time defending national champions, is an absurdly tall task, but there are reasons to believe the Tigers could hang with all three of those foes.
Georgia is lacking the knockout punch it's had offensively in recent years, ranking a shocking 105th in explosiveness. It has also taken a baby step back on defense, falling from the ranks of the truly elite into the teens as a unit.
Without Bowers, UGA profiles as a borderline top-five team and not an unsinkable juggernaut.
Mizzou’s passing attack remains a major storyline in the SEC this season because no one had a “Brady Cook Breakout Season” square on their bingo card.
As a dink-and-dunk passer last season, Cook relied more on his legs to hurt opposing defenses. This season, his completion percentage has shot up from 64.8% to 71%, and his yards per attempt has jumped from 7.2 to 9.4.
A big reason for that has been his receiving corps, headlined by midseason All-American Luther Burden III.
The Tigers have the ninth-rated passing attack in terms of Success Rate, and Cook has thrown for over 340 yards and multiple scores in four of his last five games.
Add in a defense that's up to 33rd in Success Rate, and you start to understand why they’re going to be a tough out down the stretch in the SEC East.
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