Welcome to Week 6.
Our staff has spent all week creating the best college football gambling content in the industry.
Here's our favorite pieces, bets, and college football picks for the Noon slate on Saturday, October 4.
College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 12 p.m. | |
 | Noon | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Collin's Card: Noon Best Bet
Without Dontay Corleone on the defensive line, the Cyclones' offense could wreak havoc at the line of scrimmage with heavy 12- and 13-personnel packages.
The Jayhawks had a 62% Success Rate on 26 rushing attempts against Cincinnati without Corleone. Iowa State could achieve a similar Success Rate depending on the status of the Bearcats' best player.
The more identifiable deliverable in this game is what the Cincinnati offense can produce against the Iowa State defense. The Bearcats have already faced two Power Four nickel package defenses in Nebraska and Kansas.
Brendan Sorsby has dominated quarters coverage this season with a 64% Success Rate and an explosive play on one of every three attempts.
Considering Iowa State doesn't produce a pass rush, Cincinnati should continue to have success through the air, given it ranks in the top 30 nationally in Passing Downs EPA.
The rushing attack is the difference in the game, as the Cyclones struggle to defend inside and outside zone read concepts. Iowa State has posted a poor 41% Success Rate or worse against zone read, along with poor national rankings in defensive rush efficiency, Line Yards, and Stuff Rate.
Cincinnati has created quality drives on offense at a top-20 national rate and is entering this home game at Nippert Stadium as the sixth-best overall team in Finishing Drives.
Read Collin's entire Iowa State-Cincinnati breakdown and more in his full Week 6 column:
Pick: Cincinnati TT Over 27.5 (-115, bet365)
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Stuckey's Spots: Noon Best Bet
By Stuckey
This is the most obvious situational spot on the board, with the Illini finding themselves in a potential flat spot following two extremely emotional games against ranked opponents (Indiana and USC).
Oh, and did I mention this will be their sixth straight game without a break, and they have Ohio State coming to Champaign next Saturday?
Meanwhile, Purdue will come in as the much fresher team following its bye week, which should prove even more valuable for a team with an entirely new roster and coaching staff. Those two weeks should do wonders from a preparation perspective.
For what it's worth, Illinois found itself in a similar spot last season against Purdue in a game sandwiched between four ranked matchups.
The Illini had to survive a two-point conversion attempt in a 50-49 overtime win against a completely incompetent Boilermaker bunch that finished with one win in 2024. And Illinois played that game at home following a bye week.
This Purdue team is obviously significantly improved under head coach Barry Odom, who can thank quarterback Ryan Browne for playing at an extremely high level over the first month of the season.
The Boilermakers should be able to move the ball against an Illinois defense that still has some holes, especially without the services of star cornerback Xavier Scott.
The Illini have been quite fortunate since the start of last season, so maybe we see some of that overdue regression. So far this season, they have gone 5-of-5 on fourth downs with a +5 turnover margin, while Purdue sits at -5.
It's also worth noting that both teams have played similarly challenging schedules and are only separated by 0.1 net yards per play, with the Boilermakers possessing a higher quality drive rate.
Yes, Illinois did look great last week, but it also caught USC in a nightmare travel spot with an 11 a.m. local kick following the latest start time the previous Saturday.
Don't forget this team got completely pantsed the week prior against an Indiana team that easily could have lost at Iowa last week.
I expect this Battle for the Cannon (where the underdog has gone 12-6 ATS since 2005) to remain competitive throughout, so I'll happily take the points in a fantastic spot.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 6 situational spots here:
Pick: Purdue +9.5 (-110, bet365)
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Ianniello's Group of Five Pick
This bet is simple.
Since 2005, the Under in games between Service Academies is 46-12-1 (79.6%). During that stretch, 26 games have closed with a total over 50. The under is 20-5-1 (80%) in those contests.
You can sit here and tell me that Air Force ranks second nationally in Success Rate on offense and that Navy ranks sixth in Success Rate. Both of these offenses are averaging more than seven yards per play.
However, all of those statistics have been compiled against teams that do not practice against the Triple Option daily. Both teams have had success against teams that struggle to stop this offense.
That will not be the case on Saturday.
Navy averages 54.5 rushing attempts per game, and Air Force averages 50.3. The clock will run continuously throughout the game.
The biggest weakness for both teams is their pass defenses, but that won’t matter in this game, as the ball will likely remain on the ground all day.
Don’t overthink it. You have to throw out the statistics against opponents that aren’t other Service Academies and trust these teams know how to stop each other, because they always do.
Check out Ianniello's entire Group of 5 Card for Week 6:
Pick: Under 52 (-110, bet365)
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Ziefel's Top Player Prop For Noon
By Doug Ziefel
Not only is T.J. Moore one of my favorite targets for the slate, but he may have become Cade Klubnik's favorite target as well.
The Tigers have a significant edge in the passing game against the very weak Tar Heel secondary.
Additionally, Clemson has demonstrated its ability to attack with tempo and a high volume of passes, as the Tigers have thrown the ball nearly 60% of the time.
Two weeks ago, against Syracuse, Klubnik did everything he could to get the ball to Moore, as he was targeted 17 times and hauled eight of those targets.
Back him to build on that performance as the market hasn't adjusted to Moore's bigger role in what is an even better matchup this week.
Pick: T.J. Moore Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
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Our Featured Bet Labs System
This game triggered one of our Action Labs PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Unranked teams playing ranked teams — when garnering less than 40% of the betting tickets in the months of August, September or October — tend to hang around for the first 30 minutes.
Over the past two decades, teams that fit this system are 684-59-28 against the first-half spread, generating 46 units of profit at a 3.5% ROI.
Even better, teams that fit this system are 9-3 against the first-half spread this season.
Pick: Wisconsin 1H +9.5 (-110, bet365)
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Duck's Full Action App Card
Need more picks for Week 6? It's always wise to see what our guy Duck is betting on in the Action Network App!
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the free award-winning Action Network App to track all your bets and tail all of your favorite experts:
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