April may be a long way away, but with the college football regular season winding down, NFL Draft season is upon us. Many of college football's top prospects will begin preparing for the draft as soon as the regular season ends, perhaps even sacrificing postseason play to do so.
Prediction market Kalshi has odds posted for the most likely players to be picked first overall, with a couple of quarterbacks atop the spread-out odds table.
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#1 Overall Pick Odds, Predictions
Odds are via Kalshi and update every hour.
No. 1 Overall Pick Background, Favorites
Who will be picking #1 overall?
The NFL is one of the few leagues left that doesn't do any sort of draft lottery. The worst team, by record, gets the first pick, the second-worst gets the second pick, and so on and so forth. That makes it a bit easier to predict who will be picking first, which then helps to identify the biggest areas of need out of the outgoing college player pool.
The number one need of most moribund NFL teams is almost always a quarterback, hence why so many of them tend to go in the first few picks, regardless of how strong the class is. Looking at the bottom of the NFL standings, we see many teams without a clear path forward under center; the Jets, Raiders, Saints, and perhaps even the Cardinals could be looking for a new signal caller. Only the Titans, who drafted Cam Ward first overall last year, and the Giants, who look to have found their stud QB in Jaxson Dart, could look to improve at another position.
With all of that in consideration, let's take a look at some of the names who could be first off the board on April 23.
Fernando Mendoza No. 1 Pick Odds
Is there a better way to cap off a college football career than taking home the Heisman Trophy and then getting your name called first on draft night? Probably not. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza might be uniquely positioned to answer that question because, with each passing game, he seems more and more likely to pull it off.
After two very good — but not remarkable — seasons at Cal, Mendoza has taken the Big Ten by storm, leading one of college football's strongest conferences in passing touchdowns and yards per attempt. More importantly, he's led the Hoosiers to an 11-0 record and a likely College Football Playoff berth, helping the program continue to build its reputation in year two of the Curt Cignetti experience.
This year's quarterback class isn't particularly strong, but that makes Mendoza an even more coveted asset at the top end of the draft. For struggling teams looking for their quarterback of the future, Mendoza should be the guy.
Ty Simpson No. 1 Pick Odds
Right behind Mendoza in Kalshi's odds table is fellow quarterback Ty Simpson. The Alabama signal caller has been the focal point of head coach Kalen DeBoer's air raid offense in Tuscaloosa, throwing the ball more and completing more passes than any other quarterback in his conference.
While Simpson certainly has the volume of a productive college quarterback, he doesn't touch Mendoza in terms of accuracy or passer rating, nor does he have the same ability to run the ball when he gets in trouble. Still, in DeBoer's offense, Simpson has led the Tide to an 8-2 record, which should land them a spot in the CFP.
For an NFL team looking to run a similar offense to DeBoer's at Alabama, Simpson could undoubtedly be the answer to their quarterback question.
Kaidon Salter No. 1 Pick Odds
A team looking for more of a dual-threat quarterback could turn to Colorado's Kaidon Salter.
Transferring over from Liberty for the 2025 season, Salter had the tough task of replacing Shedeur Sanders in a program run by Sanders' dad. He's completed over 60% of his passes and has thrown for 10 touchdowns, while also being a threat on the ground with over 10 attempts a game.
As a redshirt senior, Salter's age may come into question, but that shouldn't be a sole detractor for a league that has seen Bo Nix and Jaxson Dart have success when being drafted after their fourth or fifth season of college eligibility.
