The Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) and New England Patriots (14-3) meet in the Wild Card Round tonight. Kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The game will broadcast on NBC and Peacock.
The Patriots are favored by -3.5 on the spread; the game total is 45.5 points. The Patriots are -196 favorites on the moneyline while the Chargers are +166 underdogs.
Let's get into my Chargers vs Patriots prediction for tonight's Wild Card matchup in the NFL playoffs.
Chargers vs Patriots Predictions, Spread Pick
- Chargers vs Patriots pick: Chargers +3.5 (-110)
My Chargers vs Patriots best bet is the Chargers to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Chargers vs Patriots Odds
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +166 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -196 |
Chargers vs Patriots Preview
For starters, I project the Chargers–Patriots spread at close to 2.5, so I happily took 3 and the hook with the road 'dog that should benefit from a quasi Week 18 bye after Jim Harbaugh rested his key starters in Denver in Week 18.
That may have benefited Justin Herbert the most, as the Chargers QB said his hand feels as good as it has since he injured it.
I don't think there's that much of a difference between these teams. If we throw out Week 18, when the Chargers rested their starters, and the Patriots played a Miami squad that rested most of its best players, the Pats ranked 15th in DVOA, while the Chargers ranked 17th.
There are also some key matchup angles that I fancy for the Chargers.
Despite facing a difficult schedule of quarterbacks, the Chargers excelled at limiting explosive plays through the air. That's critical against Drake Maye, who may have the most effective deep ball in the NFL at the moment. L.A. also finished as the only defense in the league to intercept more passes (19) than passing touchdowns allowed (16).
On the other side of the ball, my biggest concern for the Chargers is how their depleted offensive line will hold up in a hostile postseason environment.
Following injuries to stud tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, this group has struggled mightily in every facet and ranked 31st in pressure rate allowed over the second half of the season. However, they won't have the stiffest test against a New England defense that ranks in the bottom five in adjusted pressure rate and had the second-lowest pressure rate when not blitzing since Week 9.
Admittedly, it's difficult to price the Patriots considering they played the easiest schedule of any team this century, setting an NFL record for the number of opponents faced with a losing record.
The Pats faced only one team that finished with a winning record in a split with the Bills. In comparison, the Chargers played six and also drew the Commanders and Colts when fully healthy, without facing really any backup quarterbacks. The same can't be said of New England, which seemingly faced a backup every single week.
Let's exclude home losses to Aaron Rodgers and Geno Smith and focus on the Patriots' 13 other wins besides the Bills. Here are the quarterbacks they defeated:
- Tyler Huntley
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Bryce Young
- Spencer Rattler
- Cam Ward
- Michael Penix Jr.
- Joe Flacco
- Dillon Gabriel
- Baker Mayfield
- Justin Fields
- Quinn Ewers
- Jaxson Dart
- Brady Cook
Essentially, 11 of the Patriots' 14 wins came against either rookies, backups or quarterbacks who eventually got benched.
If you had to start one of the quarterbacks from the list above in a playoff game tomorrow, you'd probably choose Mayfield, who was one of the three worst quarterbacks in the league over the second half of the season, which is when the Patriots played a shorthanded Tampa offense.
Look, Drake Maye has been incredible and is the deserved MVP in my eyes. I can't even point to a single major flaw in his body of work this season outside of some turnover luck (which I'll touch on momentarily), but you can't just ignore the lack of quality defenses on the schedule.
The Chargers defense (which ranked second in EPA over the final 10 weeks) will present the toughest challenge (by far) that Maye has faced this season.
This will also mark Maye's first playoff start, while facing a quarterback in Herbert who has playoff experience under his belt. Historically, that hasn't worked out well for the less experienced signal-caller.
The Patriots also had some good fortune on their side throughout the season.
- Lost only 8-of-20 fumbles while recovering nine of their opponent's 14
- Went 18-for-25 on fourth down (1.3 EPA per Play), while their opponents went 10-for-30 (-0.6 EPA per Play)
- Maye finished with a 31:8 TD:INT ratio despite a 26 BTT-17 TWP ratio. He should have thrown a handful more interceptions. For reference, Herbert finished with 22:15 and 26:13, respectively.
Don't be surprised if an overdue pick or two (and some failed fourth-down attempts) come against the well-schooled Jesse Minter defense.
It's worth mentioning that the Patriots might not be at full strength on defense. They dealt with a number of injuries in the front seven down the stretch, which caused their run defense to crater over the second half of the season.
Wild Card Prediction for Chargers vs Patriots
How do I see this game playing out?
Justin Herbert should have enough time against an impotent Patriots pass rush to move the ball on a vulnerable coverage group.
Meanwhile, the Chargers defense will mix in plenty of different zone looks with a focus on limiting Drake Maye's deep shots, forcing the Patriots to execute in the red zone, which is where the Chargers defense shines.
On the season, L.A. ranks fourth in the NFL with a 45% red-zone TD rate allowed. It finished second in the league last year under Jesse Minter at right around that same rate.
There's also a decent chance the Chargers offense (which has had issues in the red zone) can come away with more 7s than 3s when they get inside the 20 against a Patriots defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in red-zone TD% despite facing the league's easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks.
This one should come down to the wire, so I'll happily take an elite quarterback and staff (with the clearly superior defense and kicker) catching over a field goal in the playoffs against a quarterback making his first career postseason start, especially since I project this at under 3.
Pick: Chargers +3.5 (-110)
Chargers vs Patriots Spread Prediction
As noted above, I'm all over the Chargers at +3.5.
If you need further convincing, here are some trends:
- Herbert has gone 12-2-1 (85.7%) against the spread (ATS) when catching more than a field goal, covering by three points per game on average.
- Herbert and Harbaugh have excelled against the number on the road at 30-17-1 ATS (64%) and 28-18 ATS (60.9%), respectively.
- Herbert is 13-6 ATS (68.4%) as a road underdog.
Moneyline
I have no play for either side of the spread.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
Chargers vs Patriots Betting Trends
Chargers vs Patriots Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. |
| Date: | Sunday, Jan. 11 |
| Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | NBC, Peacock |
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