The 14-team bracket is set and the NFL playoffs are upon us. This year we have three QBs making their first playoff starts, two Super-Bowl winning QBs and one serious longshot with the biggest road spread in playoff history
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's the Wild Card round of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Jan. 6, at 8 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
New Blood
A Different Year
The playoff field got more insane after the Ravens lost to the Steelers on Sunday night…
• One preseason division favorite ended up on top: Eagles — fewest in a season since 2008.
• Two teams w/11+ win totals missed the playoffs (KC, BAL) — 1st time that has happened since 2000.
• Two teams that entered the season with under 10-1 odds to win the Super Bowl out of the playoffs (BAL, KC). First time that has happened since 2017 and sixth time since 2000. It would also be just the 4th time since 2000 that happened for two teams in the same conference: 2017 (SEA/GB), 2014 (NO/SF) and 2001 (TEN/DEN).
The top seeds in the Wild Card round — Panthers, Bears, Jaguars, Eagles, Patriots and Steelers are a combined +6 in all six games on the spread — or an average of +1 per game — that is the largest figure as an underdog since the four Wild Card teams had a +7 back in 2015-16.
Expect the Unexpected
Panthers Sneaking In
The Panthers are under .500. They got into the playoffs on back-to-back losses and now at +10.5 or higher, they are the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history.
• Panthers are in the playoffs after not winning a single game as a favorite during the regular season, the first team to “accomplish” that feat in the Super Bowl era. All 8 of their wins have come as underdogs — their next outright win as a dog would be a record.
• This season, Carolina is 8-0 ATS after a SU loss, covering the spread by 10.4 PPG, the most wins without a loss ATS for any team this season. Since 1990, no team has finished a regular season 8-0 ATS or better after SU loss.
Panthers entered the season at 150-1 to win the Super Bowl — Carolina is the 16th team to enter the playoffs after beginning the year at 150-1 or higher since the schedule moved to 16+ games in 1978. This is the 6th straight season a team at 150-1 or longer made the playoffs: two lost in Wild Card, three lost in Divisional, one lost in Conference Championship and one lost in the Super Bowl.
Opening Act
Rocky Start
This weekend we have some first time playoff quarterbacks in action. QBs making their first playoff start vs QBs who have playoff experience are 20-39-1 ATS (34%) and 20-40 SU since 2002. When those less experienced QBs play at home, which all three are this week, they are 12-21 SU and ATS.
Would apply to three games this weekend:
Bryce Young vs. Matthew Stafford
Caleb Williams vs. Jordan Love
Drake Maye vs. Justin Herbert
Entering The Field
Stay Close
Since 2008, the eventual Super Bowl champion has at least come from the top-8 in Super Bowl odds entering the playoffs each year, including from the top-6 in each of the past 12 seasons. The last team to win outside the top-6 in odds entering the playoffs was the 2012 Ravens.
Here are the teams top-6 in Super Bowl odds entering the playoffs: Seahawks, Rams, Broncos, Eagles, Bills and Patriots.
Over The Radar
Two-Year Stretch
We are just coming off a regular season to remember for overs and for fading the public.
• For the first time since 2010-11, overs went over .500 in consecutive regular seasons and at 52.8% to the over in the regular season since 2024, that is the highest two-year over win pct since that 2010-11 stretch.
• Teams with 60%+ of tickets ATS went 70-102-1 ATS (40.7%) during the regular season this year, worst mark in the 23-year history of the Bet Labs database. Looking back at the four other regular seasons where the public performed terribly — 2022, 2020, 2019, 2013 — teams with 60% tickets went .500 or worse in 3 of those 4 playoff campaigns.
Ring Dogs
Experience Matters
Since 2003, Super Bowl-winning QBs are 64-25-2 ATS (72%) as an underdog in the playoffs. Those QBs are 26-8 ATS (77%) as a dog before winning the ring and 38-17-2 ATS (69.1%) after the ring — incl. 16-5 ATS since 2018 playoffs.
This week, that is Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers.
Outdoor Unders
All Six
This weekend, all six Wild Card games are going to be played in outdoor stadiums. Since 2004, outdoor Wild Card games are 49-23 (68%) to the under.
The over/under in Bills-Jaguars is up to 52.5 this week – highest total on the board. Totals of above 51 in outdoor playoff games are 19-8-1 to the under dating back to 2004, going under the total by 5.2 PPG, including 15-6 to the under at 52.5 or higher.
Need A Win
Long Losing Streak
Steelers haven’t won or covered a playoff game since 2016-17, a 6-game SU/ATS playoff losing streak for Pittsburgh — their longest in franchise history.
Pittsburgh's 6-game SU/ATS losing streak in the playoffs is tied for the 3rd-longest streak in the Super Bowl era.
Steelers have started so slow in recent playoff games. They haven’t scored a single point in the 1st quarter of their last six playoff games, being outscored 73-0 in those six games. Pittsburgh has scored 7 pts or less in 69 consecutive regular season and playoff games dating back to September of 2022.
Dog Eat Dog
Turn Around?
Let's talk dogs in the playoffs. Since 2017, they are 60-38 ATS (61.2%) for a 18.7% ROI. In the Wild Card round, those playoff underdogs are 27-15 ATS (64%) for a 25% ROI, best of any round in that span.
A few trends for the playoffs…
• Underdogs who missed the playoffs the year prior are 41-21 ATS since 2017 (CAR, JAC, SF).
• Teams that become smaller underdogs (+4 to +3) have gone 47-21-2 (69%) ATS since 2003 (none yet).
• Double-digit underdogs are 1-17 SU and 5-13 ATS in the playoffs since 2011. The one upset? Titans over Ravens in 2019-20 (CAR).
• Bigger home underdogs in the playoffs have had success. Home dogs of 4+ pts are 8-0 ATS over the last 50 years (CAR).
• Since 2007, teams with a 75%+ win percentage are 70-92-3 ATS (43%) in the playoffs (JAC), including 51-75-2 ATS (41%) when listed as the favorite (NE).
Every NFL Wild Card Round Game
 |  |   |   |   |   |  |
➤Rams are massive road favorites against the Panthers this weekend. Here are the biggest road favorites in the playoffs in NFL history:
Buccaneers (-10) at Washington, 2020 (W, 31-23)
Saints (-9.5) at Seahawks, 2010 (L, 41-36)
Steelers (-7.5) at Broncos, 2011 (L, 29-23)
Since the 1970 merger, teams to close as a favorite of 4 pts or more on the road in the playoffs are just 1-8 ATS, losing their last 8 games ATS – the last cover came back in 1971 by Johnny Unitas and the Baltimore Colts.
➤Panthers are in the playoffs after not winning a single game as a favorite during the regular season, the first team to “accomplish” that feat in the Super Bowl era. Outside of the 1982 strike-shortened season, the only team to even have six wins or less as a favorite was the 1969 Oilers, who lost their first playoff game 56-7.
Here are the only teams this season without a win SU as a favorite: Panthers, Jets and Titans.
➤The 2025 Panthers are the 5th team since the merger to win their division with a losing record – those teams went 2-2 SU in the Wild Card round, with all four teams failing to make the Conference Championship.
Under .500, Win Division Since Merger
2025 Panthers
2022-23 Buccaneers – Lost (+3) WC SU/ATS
2020-21 Commanders – Lost (+10) WC SU, Won ATS
2014-15 Panthers – Won (-5.5) WC SU/ATS, Lost (+13.5) SU/ATS
2010-11 Seahawks – Won (+9.5) WC SU, Lost (+10) SU/ATS
Panthers enter the playoffs with a -69 point differential this season. They would join a small group of teams to win the division with that bad a point differential:
-50 or More Pt Differential, Division Champs
2010 Seahawks: -97
2011 Broncos: -81
➤Back in Week 14, the Panthers upset the Rams at home in Carolina as 10-pt home underdogs, winning the game 31-28.
Over the last decade, teams to lose to a non-divisional opponent recently (12th game or later) and face them again in the playoffs, are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS, covering the spread by 7.2 PPG.
This will be just the 4th time since division realignment in 2002 where that team who lost recently is a favorite of over a TD (-7.5) or more:
2015-16 Broncos: Won (-7.5), 23-16 vs. Steelers
2009-10 Colts: Won (-8.5), 30-17 vs. Jets
2004-05 Colts: Won (-11), 49-24 vs. Broncos
➤Matthew Stafford has started ten playoff games in his career, he is 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS. In those ten games, he’s only been a favorite three times, with his teams 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS in those games. With Sean McVay as his coach, Stafford is 5-2 SU/ATS in the playoffs.
➤Carolina has had issues scoring this season at times and it shows with their final results.
Panthers are the 5th team in Super Bowl era to make playoffs despite scoring 17 points or fewer 10+ times:
2025 Panthers
2005 Bears – WC
1994 Steelers – CC
1978 Oilers – CC
1978 Eagles – WC
➤Rams under Sean McVay have been dominant road favorites.
They are 34-10 SU and 26-18 ATS as a road favorite with the Rams. When McVay is a road favorite of 3 pts or more, he is 27-6 SU (19-14 ATS) and as a road favorite of above 4 pts, he is 19-2 SU (12-9 ATS).
As a road favorite vs. teams below .500, he is 21-4 SU and 16-9 ATS – his 16-9 ATS mark in that spot is the 2nd-best of 120 head coaches in the last 20 years, behind only Bruce Arians.
➤A theme Carolina probably doesn’t like, but it might be a good thing they are underdogs this week. This season, Panthers are 8-7 SU as underdogs and 0-2 SU as favorites.
All 8 of the Panthers wins this season have come as underdogs — their 8th win as a dog is tied for the most by any team in the Super Bowl era – a record they could break this week.
➤Nobody likes an East Coast trip like Sean McVay. The Rams are 18-11-2 ATS on the road out east under him, covering the spread by 3.1 PPG – but, 2025 hasn’t been as pretty, where L.A. is 1-3 SU/ATS playing on the east coast.
➤This season, Carolina is 8-0 ATS after a SU loss, covering the spread by 10.4 PPG, the most wins without a loss ATS for any team this season. Since 1990, no team has finished a regular season 8-0 ATS or better after SU loss.
➤Bigger home underdogs in the playoffs have had success. Home dogs of 4+ pts are 8-0 ATS over the last 50 years.
Referee Trends and Stats: Clete Blakeman
McVay 1-4 SU since 2022. Stafford 2-4 SU since 2019.
Favorites 11-5 SU this year, 24-9 SU last two seasons
Bryce Young 0-2 SU career. 2-0 under career
Panthers 5-0-2 to under at home
Panthers 1-4 ATS since 2019, 0-1 SU/ATS in playoffs
Panthers 2-5 ATS at home since 2010, 0-3 ATS at home last decade
Stafford 6-2 ATS at home
Underdogs 10-4 ATS in playoffs
Road teams 9-4 ATS in playoffs
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤This is the third time the Packers and Bears will face each other in the playoffs.
2025: Packers at Bears (-1)
2010: Packers at Bears (-3.5) – GB won 21-14
1941: Packers at Bears (-6) – CHI won 33-14
Bears and Packers are the first teams to meet 3 times in December or later, including the playoffs.
➤Packers have lost four straight games to end the regular season for the first time since 1990 and they are just the 4th team to enter the playoffs on a 4+ game SU losing streak with the 2024 Steelers, 1999 Lions and 1986 Jets – none of those teams made the Conference Championship.
Overall, we’ve seen a total of 13 teams in the Super Bowl era have a 4+ game SU losing streak that bled into December or later, and only one made the Conference Championship game – the 2011 Giants, who won it all – 10 of those 13 teams lost in the Wild Card round, while 12 of 13 lost in the Divisional Round or earlier.
➤With the season split, the Bears are now 2-12 SU vs. Packers in their last 14 meetings, including 3-11 ATS in those games.
Since the 2009 season, the Bears have only been favored to beat the Packers five times in a total of 35 meetings, Chicago is just 2-3 SU in those games. Going back to 2008, Chicago is 10-27 ATS vs. Packers.
The Bears haven’t been favored in consecutive games vs. Packers within the same season since 2006 – a streak that could end this week after Chicago was favored vs. Packers back in Week 16.
➤Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons. They are 2-4 ATS vs. NFC North this year, 10-19-1 ATS over the last 5 seasons and 13-27-2 ATS since 2019.
Chicago is 1-2 ATS vs. NFC North at home this season, they haven’t finished above .500 ATS at home vs. NFC North since 2018, since that year they are 5-14-2 ATS at Soldier Field vs. their own division.
➤The Packers ended the regular season at 6-10-1 ATS, the worst of any playoff team in the 14-team field. This is Green Bay’s first season with 10+ ATS losses since 1997.
Here is a list of teams to enter their first playoff game with an ATS win pct below 40% since division realignment in 2002. They went a combined 9-8 ATS in their playoff campaigns:
2022 Chiefs – ATS loss 1st playoff game (W, SB; 2-1 ATS in playoffs)
2022 Buccaneers – SU/ATS loss 1st playoff game
2020 Browns – won SU/ATS 1st playoff game, 2-0 ATS in playoffs
2008 Vikings – SU/ATS loss 1st playoff game
2004 Seahawks – SU/ATS loss 1st playoff game
2003 Panthers – 4-0 ATS in playoffs (L, SB)
2002 Colts – SU/ATS loss 1st playoff game
2002 49ers – ATS loss 1st playoff game, 0-2 ATS playoffs
2002 Steelers – ATS loss 1st playoff game, 1-1 ATS playoffs
➤The Bears look to be the public side this week vs. Packers, according to Action Network betting data.
This season, Packers are 0-6-1 ATS as the public side and 6-3 ATS when their opponent is getting 51% of tickets or more.
➤The Packers and the Chargers are on the road this week after playing on the road in Week 18 – not a great omen for their Wild Card matchup.
Teams to play on their 2nd consecutive road game or later in the playoffs are 32-62 SU (34%) over the last 20 years, including 25-53 SU when they are listed as underdogs.
➤The second half has been a special place for Caleb Williams and the Bears.
In his career, Caleb is 23-11 against the 2nd half spread in 34 career starts, the 2nd-best mark over the last two seasons, behind just Josh Allen.
Caleb and the Bears have covered 7 straight 2H’s entering the playoffs this year.
➤Bears are in the playoffs for the first time since 2020-21 and are getting their first home playoff game since facing the Eagles in 2018-19.
Overall, the Bears have lost 3 consecutive playoff games both SU and ATS entering this season. In Bears franchise history, they’ve never lost four consecutive playoff games outright and this is just the 2nd time they’ve lost three straight playoff games (1995-2006).
Longest Active SU and ATS Playoff Losing Streak
6 – Steelers
3 – Bears, Vikings, Seahawks, Raiders, Titans
➤Caleb Williams will be making his first playoff start for the Bears this week.
Since the 1970 merger, eight Bears QBs have made their 1st playoff starts at home in Chicago, they are just 3-5 SU, with Jay Cutler, Mike Tomczak and Jim McMahon coming away with the outright win.
Looking at Bears QBs to even make a playoff start in their first two years in the league, it’s just Mitch Trubisky and Doug Flutie since 1950 – with both QBs losing at home.
➤The Bears faced the Lions last week and now Chicago looks forward to the playoffs. In Caleb Williams’ career as a starter for the Bears, he started 0-6 SU the game after facing an NFC North opponent – since that Week 2 loss to Detroit, Caleb is now 4-0 SU after facing an NFC North opponent, an improved bounce back spot.
➤Ben Johnson is now 10-6-1 ATS as head coach of the Bears, profiting a $100 bettor $328 this year. That is currently the highest ATS mark for any Bears head coach since Mike Ditka, who was there btwn 1982-92 and ten games above .500 ATS.
Ben Johnson joins Matt Nagy and Paddy Driscoll on a list of head coaches to take Bears to the playoffs in their first full season as head coach. Both coaches lost their playoff debuts both SU and ATS as favorites.
Referee Trends and Stats: Adrian Hill
Favorites 67-27-1 SU since 2020
Ben Johnson 2-0 SU career
Underdogs 2-0 SU/ATS in playoffs
Underdogs 11-3 ATS this season, best mark in NFL
Bears 3-6 ATS since 2019
Road teams 9-4 ATS this season, 2nd-best mark for any referee in NFL
Under is 63-47 (57%) with Hill, 10-4 this season
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Josh Allen is just 5-8 ATS in his playoff career. He is .500 ATS or worse in each round of the playoffs he’s played in.
Last year, Josh went 2-1 ATS in the playoffs, his first year above .500 ATS in the postseason for him. Since Allen’s first playoff appearance in 2019, he’s the least profitable QB ATS in the postseason.
On the road in the playoffs, Josh Allen is 0-4 SU/ATS – that is tied with Matt Hasselbeck for the worst SU mark for any QB since at least 2003.
Overall, Buffalo has lost 8 consecutive playoff games outright on the road, their last win came back in 1993. One more road loss would be the 2nd-longest road playoff losing streak in NFL history behind the Lions current 12-game losing streak.
➤This season, the Bills are 5-1 ATS when facing teams who are above .500 SU, the most wins without a loss for any team in the NFL Against teams below .500, the Bills are just 2-5 ATS this season.
Bills’ 57% ROI ATS vs. teams above .500 is the best mark of any team in the NFL this year.
➤With the playoffs here, time to see if the BIlls can break their predictable game script.
1st half bad…
Bills are 2-7 1H ATS in their last nine games and they are 5-12 1H ATS this season, tied with the Saints for the worst mark in the NFL. Bills are 2-7 1H ATS vs. teams with a record of 50% or higher.
When Buffalo is favored to win the full game outright, they are 4-11 1H ATS.
2nd half good…
In the regular season, Josh Allen is 83-41-3 2H ATS, including 26-8 2H ATS over the last two years in the regular season, both are the best mark for any QB in the NFL (career mark best since 2005).
What Buffalo does love to do is come back in the second half. This year, Bills are 12-5 2H ATS, tied for the 2nd-best mark in the NFL.
In the playoffs though, Allen is just 4-9 against the 2nd half spread, the worst mark for any QB in the last 20 years, including 3-8 2H ATS in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds.
➤The over/under in Bills-Jaguars is up to 52.5 this week – highest total on the board.
Totals of above 51 in outdoor playoff games are 19-8-1 to the under dating back to 2004, going under the total by 5.2 PPG, including 15-6 to the under at 52.5 or higher.
➤Jaguars are 13-4 to their team total over this year, the best mark in the NFL – Jacksonville enters the playoffs with a 12-5 ATS record, the best ATS mark in franchise history.
The Patriots, Rams and Jaguars all enter the playoffs with a 70% ATS win pct – Since 2017, teams with a 70%+ ATS win pct are just 3-11 ATS in the playoffs.
➤The Jaguars are red hot. They’ve won 8 consecutive games both SU and ATS entering the playoffs.
The Jags are just the 2nd team since the 1970 merger to enter the playoffs on a 8+ game SU and ATS win streak, joining the 2011-12 Saints, who won and covered their Wild Card game and lost in the Divisional Round.
➤Not only are the Jaguars hot, but they’ve also scored 23+ pts in 10 straight games entering the playoffs, with their defense allowing 20 pts or less in six straight. Dominant.
Since 2000, only two other teams have a streak of 6+ games scoring 23+ and allowing 20 or less: 2019 Ravens and 2007 Chargers.
In the Super Bowl era, Jacksonville is just the 3rd team to enter the playoffs on that 23+/20 or less streak:
2025 Jaguars
2007 Chargers – Won 2 playoff games, covered all 3
1973 Rams – lost 1st playoff game SU/ATS
➤Jacksonville is the only team in the NFL not to allow any player to rush for 75+ yards in a single game this season.
This season, Jacksonville has faced a RB who had a rush yd prop of 60+ nine times and those RBs are 9-0 to the under … James Cook is up next, the 2025 rushing champion:
T. Pollard, J. Taylor, B. Hall, J. Taylor, K. Vidal, A. Jeanty, K. Williams, C. McCaffrey, C. Brown
➤Bills have been comeback kings this season. They have six outright wins when trailing by 7 pts or more, tied for the most in a single-season in Buffalo history.
➤This season, Josh Allen has played much better at home vs. road:
Home: 16 TD passes, 4 INT, 114.8 pass rtg, 38 20+ yd throws, 18 sacks
Road: 9 TD passes, 6 INT, 87.7 pass rtg, 18 20+ yd throws, 22 sacks
➤Historically, Josh Allen has performed well in terms of wins and losses when facing good defenses.
• When defenses allow under 20 PPG, Allen is 29-10 SU and 28-10-1 ATS in his career – the best mark for any QB since at least 2003, just ahead of Tom Brady.
• Facing teams allowing 20 PPG or more, Allen is just 39-50-4 ATS, including 17-28-1 ATS in the last four seasons, worst mark of any QB in the NFL.
➤Looking strictly at the playoffs for Josh, he is 5-3 ATS when facing a defense allowing under 21 PPG and 0-5 ATS (2-3 SU) when facing a defense allowing above that mark.
Referee Trends and Stats: Brad Allen
Buffalo won six consecutive games SU (8-4 SU) — Josh Allen 6-0 SU (3-0 SU in playoffs)
Trevor Lawrence 2-4 SU
Under is 5-1 with Trevor Lawrence at QB
Favorites and home teams 5-1 SU in playoffs
Favorites 33-14 SU since 2023, 3rd-best of any referee.
Favorites 13-2 SU this season
Road teams 10-4 ATS this season, best mark in NFL
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤The Eagles and 49ers have some history when it comes to their main pieces, Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts and Kyle Shanahan and Nick Sirianni.
Hurts has faced Purdy twice, both games were in Philadelphia with them splitting one a piece. Hurts has faced Kyle Shanahan three times, also with all three of those games coming at home in Philly. In two of those three games, Philly was held to under 20 pts.
At home in the playoffs, Jalen Hurts is 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS), he is winning those games by 21 PPG. In the playoffs and regular season, Hurts is 31-5 SU as a home favorite, including 13-1 SU in December or later.
➤Brock Purdy has made 51 career starts in the NFL – he has been an underdog just four times. The 49ers are 0-4 SU/ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread by 12.3 PPG.
No QB is 0-5 ATS as an underdog dating back to 2003.
➤Both the Eagles and 49ers lost games outright and ATS entering this playoff game – Philly rested their starters vs. Commanders, while 49ers lost to the Seahawks with the 1 seed on the line.
The issue for San Francisco is putting up just 3 pts in the loss. Teams off a SU loss entering a playoff game, scoring 13 pts or less in that previous game are just 12-22 ATS in the playoffs, 6-13 ATS at 9 pts or less and 4-9 ATS at 6 pts or less.
➤At times this season, the Eagles offense has been downright abysmal – but it really hasn’t mattered.
When Philly totals less than 250 yards in a game, they are 3-0 SU/ATS this season. Under Nick Sirianni, they are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in that spot. For perspective, the other 31 NFL teams are are 22-71 SU and 26-67 ATS when totaling under 250 yards this season.
This season, Eagles are 1-6 SU when their starting QB passes for 230+ yards and 10-0 SU when passing for under that mark.
➤49ers have excelled off of a loss under Kyle Shanahan this season, going 4-0 SU and ATS, covering the spread by 10.8 PPG. Only Dave Canales has more ATS wins without a loss after a SU loss this season at 8-0 ATS.
➤We’ve heard a large stigma about the Eagles blowing leads in the past.
Under Nick Sirianni, Philly is 32-5 SU and 25-12 ATS as a home favorite when they get a lead of 6 pts or more at any point. When that opponent is above .500 SU on the season, Philly is 19-0 SU (16-3 ATS).
➤The Eagles hope to get back Lane Johnson against the 49ers this week.
Lane has missed the last seven games for the Eagles. When Lane plays, Philadelphia is 122-62-1 SU, when he doesn’t they are just 18-29 SU.
➤Brock Purdy’s playoff run will be all about turnovers. In his six playoff starts, Purdy has yet to throw an interception and he has one fumble, which he lost in his playoff game vs. Eagles in Philadelphia – a game SF lost after Purdy got hurt and was replaced by Josh Johnson.
49ers with Brock Purdy as starter:
23-1 when he has 0 turnovers (lost SB vs. Chiefs)
11-15 when he has at least 1 turnover (lost only playoff game vs. Eagles)
2-8 when he has multiple turnovers
➤49ers had the opportunity to play at home through the Super Bowl, but lost to the Seahawks last week. Now, they play in Philadelphia in 40° weather outdoors.
Purdy has started four road games in under 50° facing a team who is above .500 entering this week – 49ers are 2-2 SU/ATS, with SF failing to cover the spread by 5.9 PPG.
Of his 51 career starts, Purdy’s four road starts in under 50° facing a team who is above .500 is the 3rd, 7th, 8th and 10th lowest career marks in passing success rate for Purdy (Note: one of these 4 games was game he was injured in vs. 49ers in playoffs).
How well Purdy has played this season has been predicated a bit by strength of opponent. He has a passer rating of 123.9 in four starts vs. non-playoff teams and 83.6 in five starts vs. non-playoff teams.
➤At home this season, the Eagles have started slow. They are just 2-6 against the 1st quarter spread at home this year, tied for the 3rd-worst mark for any team in the NFL.
This season, the Eagles are just 6-11 to their team total over, tied for the worst mark in the NFC with the Bucs. This would be the Eagles first season under .500 to their TTO since 2020.
Referee Trends and Stats: Alan Eck
1st playoff game
Hurts 3-0 SU career
Favorites 37-10 SU, 30-17 ATS since 2023 — 11-5 SU this year, 26-5 SU 2023-24. The 37-10 SU mark is 2nd-best of any referee.
Home teams 33-14 SU, 28-19 ATS since 2023
Over is 11-5 this season with Eck, 2nd-best mark for any referee this season.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Justin Herbert will be making his 3rd career playoff start this week. In his previous two playoff starts, he has started on the road both times, losing both SU and ATS, going 0-2.
It’s really been the Chargers defense that has let Herbert down, with them allowing 63 total points, 30+ in both games.
➤Herbert has faced the Patriots defense four times in his career – he’s 2-0 SU/ATS on the road and 0-2 SU/ATS at home – but with New England, he’s never faced Mike Vrabel.
With the Titans, Herbert has faced Vrabel twice, going 1-1 SU/ATS, being favored in both games. Herbert threw for 300+ pass yds in both games, but one of those games had his 12th-lowest passer rating of his career back in 2022.
➤Herbert is trying to stop the stigma. Last four years, Herbert is 9-16 SU vs. teams above .500, in Herbert’s career he is 15-24 SU vs. teams above .500 SU – but this year, he is 3-3 SU in this spot.
Of 148 QBs over the last decade, Herbert is the 3rd-least profitable on the moneyline vs. teams above .500, behind Carson Wentz and Andy Dalton.
Taking it one step further – Justin Herbert had faced 35 teams in his career who made the playoffs that season prior to this year, he went 9-26 SU in those starts. This year so far, he has faced four of those teams – and he is 3-2 SU.
➤Drake Maye has New England playing well as a big favorite. As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Maye is 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS, winning those ten games by 17 PPG.
What the Patriots have accomplished from an expectations standpoint is impressive. They are 14-3 SU and 12-5 ATS and entering the season they were the first team since division realignment in 2002 to see their win total jump 4+ games year-to-year from BOTH their previous win total AND previous games won.
➤Drake Maye is making his 1st career playoff start vs. a QB with playoff experience. QBs making their first playoff start vs QBs who have playoff experience are 20-39-1 ATS (34%) and 20-40 SU since 2002.
When that QB is favored by 3 pts or more, they are 10-9 SU and 8-11 ATS.
➤Chargers have lost 3 consecutive games both SU and ATS in the playoffs, with all three games coming on the road – in fact, Chargers have played six consecutive playoffs game on the road, with their last home playoff game coming back in 2010 vs. Jets.
➤The 2nd half has been an issue for Herbert and the Chargers in the playoffs. In two second halves in the postseason for Herbert, L.A. has been outscored 46-9, with the Chargers scoring 6 pts and 3 pts in the 2H of both games.
➤Patriots enter the playoffs with a 12-5 ATS record, tied for the best mark in the NFL with the Seahawks, Rams and Jaguars.
The Patriots, Rams and Jaguars all enter the playoffs with a 70% ATS win pct – Since 2017, teams with a 70%+ ATS win pct are just 3-11 ATS in the playoffs.
➤Chargers are off a loss in Denver entering the playoffs this week.
Coming off a game at Mile High Stadium is never an easy feat. Last three seasons, teams coming off a road game in Denver are 7-18 ATS, including 1-7 ATS this season.
➤As an underdog in the NFL, Harbaugh is 13-13 SU, profiting a $100 bettor $1,011 for a 39% ROI. With Justin Herbert at QB, the Chargers are 4-0 SU as underdogs this year – Herbert was 2-13 SU as an underdog the previous three seasons as a starter.
In Justin Herbert’s career, he is 18-12-1 ATS as an underdog, including 14-6 ATS on a road/neutral site. As an underdog of 3 pts or more, he is 13-6-1 ATS as a starter.
➤Drake Maye has faced four opponents at home who were above .500 SU at the time of the game, New England is just 1-3 SU in those games – including 0-1 SU this year, only facing one team in that spot, the Bills back in December.
➤The Packers and the Chargers are on the road this week after playing on the road in Week 18 – not a great omen for their Wild Card matchup.
Teams to play on their 2nd consecutive road game or later in the playoffs are 32-62 SU (34%) over the last 20 years, including 25-53 SU when they are listed as underdogs.
➤As a head coach, Jim Harbaugh has faced the Patriots twice, once with the Chargers and once with the 49ers, with his teams going 2-0 SU/ATS – both on the road in New England, scoring 40+ pts in both pf those games. Harbaugh though has never faced Mike Vrabel as a head coach on the other sideline.
Referee Trends and Stats: Ron Torbert
Drake Maye 0-3 SU/ATS career, NE lost 4 straight ATS
Chargers 3-8 SU, 2-9 ATS since 2015, including 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS on the road
Favorites 145-50-1 since 2014. $100 bettor up $1,530, most of any referee.
Patriots 2-0 SU/ATS in playoffs
Road teams 106-83-3 ATS since 2014. $100 bettor up $1,669 (4th of 54 officials)
Herbert 0-3 ATS career
Over is 6-1-1 in eight Patriots home games with Torbert and 10-1-1 in 12 total Patriot games.
Over is 7-4 in eleven playoff games with Torbert
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Steelers haven’t won or covered a playoff game since 2016-17, a 6-game SU/ATS playoff losing streak for Pittsburgh — their longest in franchise history.
Only three other teams have lost 7 straight playoff games in NFL history:
Lions 9, 1991-16
Bengals 8, 1990-15
Chiefs 8, 1993-13
When it comes to losing 6+ games both SU and ATS in the playoffs, here is the list Pittsburgh currently sits for the entirety of the Super Bowl era:
Chiefs 8, 1993-13
Bengals 7, 1990-14
Steelers 6, 2016-25
Vikings 6, 1988-96
➤This will be CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryan’s 5th career playoff start as a duo – winning their 1st playoff game in each of their first two seasons in the postseason.
Stroud is 2-0 SU/ATS at home in the playoffs and 0-2 SU/ATS on the road. At home, Stroud’s Texans have scored 77 total pts in two games (30+ pts in both games). On the road, Stroud’s Texans have scored 24 total pts (scoring 14 pts or less in both games).
In four career playoff starts entering this week, he has yet to close as the favorite in the playoffs.
➤It’s only fitting the Steeers will play in the playoffs … on a Monday.
Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 23-5 SU and 16-12 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 12-1 SU and 7-6 ATS when that game is at home in Pittsburgh.
Dating back to 1992, Steelers are 23-1 SU at home on Monday Night Football, just losing to the Commanders in 2020 – when Pittsburgh has their fans in the stands and the atmosphere opponents are used to, Steelers are 23-0 SU at home on MNF since 1992.
Aaron Rodgers has played at home on MNF 14 times in his career, his teams are 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS in those games.
➤Stroud is 2-0 SU/ATS in the Wild Card round and overall, the Texans franchise has had success in the opening frame of the playoffs, going 6-2 SU/ATS – but all eight games have come at home.
Where Houston hasn’t had success is on the road in the playoffs, where they are 0-6 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in franchise history.
➤Steelers have started so slow in recent playoff games. They haven’t scored a single point in the 1st quarter of their last six playoff games, being outscored 73-0 in those six games.
Pittsburgh has scored 7 pts or less in 69 consecutive regular season and playoff games dating back to September of 2022.
➤Aaron Rodgers is the lone QB in the Wild Card round to win a Super Bowl ring and be listed as an underdog this week.
Since 2003, Super Bowl-winning QBs are 64-25-2 ATS (72%) as an underdog in the playoffs. Those QBs are 26-8 ATS (77%) as a dog before winning the ring and 38-17-2 ATS (69.1%) after the ring — incl. 16-5 ATS since 2018 playoffs.
➤The Texans are on the longest SU winning streak for any team entering the playoffs, winning 9 in a row.
Teams on a 9+ game SU win streak entering the playoffs are 6-19 ATS since division realignment back in 2002, failing to cover the spread by 3.9 PPG. When those teams are listed as favorites, they are 5-14 ATS.
➤This will be Aaron Rodgers’ 22nd career playoff start. He is just 11-10 SU and 12-8-1 ATS in the playoffs, including 4-6 SU and 6-3-1 ATS when he listed as an underdog.
This will be just his 2nd start in the playoffs as a home underdog, doing so back in 2013-14 against the 49ers. He closed +3 and lost 23-20.
This will be Rodgers’ 5th home game this season as an underdog – he only had 11 such games in the previous 20 seasons in the NFL.
➤Texans defense is allowing just 17.4 PPG entering the playoffs, which is actually now 2nd in the NFL after Week 18, with the Seahawks allowing just 17.2 PPG.
In the last 20 years, defenses allowing 17.5 PPG or less entering a Wild Card game are 13-7-2 ATS – those teams are covering the spread by 5.7 PPG.
➤A different angle. Rodgers has had a lot of success in terms of wins and losses facing great defenses later in the season.
When Rodgers faces a defense allowing 18 PPG or less in December or later, he is 8-3 SU and 9-1-1 ATS, covering 5 in a row. He hasn’t faced a defense in this spot since back in 2019.
➤CJ Stroud has started 50 total games in the NFL, the under is 31-18-1 in those games, but the under is just 2-4-1 in January and 29-14 in December or earlier.
Stroud also enters the playoffs exactly 25-25 ATS in his career – 14-9 ATS as an underdog and 11-16 ATS as a favorite.
➤DeMeco Ryans and the Texans are coming off a big win against the Colts last week. Under DeMeco, Houston is 12-5 ATS after facing an AFC South opponent, including 9-4 ATS after a SU win.
➤DeMeco Ryans has been a first-half machine…
2025: 10-7 1H ATS
2024: 14-5 1H ATS
2023: 12-7 1H ATS
————————-
36-19 1H ATS
DeMeco has profited a $100 bettor $1,413 on the first half spread for a 25.7% ROI, the 2nd-best ROI mark for any head coach since 2005., behind just Joe Gibbs.
Forgetting the spread, DeMeco is 37-16-2 on the 1H moneyline, winning seven straight entering this week. Texans have also been fast starters this year, they are 11-6 1Q ATS, tied for the best mark in the NFL, including 6-3 1Q ATS at home, also tied for best mark in the NFL.
➤The Steelers welcome back DK Metcalf. Here is his impact on Pittsburgh.
1st 16 WKs L2 Wks
CPOE +0.8 -3.5
EPA/play 0.087 -0.052
1st read rate 66.5% 67.4%
Off-target rate 12.9% 23.3%
Here are Metcalf’s ranks for Pittsburgh in a number of categories.
Target share 21.1% (1st)
Air Yd share 40.6% (1st)
End Zone targets 11 (1st) – next closest is 4 by 3 players
1st read targets 85 (1st) – next closest is C. Austin w/ 48
➤The Texans have had goal line issues on offense all season long, especially in the run game. They had just 4 rush TDs inside the 5-yard line, which is the fewest among playoff teams by 4 rush TDs (CAR, PHI, DEN, LAC all have 8).
On their 24 rush attempts inside the 5, Houston has just 6 total rushing yards, for 0.25 yards per carry, tied for the 2nd-lowest mark in the NFL.
Among Houston’s RBs and FBs, they have 21 carries inside the 5-yd line for a total of 4 yards in those 21 carries – its’ been a tough going.
➤Texans are the fifth team since 1990 to start 0-3 and make the playoffs
1992 Chargers
1995 Lions
1998 Bills
2018 Texans
2025 Texans
Referee Trends and Stats: Craig Wrolstead
Rodgers 5-1 SU/ATS since 2019
Tomlin 7-2 SU/ATS last nine games
Favorite 5-1 SU in playoffs
Underdogs 8-9 SU this season, tied for most wins of any referee
Road teams 102-84-3 ATS. $100 bettor up $1,179.
Under is 9-4 in Mike Tomlin games with Wrolstead
Under is 5-1 in Wrolstead’s six playoff games
Over is 8-2 with Aaron Rodgers games with Wrolstead
Click here to return to the table of contents.
NFL Betting Systems
System: Look to back Wild Card teams with experience vs. teams without it.
Matches: LAR, GB, PHI, LAC, BUF
System: Packers, 49ers and Chargers limped into the playoffs. In regular season or playoffs, teams off a bad performance are good bets in their next game.
Matches: GB, SF, LAC
Click here to return to the table of contents.
System: We have wind this weekend — which has historically leaned to the under.
Matches: CHI/GB, PHI/SF
System: Outdoor Wild Card unders have been a cash cow. Since 2004, they are 49-23 to the under.
Matches: All six games this weekend
Click here to return to the table of contents.
System: Underdogs tend to cover the first half spread early in the playoffs, Wild Card and Divisional Rounds.
Matches: All dogs this weekend
System: History hasn't been kind to teams who are big underdogs the week before entering the Wild Card round.
Matches: GB, LAC
Click here to return to the table of contents.
