The 2025 NFL Playoffs have arrived, and we’re treated to six games for Wild Card weekend.
Two exciting young quarterbacks are set to make their NFL playoff debuts in the Patriots' Drake Maye and the Bears' Caleb Williams. The old guard will also be well represented with Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. Josh Allen and the Bills are also present once more as they try to make the leap.
Below, you can find my NFL Wild Card picks and previews for every game.
NFL Predictions — Wild Card Round
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Rams vs Panthers |
| Packers vs Bears |
| Bills vs Jaguars |
| 49ers vs Eagles |
| Chargers vs Patriots |
| Texans vs Steelers |
Rams vs Panthers
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
I think this number makes complete sense.
The Panthers don't entirely deserve to be here after finishing 8-9 with some of the worst offensive rankings in the NFL; the Rams on the other hand, have scored at will. Use whatever metrics you'd like, but we have the top-scoring offense taking on the fifth-worst, and in L.A.'s case it actually has a sound defense.
While the Rams' rushing defense took a slight stumble in the second half of the season, they remain the fifth-best by DVOA and rank first with just 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game.
Carolina is nothing without the ground game, seeing as it's run at the 10th-highest clip in the league, and that number is actually far more notable when you consider many of the Panthers' games have seen them go down early.
With Davante Adams set to return for the Rams, I just can't see a good argument for the Panthers. Sure, they managed to beat the Rams back in Week 13, but L.A. put up 28 points in that one and went for 7.2 yards per carry while the Panthers offense was limited to just around four.
L.A. out-gained Carolina 379 yards to 358, too, and if not for three brutal turnovers, that game would have gone differently.
I expect much of the same from both teams, and given the Panthers have recorded just four takeaways in four games since that win over the Rams, I wouldn't bet on three turnovers.
Verdict: Lean Rams -10.5; Under 46.5
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Packers vs Bears
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +100 |
The Packers didn't exactly have the easiest schedule to close out the season, aside from Week 18 when they rested their starters, but you'd still have expected them to come away with at least one statement win before heading into the playoffs.
Instead, their defense crumbled against the Broncos and Ravens — two teams with their fair share of offensive woes this year — and the Packers failed to move the ball against Chicago's defense in a 22-16 win a few weeks ago.
Looking back on the two low-scoring meetings between these division rivals this year, it's hard to say we'll get a different feel to this one. Both teams love to run, ranking inside the top 10 in rush play rate.
At least in Chicago's case, its defense has managed to turn the ball over at the highest clip in football, which has lifted the defense up high enough to make the playoffs.
I can't look past the fact that, up until Week 18 when the starters sat, the Packers turned the ball over six times in their last four games. That's the reason why their 8.3 yards per attempt and 4.7 yards per carry over that span didn't amount to more, and that puts Green Bay in a tricky matchup on Saturday.
Green Bay and Chicago rank 23rd and 24th in DVOA against the run, respectively, through the last six weeks of the season — but that's actually a huge positive for a Bears team that was just 28th for the year.
If those improvements prove to be legitimate, a Packers offense that has lost some key players already and has struggled to move the ball in recent weeks may not be able to do enough to win this game.
Verdict: Bet Bears Moneyline (+105)
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Bills vs Jaguars
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
Let's just lay it out simply before we go any further: The Bills have one of the secondaries in the league, but they have one of the worst units against the run. The Jaguars have one of the best defenses in football, led by their performance against the run, but their offense has been mediocre and they haven't really established if they want to be a run-first team or not.
Now, if you want to run 30 times on the Bills, good things are generally going to happen. We saw that come to fruition when Buffalo played the Patriots and Browns, allowing 7.3 yards per carry across Weeks 15 and 16, and if not for some terrible quarterback play in those games, the Bills probably would have lost.
I just don't think Trevor Lawrence has it in him to successfully overcome what is really a vulnerable Bills defense. His 66.4 passer rating under pressure ranks 27th out of 44 quarterbacks to take at least 20% of the snaps this season, and Buffalo's defense ranks top five in pressure rate. Lawrence has hardly been pressured this season, something that's probably due more to his schedule than excellence on the line, and that will all but certainly change here against Buffalo.
Assuming DaQuan Jones, Joey Bosa and Shaq Thompson play, which is likely given they've been practicing this week, I don't really see a way in for the Jaguars. Sure, they may move the ball on the ground, but others have done that only to fail behind a quarterback heading up against one of the top secondaries in football.
If that's the case, too, then the Bills — whose offense has had very few problems scoring this year even against the best defenses — should emerge victorious. The Jags are just going to require too much offense to win this game — I don't see it happening.
Verdict: Bet Bills Moneyline (-110)
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49ers vs. Eagles
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -245 |
It's a mystery as to how the 49ers, despite missing a long list of essential players and using two quarterbacks for much of the year, are in the playoffs with a 12-5 record.
I mean, it's probably less of a mystery when you see they've faced the seventh-easiest schedule, according to Pro Football Focus, but even then they're 11-6 against the spread, so something's going right.
Well, I'm here to tell you that it's pretty much been all about the offense. Even with Christian McCaffrey failing to do much of anything on the ground, the passing attack has ranked inside the top five in DVOA thanks to his efforts in the passing game, and a bunch of dinking and dunking from Brock Purdy.
San Francisco carries the second-highest checkdown rate in football and Purdy himself owns the sixth-highest play-action rate, meaning this will be about Philly's ability to tackle in the open field and defend in close.
The Eagles rank in the bottom 10 in tackling grade, according to Pro Football Focus, but they do run more one-high coverage than all but one team, which will afford them the ability to stop the quick passes coming from the 49ers.
Given they've ranked fifth in yards per attempt allowed and first in completion percentage, even a few broken tackles from CMC shouldn't do this defense in. It also ranks eighth in yards after the catch allowed this year.
That's really all we needed to cover, because it's pretty evident that the Eagles should be able to move the ball. They rank near the top of the league in run play tendency, and meet a 49ers defense which ranks 25th in DVOA against the run and 25th over the last six weeks as well.
The 49ers have been missing Nick Bosa and Fred Warner up front all year, and there's still a laundry list of players on the line and at linebacker that are in danger of missing this game as well.
Philly's rushing offense may not be as potent as it used to be, but the 49ers have had an incredibly tough time stopping the run this year. As long as it can avoid an unexpected blunder on that side of the ball, the Eagles' pass defense has done more than enough to warrant faith that they can stop a 49ers team that's been incredibly fortunate in a number of ways.
Verdict: Bet Eagles -5
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Chargers vs Patriots
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | -200 |
This one would have been easier for me to call weeks ago, but now the Chargers defense has gone on an impressive run against some competent offenses which gives me a ton of pause here.
For much of the season, I've blocked out the noise surrounding the Patriots and have seen a competent offense that's been complemented by a solid run defense, but that narrative has certainly changed in the second half of the season. New England has ranked just 18th in DVOA against the run in the last six weeks, but its secondary has picked up the slack in ranking 12th over that same span.
Now, how much do we want to read into that?
The Patriots did play Josh Allen, but they also faced Lamar Jackson for just a handful of snaps and then faced Quinn Ewers and Brady Cook. Given that information, I'm not any more confident that they can stop the Chargers, even though L.A.'s offense has looked mediocre this year.
L.A. can avoid succumbing to this Patriots' run defense — if there is still a good one remaining — thanks to the 12th-highest pass play rate in the league. I have faith in the offense, and with the way the defense has been running it's hard not to love the points here.
Unlike New England, the Chargers have had to run through some quality offenses down the stretch from the Eagles and Chiefs to the Cowboys and Texans. All along the way the defense held firm, and it was the front seven which shined, ranking sixth in DVOA versus the run over the last six weeks.
Given the Chargers' secondary has been equally as potent for the duration of the year, and New England's affinity for the run, the Patriots will likely try their luck behind a ground game that ranked 11th-worst in DVOA this year with just 4.4 yards per carry. Their offense simply won't do enough to overcome Justin Herbert.
Verdict: Bet Chargers +3.5
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Texans vs Steelers
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
The Texans may have started slow, but what's materialized over their nine-game winning streak is the hard-nosed defense we've grown accustomed to seeing over the years. This is a team that ranks just 17th in pressure rate and has just lined up and stopped plays dead in the tracks. They rank second in DVOA in both phases of the game defensively, fifth in yards allowed after the catch and third in takeaways per game.
Simply put, there's a reason this is by far the lowest total of the weekend.
Pittsburgh's offense has managed just 306.5 yards per game, ranked 25th in the league, and while there have been some moments of brilliance out of Aaron Rodgers, this has ultimately been a slightly above-average pass offense.
Houston's done an excellent job on short passes, where Rodgers has made his money in the last few years, ranking third in completion percentage, and it's also ranked eighth in sack rate despite few pressures.
Any bodies in the backfield will be a bonus here, given Rodgers' old age has caused him to make poor decisions to avoid taking hits (his recent performance against the Browns is the best example), but even if he's given a clean pocket, there should be very few places to go.
I'm not the biggest fan of Houston's offense, either, but C.J. Stroud has led this team to ninth place in DVOA through the air over the last six weeks and in the last four specifically, he's recorded a 100.6 passer rating.
The Steelers have been far better against the run this year, considering they've allowed 7.3 yards per pass and the 16th-worst completion percentage, so if this trend continues they're all but done for here.
If you want to just put it simply, you're essentially being asked to pick which defense you like more in a game projected for 38 or so points, and I don't see how you can side with Pittsburgh's.
Verdict: Lean Texans -3
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Kenny's Wild Card Round Betting Card
- Lean Rams -3.5; Under 46.5
- Bears Moneyline
- Bills Moneyline
- Eagles -5
- Chargers +3.5
- Lean Texans -3
