Premier League Week 23 Picks: Duo of Draws and Dogs
Manchester City are still without a loss in the Premier League this season on their way to 20 wins and 2 draws, and they bounced back nicely last game to beat Watford 3-1 after a minor blip with Crystal Palace in Week 21 (0-0 draw). However, Sunday’s match at Liverpool appears to be one of their toughest of the year, and they find themselves at plus-money odds for just the third time all season. Line movement and public betting percentages in this match have set up nicely for one of the value plays this weekend, which have earned more than +30 units on the season with a 57% ROI. Is this the week that Manchester City’s unbeaten run in the Premier League finally ends?
Here’s a look at recent results, trends and payouts along with value plays and market analysis for Week 23.
Week 22 Results:
Home 3 of 10 (-4.84 units)
Away 5 of 10 (+2.51 units)
Draw 2 of 10 (-3.56 units)
Home 95 of 230 (-17.87 units)
Away 66 of 230 (-27.73 units)
Draw 59 of 230 (+18.56 units)
Season’s Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (+1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Huddersfield (+875) vs. Man Utd in Week 9
Crystal Palace (+695) vs. Chelsea in Week 8
Tottenham/Swansea Draw (+695) in Week 5
West Ham (+655) vs. Chelsea in Week 16
Title Odds via 5Dimes:
Manchester City -10000 (62 points)
Chelsea +7000 (46 points)
Manchester United +10000 (47 points)
Liverpool +10000 (44 points)
Tottenham +25000 (41 points)
Arsenal +50000 (39 points)
The title race appears to be over, but there’s plenty of other futures to keep an eye on like Season Point Totals, Relegation Odds, and Top Goalscorer.
Back on October 28th, BetOnline released odds of +1000 on whether Manchester City would go the entire Premier League season without a loss. More than two months later, Man City still haven’t lost a game and are now listed at +400 to finish the season unbeaten. Like most of these props, +400 is not a good price and not offering any sort of value since they have 16 matches left including: at Liverpool, at Arsenal, vs Chelsea, vs. Man United, and at Tottenham. And I especially hate the price since I think this is the weekend that they finally go down.
When odds opened for Sunday’s match against Liverpool, Pinnacle listed Manchester City at +120 odds to win. However, in the past week those odds have slowly increased up to Manchester City +133 despite getting the majority of moneyline tickets (nearly 60%). To no surprise, public bettors have gravitated toward the road dogs at plus-money to keep on rolling, but I’m all about fading the trendy dogs. Liverpool is also catching Man City at a great time in the schedule– City just played an EFL Cup semifinal match on Tuesday while Liverpool have been resting for over a week. Of course the departure of star midfielder Philippe Coutinho to Barcelona hurts, but Liverpool recently made a big-money acquisition in Virgil van Dijk to shore up their defense, which was obviously a bigger issue than midfield. He may not start depending on the plan from manager Jurgen Klopp, but Liverpool should still be in good position for an upset. Make sure you shop around the market to get the best odds possible, but I like Liverpool at +222 odds to snap Man City’s unbeaten streak.
I also love two draws on the slate this weekend, both following the same strategy of low totals and short moneylines. First off is the Brighton/West Brom Draw at +208 odds– we’re seeing a low total of just 2 goals and there’s actually heavy -142 juice on the Under, so we should expect a tight contest. At the time of publication, just 14% of bettors were taking the draw while the huge majority has taken West Brom to win. Again I’m fading the trendy dog and going with the Draw at +222 odds. The other draw with value this weekend is West Ham and Huddersfield at +217 odds. Just like Brighton/West Brom, there’s a very low total of just 2 goals and similar three-way moneylines (Huddersfield +171, West Ham +191, Draw +217). The public has shied away from the draw with just 20% of bets, but bettors should be expecting a 0-0 or 1-1 finish.
There’s one last value play for the weekend, and it’s mostly due to where the public has been betting this match. Over the course of the week, Swansea have received nearly 50% of tickets around the market despite being big +361 underdogs on the road. If you’ve been following my previews over the last two years you know how little I think of Swansea, so I’m really surprised to see public bettors loading up on them. They’re currently sitting at the very bottom of the Premier League table with 16 points and my assumption is that bettors think this is a “must-win’ type of game for them. My response to that is “no thanks” and I’ll once again be fading the trendy dogs and going with Newcastle -103 to win at home.
Most Lopsided Ticket Action Around Market
56% on Man City (+133) at Liverpool
53% on Burnley (+350) at Crystal Palace
48% on Swansea (+361) at Newcastle
46% on Everton (+1200) at Tottenham
36% on Leicester City (+1050) at Chelsea
Biggest Line Moves Since Opening
Bournemouth (+530 to +360) vs. Arsenal
Burnley (+385 to +340) at Crystal Palace
Leicester City (+1155 to +1085) at Chelsea
Value Plays (26-27 season record, +30.32 units, 57% ROI):
Liverpool (+222) vs. Manchester City
Brighton/West Brom Draw (+208)
Huddersfield/West Ham Draw (+217)
Newcastle (-103) vs. Swansea
As always, you can track all the latest Premier League line moves, betting percentages, market data and more with a Premium or Pro membership.