Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds, Picks and Predictions: Are Bettors Overlooking Die Roten in Der Klassiker? (Tuesday, May 26)
Martin Meissner/Pool via Getty Images. Pictured: Thorgan Hazard
- Bayern Munich is a -120 favorite over Borussia Dortmund in the updated odds for their Bundesliga match on Tuesday afternoon.
- Dortmund is a trendy underdog pick in Der Klassiker, but are bettors giving BVB too much credit?
- Anthony Dabbundo previews the biggest match of the week:
Bayern Munich at Borussia Dortmund Betting Odds
|Bayern Munich Odds||-120
|Time||12:30 p.m. ET|
Midweek soccer is back, and it kicks off with the two most prestigious clubs in Germany battling in “Der Klassiker,” German for The Classic.
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund sit 1-2 on top of the Bundesliga table, with Dortmund just four points behind Bayern, who have won the league eight consecutive years. Playing at home, Dortmund will be desperate to get all three points and close the gap to one with just six matches to go after Tuesday.
Both teams enter Tuesday’s clash in excellent form, as Bayern have won eight straight and Dortmund have won six consecutive in the Bundesliga. But a look at the teams cumulative performance throughout the course of the season and the underlying numbers in those games suggest that the real gap between the two teams is larger than the four points indicate. By comparing their expected goals and team composition, Bayern has a significant edge almost everywhere on the pitch.
While Bayern leads the league at +1.5 xG per 90, Dortmund is fourth at +0.56. Even though both table toppers have performed about as expected defensively, BVB’s historic overperformance offensively has inflated both their lines and goal tallies for most of the last two months. Despite just 47.7 xGF this season, they’ve piled up 74 goals, which has meant they’ve overperformed their expected points by about seven this year (57 actual, 50.48 expected).
Expected goals is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Dortmund’s defense has kept consecutive clean sheets since the return to play, but it faced off against two very weak attacks in Schalke and Wolfsburg. And while its offense scored six goals in two matches, they were again benefiting from great finishing, as xG indicated they really only generated about 2.2 goals worth of attacking chances.
Bayern put any concerns about its sharpness to rest after thrashing Frankfurt 5-2 on Saturday, conceding twice on corners but dominating the rest of the run of play. With Dortmund center back Mats Hummels in doubt for Der Klassiker, Dortmund’s defense will face one of its toughest tests of the season.
On the pitch, Bayern have completely dominated this rivalry of late. Each of the last two years, when Dortmund and Bayern met in the spring with the title still in doubt, Bayern romped its Klassiker rival. In March 2018, Bayern rolled 6-0, and in April 2019, the defending champions won 5-0. When the teams played earlier this season at Allianz Arena in Munich, Bayern won 4-0.
There may not be a single Dortmund player who would make it into the Bayern starting XI if the two teams were combined. Dortmund may be the trendy upset pick playing at home, but thus far, the home-field advantage appears to be severely limited.
While home teams won 43.3% of Bundesliga matches before the layoff this season, that number has dipped to 16.7% in the 18 matches since its return. It’s a small sample size, but it matches the expectation thus far. I’m getting a far superior Bayern team against an overvalued Dortmund side who won’t have crowd support in its biggest match of the season.
I’ll bet Bayern to win the match, and also sprinkle a little on them to win by more than one goal by taking Bayern -1 on the 3-way spread at +210 on FanDuel. It’s the same as betting Bayern -1.5 in traditional lines.
The Bet(s): Bayern -115, Bayern -1 (+210)