Updated Freiburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen Betting Odds and Picks: How to Bet Friday’s Bundesliga Match (May 29)

Leverkusen vs. Freiburg Odds

Odds as of Tuesday and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Two teams battling for European Football next season, Bayer Leverkusen and Freiburg, will meet at Schwarzwald-Stadion on Friday.

Freiburg

Freiburg were last seen blowing a two-goal lead with 10 minutes to go in a 3-3 draw with Frankfurt on Tuesday. As someone who bet on Frankfurt in that match, the expected goals report was infuriating to look at since they won the scoring chance battle. However, that's been the story of Freiburg's season. Their expected goal differential is -17.43, while their actual goal differential is -2.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Freiburg's results at home are all over the map. Against the top seven teams, they are 3-1-1 with a +1 goal differential at home. However, they are winless against the bottom three teams and have been outscored, 5-0, in those games.

Freiburg typically set up in a 3-4-1-2 or 3-4-2-1 formation, but they've struggled with those tactics this season, registering a -5.69 xG differential when they line up in either one of those set ups.

Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen were red hot before their loss against Wolfsburg on Tuesday. Before the loss, Die Werkself were 6-1-0 in their previous seven matches with 13.03 expected goals scored.

Games involving Leverkusen this season have typically featured plenty of scoring, with 64% of their matches going over 2.5 goals. Additionally, a total of 3.45 expected goals are created in Leverkusen games this season.

Die Werkself have been solid on the road with 28 points in 14 matches. Those results are buoyed by good fortune, though, as their xG differential away from home sits at -0.35.

Leverkusen typically lines up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, which is typically leads to a lot of goals. The formation provides Leverkusen with multiple attacking options and encourages creativity from their attacking players. Kai Havertz has particularly benefited from playing on the wing, with four goals in his past three games.

The downside of lining up in the 4-2-3-1 is that it puts a lot of pressure on the defense and puts the fullbacks in a lot of 1-on-1 situations. It's easy to see why Leverkusen matches usually feature crooked numbers.

Previous Meeting

The previous match at BayArena back in November ended in a 1-1 draw. Leverkusen were dominant in that match, outshooting Freiburg, 27-8, and the  expected goals report also showed that Leverkusen should have won the game 4-1.

An important note from this game is that Kai Havertz did not play. He will undoubtedly play an important role in Die Werkself's attack this time around.

Analysis

My model has the expected goals as:

• Freiburg: 1.35 xG
• Leverkusen: 2.49 xG

Leverkusen is a heavy road favorite at -150 and even though the numbers are in their favor, I can't trust them against an unpredictable Freiburg side. Instead, I'll back the Over 3 since I think we will see a high scoring affair at Schwarzwald-Stadion.

The Bet: Over 3 (-105)

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