Champions League Semifinal Betting Preview: Will Tottenham Overcome 1-0 Deficit at Ajax?

Champions League Semifinal Betting Preview: Will Tottenham Overcome 1-0 Deficit at Ajax? article feature image
Credit:

Reuters. Pictured: Ajax’s Donny van de Beek

  • Tottenham and Ajax will meet in the second leg of the Champions League semifinal on Wednesday (3 p.m. ET on TNT) in Amsterdam.
  • Ajax hold a 1-0 advantage and are -300 favorites to advance to the June 1 final, where Liverpool awaits.
  • Bettors haven't been very active on the moneyline, but the over/under has seen a significant shift.

Champions League semifinal action on Tuesday brought plenty of drama as Liverpool pulled off a stunning 4-0 victory over Barcelona to overcome a 3-0 first-leg deficit and advance to the Champions League Final.

The Reds were +1150 to advance heading into the second leg and will now face the winner of Ajax-Tottenham in the Champions League Final (June 1 at 3 p.m. ET). Their odds to hoist the trophy were as long as 20-1 before stunning Barca.

Ajax opened at 250-1 to win the Champions League and were also that high following their Round of 16 first leg against Real Madrid. Tottenham’s odds got as high as 28-1 in the opening stages of the tournament.

Odds to Advance (Ajax lead 1-0 on aggregate)

  • Ajax -300
  • Tottenham +250

There have been 17 instances of a club losing 1-0 at home in the first leg of a European Cup semifinal, and only one has managed to advance: Ajax in 1995/96.

Second Leg Odds (at Ajax)

  • Ajax +115
  • Tottenham +250
  • Draw +270
  • Over/Under 2.5 (o-140)

Injuries and Suspensions

Ajax:

Carel Eiting (knee) – OUT

Tottenham: 

Harry Kane (ankle) – OUT

Serge Aurier (hamstring) – OUT

Harry Winks (groin) – OUT

Davinson Sánchez (thigh) – OUT

Erik Lamela (hamstring) – QUESTIONABLE

Jan Vertonghen (upper body) – PROBABLE

Moussa Sissoko (groin) – PROBABLE

Ajax-Tottenham Betting Breakdown

Odds haven’t budged very much for the second leg tie between Ajax and Tottenham. The Dutch side opened +115 and the moneyline hasn’t moved more than 10 cents either way.

In the first leg — and throughout the tournament — early sharp money was all over Ajax and it’s obviously been paying off. Bettors haven’t found much value in the line yet for the second leg but could be waiting to swoop in late.

Tottenham’s form has been extremely poor as they’ve won just one of their last six matches across all competitions and have been shutout in four of five. Even worse, they’ve dropped nine of 10 road games and Wednesday’s trip to Amsterdam will be one of their toughest yet.

Public bettors are still supporting Spurs with 40% of moneyline bets while 51% is on Ajax. The remaining 9% is hoping for a draw at +270 odds.

At the current prices I don’t see value anywhere, though I would lean toward a 1-1 or 2-2 exact scoreline. Ajax should have enough to advance, but my confidence has waned a bit after seeing Liverpool dismantle Barcelona.

In the totals market, public and sharp bettors have combined to move the juice on the over (2.5) from -125 to -140. Some sportsbooks around the market have already shifted to 2.75 and 3 goals, and I would suggest getting in at 2.5 if you can.