Euro 2020 Prop Bet Pick: Expect Offenses to Shine in Italy vs. Spain Semifinal Battle (July 6)

Euro 2020 Prop Bet Pick: Expect Offenses to Shine in Italy vs. Spain Semifinal Battle (July 6) article feature image
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Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images. Pictured: Spain defender Jordi Alba celebrates a goal with teammate Álvaro Morata.

Things should get exciting Tuesday when juggernauts Italy and Spain duke it out in a Euro 2020 semifinal match at Wembley Stadium in London.

The most popular wagers to make on this match involve the sides and game total. They draw the most action at global sportbooks, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other props and derivatives to bet.

Let’s take a look at this angle ahead of the showdown between Azzurri and La Furia Roja to see if we can turn a profit on something a little different than the standard wagers.

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Italy vs. Spain Prop Bet

  • Bet: Both Teams To Score — Yes (-115)
  • Best Line: DraftKings

Italy has scored 11 goals in five games so far, plus it has a ridiculous, record-breaking unbeaten streak of 32 games. Its last loss came almost three years ago back in Sept. 2018 when it lost to Portugal in a Nations League match.

Defensively, Azzurri had gone 10 games and more than 1,000 minutes without giving up a goal before Austria scored in extra time in their Round of 16 contest. They also conceded via a penalty kick against Belgium, so they’ve now yielded a goal in two consecutive knockout-round contests.

The loss off defender Leonardo Spinazzola, who injured an Achilles tendon in the win over Belgium, creates a weakness in the back for Italy, so that’s something to keep an eye on as things progress throughout the match.

Despite a sluggish start, Spain has racked up 12 goals in five games, equalling their highest ever total at a continental tournament. The Spaniards set that mark during their triumphant Euro campaigns of 2008 and 2012.

When it comes to expected goals, Spain has increased its number in the advanced metric every match so far via these numbers: 1.9 xG — 2.2 xG — 3.1 xG — 3.4 xG — 3.8 xG, according to FBref.com. However, La Furia Roja haven’t faced a team with a defense as remotely as good as the one Italy possesses.

Defensively, Spain has showed some holes in this tournament. The country has given up five goals in its last three games, including three to an aging Croatian team that took it to overtime.

So, I’m finding value of -115 odds at DraftKings for both teams to score. I can’t see that number moving all that much, but I’d scoop it up now in case anything bizarre happens to make it drift upward.

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