Based on the odds, there's a decent chance we'll see an all-English final between Arsenal and Chelsea, but there may be an upset brewing in one of the Europa League semifinal matchups.
Chelsea vs. Frankfurt Europa League Betting
- Odds to Advance: Chelsea -210, Frankfurt +175
- First Leg Odds (at Frankfurt): Chelsea +140, Frankfurt +220, Draw +235
Recent Form
Casual fans may perceive Chelsea-Frankfurt as a blatant mismatch, but it’s closer than most think.
Frankfurt have been one of the hottest teams in 2019 and haven’t trailed in any of their 10 previous home fixtures in the Europa League; however, they've earned just one point in their last three Bundesliga matches, threatening their top-four spot.
Chelsea have only managed two points in their last three EPL games, but they did pick up a road draw at Manchester United and currently sit in fourth place in the standings.
Both clubs are dealing with a number of injuries. Chelsea will be without Willian, Rudiger and Hudson-Odoi while Frankfurt are missing Chandler, Tawatha, Stendera, Russ, Haller and Rebic.
Betting Market Breakdown
Chelsea have received the bulk of public action with more than 75% of moneyline bets. After opening +160, the Blues are down to +140 behind casual and sharp wagers around the market.
Frankfurt are up to +220 from +180, and at that price I think there's a bit of value on the home side to win.
In the totals market, the under (2.5) has attracted all the smart money thus far with the juice shifting from -110 to -120. We've tracked 59% of bets on the over, but 65% of the money is on the under.
Arsenal vs. Valencia
- Odds to Advance: Arsenal -145, Valencia +125
- First Leg Odds (at Arsenal): Arsenal +105, Valencia +300, Draw +240
Recent Form
Arsenal have lost three straight Premier League games by a combined 9-3 score to drift back into fifth position, two points behind Chelsea for fourth and four points behind Tottenham for third-place.
In Europa League action, they've kept a clean sheet in 9 of 11 fixtures, conceding just four goals in that span. They’ll hope to have that form on Thursday rather than their recent EPL performances.
Valencia have also dropped consecutive matches in domestic competition, 1-0 to Eibar and 3-2 at Atletico Madrid. They currently sit in sixth place in La Liga and are three points out of the coveted top-four spot, which ensures Champions League action next season.
Betting Market Breakdown
Public bettors have been all over Arsenal with more nearly 80% of the wagers. The Gunners originally opened in the -120 range but are now plus-money around most of the market.
Luckily for Arsenal, they've been far better at home than on the road this season, but sharp money doesn't seem to care.
Similar to Chelsea-Frankfurt, total bettors have been hitting the under (2.5) to move the juice from -115 to -125. 67% of the wagers have been on the over but 74% of the money is on the under.
Value Plays
- Frankfurt (+220) vs. Chelsea
