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Inter Miami vs. Orlando City Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday MLS Betting Preview (June 25)

Inter Miami vs. Orlando City Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday MLS Betting Preview (June 25) article feature image

Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Gonzalo Higuain.

  • Orlando City boots up for its third game in seven days when it travels south to play Inter Miami.
  • Friday marks the first time that the modern Florida Derby will be held in front of a packed house.
  • Despite the visitor's better form, Ian Quillen explains below why he's hesitant to back them.

Inter Miami vs. Orlando City Odds

Inter Miami Odds +235
Orlando City Odds +105
Draw +265
Over/Under 2.5 (-129 / -105)
Day | Time Friday | 8 p.m. ET
TV Fox Sports 1
Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings.

Orlando City looks for its third straight victory Friday night when it makes the trip south to face an Inter Miami squad that has lost three in a row.

Orlando has scored half its total goals on the season in its last two wins, a 3-2 triumph over Toronto and a 5-0 rout of San Jose that both came at home.

They face a Miami side that hasn’t scored in 275 minutes while losing back-to-back games to D.C. United and a match at the similarly struggling Chicago Fire before that.

Form clearly favors the visitors. But rivalry games often take a life of their own, and this is the first modern Florida Derby that will be played in front of a full-capacity crowd.

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Inter Miami Still Struggling After Break

The three-week international break did little to alter the frustrating fortunes of this second-year MLS club and first-year manager Phil Neville.

Miami returned the same way it left things, being statistically dominated and ultimately defeated by D.C. United.

Although D.C. needed a penalty kick this time to earn the three points, in terms of expected goals Miami was actually more thoroughly outplayed in Saturday’s 1-0 defeat than in a 3-0 loss at the end of May.

To be fair, Miami was without leading scorer Gonzalo Higuain in the second game. Neville left him home citing fitness concerns, then this week revealed the former Argentina and UEFA Champions League star had picked up a minor injury, removing him from training for several days during the break.

Higuain could be back this week. But Miami will be without defender Ryan Shawcross and midfielder Gregore, who both picked up red cards in the loss to D.C. and will be serving suspensions.

Midfielder Rodolfo Pizarro could return (likely off the bench) from an undisclosed injury after missing three games.

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Orlando City Playing Third Game in Seven Days

It’s probably not coincidence that Orlando’s offense found another with the return of Daryl Dike from a short-term loan to English League Championship side Barnsley.

Dike scored twice against San Jose in his first start after making his season debut off the bench in the victory over Toronto. He previously scored nine times in 19 appearances during his loan spell.

The vertical threat he adds perhaps has also freed space for Nani to be at his creative best. After converting an early penalty, the former Manchester United and Portugal standout assisted both of Dike’s goals.

The major challenge for Orlando may not be Miami but their own physical thresholds.

Despite 13 midweek games being contested this week, the Lions are the only MLS team that will have to play a third game within a seven-day span.

In part because of Dike’s return, manager Oscar Pareja was able to at least make three changes to his starting XI against San Jose, resting midfielder Mauricio Pereyra and attackers Tesho Akindele and Sylvester van der Water.

Betting Analysis & Pick

It’s one thing to play in midweek. It’s another to do so when your opponent on the weekend doesn’t have to, even if that opponent is struggling as mightily as Miami.

Even the most talented MLS rosters generally aren’t deep to overcome this kind of scheduling disadvantage. That largely explains why all five MLS teams competing in the Concacaf Champions League had slower-than-expected starts to the regular season

In total this season, MLS teams coming off short rest (playing midweek after a weekend, or vice versa) have only posted a record of 5W-12L-4D when playing against teams that are on at least regular rest.

That — plus the reality that Miami just might be at its most desperate — has me leaning toward the home underdogs, who were the only MLS side not in action in midweek. But the contrast in Orlando’s excellent form and Miami’s terrible recent run makes me a little cautious.

That’s why I’m playing a double-chance wager on Miami or the draw at -150 odds and a 60% implied probability. Other MLS teams in this situation have earned at least a point more than 75% of the time.

Pick: Double chance, Miami or draw (-150)

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