Everton vs. Southampton Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Toffees Finding Form (Monday, March 1)
Tony McArdle/Everton FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Everton star Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
- Everton welcomes struggling Southampton to Goodison Park for Monday's Premier League match.
- The Toffees are hoping for a second-half surge that could deliver them a spot in European football next season.
- Jeremy Pond breaks down the affair and details why he likes Everton to shine below.
Everton vs. Southampton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-105 / -120)|
|Day | Time||Monday | 3 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Sunday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Things could get pretty interesting in Premier League action Monday when Everton welcomes struggling Southampton to Goodison Park.
The Toffees enter the contest fresh off their convincing 2-0 shutout victory over Liverpool last time out. That three-point effort pushed the hosts to seventh on the table, improving their prospects of earning a spot in one of European football’s showcase events next season.
In contrast, things have continued to go downhill for the Saints. The visitors’ terrible run of form was on display in their most recent performance, which came in a 3-0 setback against Leeds United at Elland Road. Southampton, which sits in 14th place, has now gone winless in its last seven league fixtures.
This is an important game for both sides, so let’s see what might be in store.
Manager Carlo Ancelotti had to be thrilled with his club’s performance in that much-needed triumph over Liverpool. The Toffees had not won in three consecutive league fixtures prior to that three-point effort, which was also their first victory on Anfield soil in 22 years.
Richarlison put Everton on the board just three minutes into the game, which was the lone goal until Gylfi Sigurðsson converted from the spot in the 83rd minute to seal the win.
The Reds did hold a slight 1.7-1.5 xG advantage, but could not break through the Toffees’ staunch effort in its defensive third of the pitch.
Statistically, Everton has been pretty average in all major advanced metrics. The Toffees sit on a 28.9 expected goals and a mediocre 32.4 expected goals against, resulting in a -3.5 xGDiff and -0.15 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Everton has the worst xGDiff in the top half of the standings, with Leeds (-2.9 xGDiff) right ahead of it. Overall, the Toffees are 12th in the statistical ranking.
At one point in the season, the Saints looked like a team destined for a top-10 finish. Now, they’re just eight points clear of the relegation zone in what has become a tumultuous time for the club.
Overall, Southampton looked out of sorts in that lackluster performance against Leeds, who scored three unanswered second-half goals to bag all the points. The Saints held 54 percent of the possession in defeat, but lost the xG battle by a 1.3-0.7 margin.
Danny Ings leads the line for Southampton with a team-best eight goals. Ings has gotten solid support from defensive midfielder James Ward-Prowse, who has collected five goals and five assists for the Saints.
When comparing numbers with Everton, Southampton obviously trails its foe in all major categories. The Saints are currently on 24.1 xG and 32.6 xGA, resulting in a subpar -8.5 xGDiff and -0.34 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Everton really needs to put together a similar effort to the one it did at Anfield if it wants to keep pace with the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool in the race for a Champions League and Europa League berth.
That said, I am backing the Toffees on the alternative line of -0.25 as my top pick. They looked great in that win over Liverpool, which has me confident they will continue to ride that momentum. Throw in the fact Southampton is winless in its last six at Goodison Park, and I like my chances with this wager.
I will also sprinkle a little on Dominic Calvert-Lewin to find the back of the net. The Toffees’ star, who’s sitting on 13 goals in England’s top flight, has an outside shot at the league’s Golden Boot. DCL has been battling injury issues, but he got a good chunk of playing time against Liverpool so I am confident he’ll be available for selection tomorrow. If he gets the start I like his chances to add another goal to his account against a porous Southampton defense.
Picks: Everton -0.25 (-124) | Dominic Calvert-Lewin To Score Anytime — Yes (+123)