MLS Odds, Picks, Prediction: New England Revolution vs. Nashville Betting Preview (August 4)
Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: Tajon Buchanan (L) and Gustavo Bou.
- Two of the hottest teams in MLS meet on Wednesday as New England hosts Nashville.
- The Revolution have won four in a row, while Nashville have gone unbeaten in their last eight.
- Ian Quillen explains below why he expects both of their high-powered offenses to show up.
Editor’s note: Carles Gil will not dress for tonight’s match and reportedly miss at least three weeks due to a sports hernia. The writer’s best bet has been added to to reflect the report.
New England vs. Nashville Odds
|New England Odds||-145|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-130 / +105)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 7 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds updated Tuesday night via DraftKings.|
The Supporters’ Shield leaders New England Revolution will try to avenge their worst offensive performance of the season Wednesday when they host third-place Nashville.
New England, which enters with an eight-point cushion atop the Eastern Conference, is in the midst of a four-match winning streak after its dramatic 3-2 win at the New York Red Bulls last Saturday.
An offense led by 2021 MLS MVP contender Carles Gil has been shut out only once all season, which came in a 2-0 away defeat to Nashville in May.
The visitors are in strong form themselves, going unbeaten in their last eight fixtures while climbing five spots in the Eastern table.
Most recently, Nashville came from behind to earn a 1-1 draw against host Toronto FC on Sunday at BMO Field.
New England Standout Bou in Top Form
The most impressive part of the Revs’ winning streak? Their three away victories.
New England edged Atlanta United 1-0 the final game of Gabriel Heinze’s managerial tenure, then routed Inter Miami 5-0 in midweek despite a rotated squad. They followed that with a home win over Montreal before their latest dramatic win at the Red Bulls.
In the process, Gustavo Bou has vaulted himself into the MLS Golden Boot race. He has eight goals in his last eight starts — including four in his last three — to bring his season total to 10, one off Seattle’s Raul Ruidiaz.
Additionally, winger Tajon Buchanan and Henry Kessler should return from CONCACAF Gold Cup duty in position to start.
Buchanan played in all five of Canada’s, but will be six days out from his last appearance after a semifinal loss to Mexico.
Kessler only joined the United States for the knockout phase and made only a very late cameo in the championship victory over Mexico Sunday night.
If there’s cause to be wary, it’s New England’s expected goals performance, which suggests some good fortune.
The Revs’ +12 goal difference is six better than xG would predict, according to American Soccer Analysis. That’s been worth about 10 additional points in the standings, without which New England would be merely a conference contender, not leader.
Nashville Continues to Surprise This Season
Manager Gary Smith’s club continues to be one of the quietest MLS success stories in just their second year of competition.
Similar to New England, Nashville have skewed away from splashy “name” signings in the international market in favor of players in their prime age.
Unlike the Revs, whose attacking roles are very clearly defined, Nashville play with more interchangeable parts up front. The stats bear that out — Randall Leal, Hany Mukhtar and C.J. Sapong all have at least three goals and three assists.
Venezuelan striker Jhonder Cadiz — Nashville’s closest signing to a big splash last fall — has been the odd man out with two goals and an assist in 12 appearances (five starts).
After the 1-1 draw at Toronto, the condensed schedule might mean a chance to earn more time.
Defender Walker Zimmerman is still out with a hamstring injury, but midfielder/defender Anibal Godoy is off the injury report after he played the second half of a 1-1 draw in Toronto.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The Revolution are stronger home favorites than you might expect in a clash of two teams near the top of the table.
Nashville has only lost once on the road in five trips. And if you want to play the money line, +275 odds on the draw — an implied 26.7% probability — is probably the value.
I’m more comfortable fading these teams’ reputation for defense.
These are two of the top offenses in the league, both in goals scored (New England first; Nashville tied sixth) and xG (New England third; Nashville fourth).
Defensively, Nashville have conceded the second-fewest goals in MLS, while playing 10 of 15 games at home. Recently, the Revolution are mostly just outscoring opponents.
At -130 odds and a 56.5% implied probability, the price of betting yes on both teams to score is quite affordable.
With Gil’s absence from the New England lineup, I think there’s plenty of value on backing Nashville +0.5 as well.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-130) | Pick reflecting Gil’s absence: Nashville +0.5
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